MILINKEVICH PROVES HE IS A DIVIDER, NOT UNITER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000177

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH PROVES HE IS A DIVIDER, NOT UNITER

REF: A. MINSK 163


B. MINSK 162

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Opposition coalition leader Milinkevich on February 27
told Ambassador that coalition was fragmented but denied he
was at fault for the divisions and accused left-wing
coalition parties of hijacking the agenda of the upcoming
congress of democratic forces. The coalition leader also
noted preparations for the March 25 demonstration, but had no
details to share with Ambassador. Milinkevich stressed that
he declined the invitation to participate in the Belarusian
opposition delegation to Washington because he could not work
with most of the participants. Ambassador reiterated to
Milinkevich that coalition leaders should learn to work
together despite their differences. End summary.

Milinkevich Disapproves of Washington Delegation
-------------- ---


2. (C) De facto coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich in a
February 27 meeting explained to Ambassador his reasons for
not participating in the Belarusian opposition delegation
trip to the U.S. (ref A). According to Milinkevich, the
composition of the delegation -- Belarusian National Front
(BNF) leader Vintsuk Vyachorka, United Civic Party (UCP)
leader Anatoliy Lebedko, Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC)
Sergey Kalyakin, Irina Kozulina, spouse of jailed
presidential candidate, and Igor Matskevich, head of the
Belarusian Association of Democratic NGOs -- did not
represent a united team, and thus Milinkevich could not "in
good conscience" participate in the delegation. However, he
hoped that the U.S. was not offended by his refusal.
Ambassador told Milinkevich that the U.S. was disappointed
with his decision, given his current status as de facto
opposition coalition leader, but she reassured him that the
U.S. would continue working with all pro-democracy activists
in Belarus.

"No Unity in Coalition"
--------------


3. (C) Milinkevich claimed that not he, but outside forces
were contributing to the divisions within the coalition, most
notably Moscow. Citing Moscow's alleged financial backing of
the BPC and its leader Kalyakin, Milinkevich feared the
congress of democratic forces scheduled for March 17-18 (ref
B) would be decidedly pro-Russian and vote in favor of a
union with Russia. Ambassador doubted the congress would
vote on or in favor of a union, noting that Belarus'
political parties were above all pro-independence.


4. (C) Milinkevich also alleged that the opposition had split
into two blocks -- the left wing, pro-Russia block and the
right wing, pro-European block -- which made it even more
difficult to work together. According to Milinkevich, he was
not the initiator of the "unavoidable" divisions within the
coalition, claiming that the political parties had long
agreed to work independently of each other. Civil society
groups, however, were allegedly throwing their support behind
Milinkevich, particularly the Belarusian Association of
Democratic NGOs, religious groups, entrepreneurs, and
students (septel). He even cited the February 26 conference
of BNF members in Brest who voted to support the "For
Freedom" movement rather than the party's national
leadership.

Milinkevich And Crew Do Not Support a Congress
-------------- -


5. (C) The coalition leader reiterated he and his supporters
doubted the legitimacy or purpose of the congress and,
therefore, would most likely not participate in it.
Ambassador asked Milinkevich if Vyachorka's proposal for
broader participation provided room for compromise.
Milinkevich admitted it was a positive step but did not
indicate whether he supported the proposal.

The Ambiguous March 25 Demonstration
--------------


6. (C) When asked, Milinkevich explained that preparing for
the March 25 demonstration (celebrating Belarus' short-lived
independence from 1918 to 1920) was his current project;
however, he could not provide any substantive details on

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plans. He promised to inform Ambassador as soon as the
planning committee met in the coming weeks. (Comment: With
the event less than four weeks away, one imagines that plans
need to be worked out soon. End comment.)


7. (C) According to Milinkevich, regional activists would
gather in Minsk to participate in the demonstration, which he
assured would be peaceful and inform people that they were
part of Europe. If Lukashenko really wanted to make
democratic reforms, then he too should join the
demonstration. The coalition leader noted that his written
(and public) invitation to Lukashenko had angered many within
the coalition, but he decided it was a good idea, noting the
support it received from the intelligentsia (who make up a
very small fraction of opposition activists). Ambassador
closed the meeting by stressing that the coalition needed to
remain united and develop a common strategy.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Milinkevich repeatedly maintained that he was not at
fault for the divisions within the coalition, but he
constantly referred to activities that demonstrated some
degree of cooperation among the party leaders -- i.e., the
trip to the U.S. and planning for the democratic congress -
in stark contrast to his individualistic, uncoordinated
approach. Indeed, Milinkevich has virtually abdicated his
responsibility as chairperson of the coalition's Political
Council to pursue his "For Freedom" civic campaign, and seems
happy to have hijacked the party operatives of BNF leader
Vyachorka, his closest coalition ally. He is hopeful that
this still-to-be-defined movement will allow him to
demonstrate his capacity as a leader. His belief that the
democratic opposition would vote for any kind of union with
Russia is ill-informed and frankly disturbing. We will
report septel the prospects for Milinkevich's movement, but
suffice it to say that even Milinkevich's most ardent
supporters have been disappointed with hi
s performance thus far.
Stewart