INDEPENDENT SURVEYS HAVING EFFECT ON VOTERS

UNCLAS MINSK 000182

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT SURVEYS HAVING EFFECT ON VOTERS

REF: 06 MINSK 1117

Summary
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1. (SBU) Independent pollsters Manaev and Vardomatskiy gave
Ambassador the results of their latest polling conducted in January.
Both pollsters' results indicate that public support for a union
with Russia dropped by 10-15 percent to 35 percent. However,
support for a closer relationship with the EU did not increase
significantly, even though approximately 50 percent of people ages
18-25 believe Belarus should be part of the EU. Lukashenko's
popularity rating (55 percent) and the evaluation of his job
performance were not greatly affected by his handling of the oil and
gas crisis. Only 20 percent of respondents have even heard of the
E.U.'s 12-step proposal sent to the GOB in November of 2006. Sixty
percent of those surveyed would like to have access to a new source
of independent information. End summary.


2. (SBU) Director of the independent polling service IISEPS Oleg
Manaev on February 14 delivered to Ambassador the results of his
latest survey, which interviewed 1474 people between January 20 and
January 30. Director of the NOVAK independent polling service
Andrey Vardomatsky on February 21 also gave Ambassador the results
of his latest survey, which interviewed 1,100 people between January
28 and February 5. Both polls have a margin of error of just over
three percent.

Popularity of Union with Russia Down, EU Steady
-------------- --


3. (SBU) Vardomatskiy noted that Belarusian support for any type of
union with Russia decreased by 10-15 percent following the energy
crisis. While 70 percent of Belarusians believe their country's
relationship with Russia has worsened, the same percentage say their
attitude toward Russia remains "good" or "very good", and 38 percent
still view Russia as an ally. According to Vardomatskiy, 45 percent
of respondents supported increased integration with both Russia and
the EU, but 36.6 percent did not want closer relations with the EU
and 41 percent did not want closer relations with Russia.

"If today there were a referendum on choosing the future of
development in Belarus, how would you vote?"

IISEPS NOVAK
Sept Jan Jan
-------------- -------------- ---
For a union with Russia 37.9(%) 27.3
For integration into the E.U. 23.4 21.0 35.7
For both 23.2 16.4
Against both 6.5 25.2
No answer -------------- 10.1
Against the E.U. 30.5

"If today there was a referendum on merging Belarus and Russia, how
would you vote?"

IISEPS NOVAK
March Jan Jan
-------------- --- ---
Against unification 23.8(%) 39.3 40.1
For unification 57.5 35.1 35.2
Would not vote 8.6 14.0 10.6
Undecided/no answer 11.6 12.8

"If the consequences of increased prices on Russian energy become
difficult for you personally, would you look more favorably on
Belarus joining a union with Russia?"

IISEPS
No 49.0(%)
Yes 35.1
Undecided/no answer 15.9

"Do you think the economic situation in Belarus would change if
Belarus were to unite with Russia?"

NOVAK
Change for the better 31.3
Change for the worse 36.1
Will not change 17.9
Undecided/No answer 14.7

"How would you like to see the Russian-Belarusian union?"

NOVAK
Unification into a single state-equal basis 40.7(%)
Belarus becoming a region within Russia 4.6
No need for unification-just good neighbors 44.4
Hard to say 10.7
No answer 1.1

"How is the process of establishing the Russian-Belarusian union
state developing?"

NOVAK
Successfully; Union will be established soon 6.0(%)
Slowly and inefficiently 35.6
The process has reached a deadlock 46.1
Hard to say/No answer 12.4

"If you believe the process to establish a Russian-Belarusian state
is progressing slowly, then whom do you blame for this?"

NOVAK

A. Lukashenko and GOB leaders 12.7(%)

V. Putin and Russian leaders 29.4
Belarusian opposition forces 7.7
Forces opposed to Putin in Russia 10.3
The U.S. and the EU 7.1
No hampering-process is moving at a natural pace 7.6
Union is a farfetched idea; neither state needs it 23.1
Other 0.2
Hard to say/No answer 15.4

Oil and Gas Conflict neither Helped nor Hurt Lukashenko
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Neither Lukashenko's support rating (55 percent) nor the
level of trust that Belarusians place in him suffered as a result of
his actions during the recent oil and gas conflict with Russia.
Just over 66 percent of respondents believe he did the right thing
and over 87 percent are sure he will remain in power despite any
economic consequences that may result. Approximately 42 percent of
those polled believe Lukashenko's popularity will increase as a
result of the conflict. Nearly 90 percent of those surveyed see the
price Russia charges Belarus for gas as unfair and 49 percent think
Belarus should pay the same for gas as Russians do. Seventy-one
percent of Belarusians view the GOB's decision to impose transit
duties on Russian oil as an appropriate response.

"After the recent conflict between Belarus and Russia over the gas
and oil, how do you evaluate the course that Lukashenko is
following?"

IISEPS
Unchanged: was not right, still is not 28.0(%)
Changed: was right but is now wrong 7.8
Changed: was wrong, now is right 6.2
Unchanged: was and remains right 42.4
Undecided/no answer 15.6

"How do you evaluate the actions of A. Lukashenko during the
Belarus/Russia oil and gas conflict?"

IISEPS
Strong politician, capable of achieving his goals 52.6(%)
Weak politician, gave up too much 25.7
Undecided/no answer 21.7

"How do you relate to the decision of the Belarusian authorities to
sell a 50 percent share of "Beltransgaz" to the Russian company
"Gazprom"?"

IISEPS
Not satisfied 36.9(%)
Satisfied 12.0
Not satisfied, but GOB had no choice 28.8
I do not care either way 12.8
Undecided/no answer 9.5

"As a whole, how do you evaluate the political situation in
Belarus?"

IISEPS NOVAK
Safe 17.0(%) 7.4
Peaceful 54.0 67.8
Strained/Tense 20.3 19.5
Critical/explosively dangerous 3.8 0.9
Undecided/no answer 4.9 4.3

Society Looks Favorably on State Control of Market
-------------- --------------

5. (SBU) A large majority of Belarusians still expect the state to
control the price of goods in their country, and 50 percent of
respondents would rather work for state enterprises.

"In your opinion, must the state adjust the price on goods and
services?"

IISEPS
Yes 73.4(%)
No 19.5
No answer 7.1

"What is your preference for Belarus?"

IISEPS
Market economy without sizable state adjustments 37.0(%)
Market economy with sizable state adjustments 29.6

Planned economy 13.0
Other 4.3
No answer 16.1

"In your opinion, what form of property is more effective?"

IISEPS
Private 47.0(%)
State 39.7
Other 5.6
No answer 7.7


Economic Protests Doubtful; Participate Unlikely
-------------- ---


6. (SBU) Eighty-seven percent of those who responded to
Vardomatskiy's poll said it was unlikely that any sort of mass
action could occur protesting worsening economic conditions near
their home, but up to a quarter indicated that they would be
interested in participating in demonstrations.

"If in your city (region) an action took place protesting worsening
economic conditions (price increases and falling standard of
living),are you prepared to take part?"

IISEPS NOVAK
No 66.8(%) 84.9
Yes 23.0 8.8
Hard to say 10.2 5.5
No answer 15.9 0.8

"How would you assess the current economic situation in Belarus?"

NOVAK
Very Good 1.2(%)
Good 16.2
Fair 58.3
Bad 17.5
Very bad 2.6
Undecided/No answer 1.3

Local Election Results Inflated and Unfair
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7. (SBU) IISEP and NOVAK results indicate that authorities inflated
the official number of voters in the local council elections of
January 14 by 10-15 percent. Eleven percent of those surveyed
complained that they were compelled to vote early, and 4 percent
stated they were pressured to vote for a certain candidate.
Eighty-six percent of Belarusians feel that they have either
"insignificant" or no influence in the political and economic life
of the country.

"In what areas of activity has President A. Lukashenko been
completely successful, and in what areas has he not been?"

IISEPS
Successful/not/no answer
Bringing order 64.1(%)25.9 10.0
Building an independent government 61.3 26.6 12.1
Economic development 57.6 30.7 11.7
The fight against crime 56.7 31.1 12.2
Not allowing oligarchs 54.7 28.2 17.1
Improving the standard of living 49.8 40.3 9.9
The fight against corruption 48.7 37.7 13.6
Cooperation with CIS countries 46.7 36.6 16.7
Development of Belarusian lang/culture 43.9 39.4 16.7
Strengthening morals and morality 43.7 35.8 20.5
Protecting democratic freedoms 33.0 47.5 19.5
Acceptable climate for business 30.4 49.8 19.8
Cooperation with the West 23.5 60.5 16.0
Creation of a union with Russia 20.7 66.0 13.3

"For whom did you vote in the presidential election on March 19,
2006?"

IISEPS

A. Lukashenko 50.7(%)

A. Milinkevich 15.3

A. Kozulin 4.0

S. Gaydukevich 3.6
Against everyone 6.6
Declined to say 7.9
Did not vote 11.2
Undecided/No answer 0.7

"If tomorrow there were a presidential election, who would you vote
for?"
IISEPS NOVAK


A. Lukashenko 50.9(%) 53.8

A. Milinkevich 11.4 3.4

A. Kozulin 4.2 2.1

C. Gaydukavich 1.2 0.6
Other 6.1
Undecided/no answer 23.6

"How did you vote on the 2004 referendum allowing A. Lukashenko to
run for the office of president without term limits?"

IISEPS
Voted in favor 45.4(%)
Voted against 25.4
Destroyed the ballot 2.2
Did not vote 19.0
Voted, but decline to say which way 5.7
Declined to say/No answer 2.3

"Did you vote in the elections for deputies of local Councils in
January of 2007?"

IISEPS
Yes 61.8(%)
No 37.7
No answer 0.5

"When did you vote?"

IISEPS
Early (9-13 Jan.) 23.4(%)
Sunday, Jan. 14 38.5
Did not vote 37.8
No answer 0.3

"Did anyone compel you during the early elections to vote early or
not?"

IISEPS
No 87.1(%)
Yes 11.5
No answer 1.4

"For Freedom" Movement; What's that?
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8. (SBU) IISEPS discovered that 77 percent of respondents had never
heard of the opposition movements "Days of Solidarity" and "For
Freedom". When those that were acquainted with the movements where
asked, ten percent supported the movements and over eight percent
were indifferent toward them. The survey indicates that national
symbols, like the flag, crest, and anthem, are not effective tools
for gathering support for the opposition, as only 12 percent of
respondents disapprove of the symbols in their current form.

TV More Popular than Radio or the Internet
--------------


9. (SBU) According to NOVAK, 88 percent of Belarusians relied on
television as a source of information during the recent energy
conflict with Russia, with 54 percent stating Belarusian TV
broadcasts were the most objective source of information on the
subject. Twenty percent reported having access to satellite TV.
According to IISEPS, 25 percent of respondents stated TV was their
most important source of domestic and international news. Only 15
percent of Belarusians use the internet daily or weekly, and 64
percent do not use it at all.

"Soon from the territory of Poland, with the support of the E.U.,
there will be broadcast, in Belarusian and Russian, a new
independent television channel. Would you like to watch what is
shown on this channel?"

IISEPS
Yes 63.9(%)
No 25.1
Undecided/now answer 11.0

"Not long ago from the states of the EU (in Russian and Belarusian)
new radio stations began broadcasting into Belarus. Do you listen
to their programs?"

IISEPS
Listen Do not
European Radio for Belarus 6.5(%) 92.6
Radio "Ratsia" (Bialystok) 4.4 94.5
"Polonia" (Warsaw) 4.3 94.7
"Belarusian Hroniki" radio
"Nemetskaya Volna" (Bonn) 3.5 95.5
Radio "Baltinskaya" (Vilnius) 2.8 96.3


"What television channels do you watch?"

IISEPS

Belarusian TV 90.5(%)
Russian 87.4
Local 47.1
Cable 35.9
"Euro news" 22.1
Satellite 20.5
Polish TV 13.2
Weekly RTV 7.0

"What newspapers do you read?"

Sovyetskaya Belarusiya 4.6(%)
Argumenty i Fakty 1.6
Komsomolskaya Pravda 1.4
Mestnaya Gazeta 0.8
Narodnaya volya 0.7
7 Nyea 0.6
Respublika 0.6
Zvyazda 0.3
Svobodniye Novosti Plus 0.3

"What radio station do you listen to?"

Mestnoye radio 0.4(%)
Byeloruskoye radio 0.3
Radio Liberty 0.3
Belaruski Khroniki 0.2
Baltiskaya Khavalya 0.1

Comment
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10. (SBU) The recent conflict over oil and gas severely undermined
support for a union with Russia in Belarus. State media brought
this about through a carefully orchestrated propaganda campaign that
skillfully avoided placing any blame for the conflict on Lukashenko.
It is premature to judge whether the decrease in popularity of a
union with Russia will translate into a corresponding increase in
the popularity of a union with the EU (most likely because most
Belarusians lack access to an independent source of knowledge on the
EU). As long as Belarusian's sources of information remain
dominated by state media outlets, public opinion will continue to
closely track the course that the regime crafts for it.

STEWART