ILO SUPPORTS POSTPONING GSP SUSPENSION FOR BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000159

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL BOB HAGEN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017
TAGS: ELAB PGOV ECON PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: ILO SUPPORTS POSTPONING GSP SUSPENSION FOR BELARUS

REF: 06 MINSK 1188

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Independent trade union leaders have warned Poloffs in
recent meetings that the GOB's "progress" in implementing the
International Labor Organization's (ILO) 12 recommendations
on improving labor rights is purely cosmetic. However, the
ILO has noted some willingness from the GOB to reform and, as
a result, will likely suggest to the EU to postpone the
General System of Preferences (GSP) suspension for another
six months. Independent regional labor union representatives
doubted the GOB would ultimately follow through on any of its
promises and, although they expect the GSP suspension to
affect Belarusian workers, labor union leaders stressed that
the EU should suspend the preferences in order to send a
tough message to the GOB. End summary.

ILO Likely To Support Postponing GSP Suspension
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2. (C) Moscow-based ILO representative Sten Petersen recently
told Poloff that Belarus had made "progress" in improving
labor rights, citing as an example the GOB's decision to
reinstate air dispatcher Oleg Dolbik. (Note: Dolbik,
considered by many as the best air dispatcher in Belarus, was
fired in 2004 after testifying to the ILO about labor rights
abuses in Belarus. The ILO constantly cited Dolbik's
situation in its reports and negotiations (reftel). End
note.) Petersen also claimed that the Belarusian Independent
Trade Union (BITU) was finally able to sign a collective
bargaining agreement with Belneftekhim, the state owned
energy monopoly. Belneftekhim controls, among other
companies, the Grodno Azot (fertilizer) company, Belshina
tire factory, and Polotsk glass fiber factory, which are
major labor rights violators.


3. (C) Consequently, Petersen expects the ILO governing body
in March to postpone the GSP suspension by another six
months. Petersen personally viewed the suspension of GSP as
a poor move, noting that the GSP was the EU's only leverage
over Belarus and once it was suspended, the worst would be
over for Belarus and the GOB could strengthen its repression
on trade unions and workers. According to Petersen, the
threat of GSP suspension made GOB officials "quite scared."
However, Petersen hoped the EU would use this vulnerability
to continue pressing for democracy and labor rights in
Belarus.

Union Leader Supports Postponement
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4. (C) Leader of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade
Unions (BCDTU) Aleksandr Yaroshuk in a February 7 meeting
with Poloff supported Petersen's recommendation to postpone
the decision, reiterating that once the GSP was removed, the
GOB could continue its campaign against trade unions without
facing consequences. Even if the ILO wanted to initiate the
suspension process, as Yaroshuk noted, the GOB's heavy
lobbying efforts in the EU were eroding the already weak
support for the suspension. According to Yaroshuk, Belarus'
European neighbors were also undermining the process, because
the suspension would affect their economies, which partly
rely on Belarusian trade. However, Yaroshuk stressed that
the EU needed to follow through on its threat if no progress
is made by March, or else the EU would lose all credibility.

GOB Efforts Are Cosmetic, Let The Axe Drop
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5. (C) Regional independent trade union leaders in a February
16 luncheon told Poloff that the GOB had made no efforts to
improve labor rights and that the two main "improvements"
made by the GOB -- rehiring union members who were fired and
giving the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Forces (BCDTU) a
seat on the national labor council -- were cosmetic in
nature. Minsk-based ILO representative Nataliya Verishagina
explained that union members who were fired were rehired at
their former enterprises, but were not reinstated to their
original positions, nor were given back their rank, pay, and
benefits. The BCDTU's position on the national labor council
allowed the union to bring issues to the table, but the rest
of the council (all pro-government representatives) refuses

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to discuss them or take them seriously.


6. (C) The union leaders stressed that due to the GOB's lack
of resolve, the EU needed to suspend the GSP. Head of the
Borisov Radio and Electronic Workers' Union (REP) Nikolay
Pokhabov stressed that procrastinating on the suspension
would accomplish little and deputy leader of the Belarusian
Free Trade Union (BFTU) in Novopolotsk Nikolay Stuko
maintained that the EU should stick to tough deadlines.
Chairman of the BITU Vasiliy Korobov admitted that suspending
the GSP would affect workers' wages but he claimed workers
would soon "go broke" anyway as many factories have already
been reducing the wages of all workers.

GOB Labor Law Concept a Flop, Provocation
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7. (C) On January 31, assistant in the Minsk-based ILO office
Yevgeniy Burak gave Poloff a copy of the "concept" of a draft
law on trade unions which Lukashenko approved in October 2006
(reftel). Until recently, the text of the concept was
unavailable. According to Burak, the provisions in the
concept violated international norms, including the ILO's 12
recommendations to Belarus, by setting up minimum membership
requirements that would inevitably shut down independent
unions. Burak suspected the concept would be the basis for
negotiations between the ILO and the GOB, doubting that it
would make it to Parliament in its current form.


8. (C) Petersen called the concept a "provocation"; the same
response the ILO gave to the visiting GOB delegation in
October 2006 when the latter first presented the document.
Petersen informed Poloff that the Belarusian Deputy Minister
of Labor Yelena Kolos and Deputy Prime Minister Andrey
Kobyakov were expected to travel to Geneva February 13-16 to
present to the ILO a new draft of the concept of a trade
union bill. However, if it resembled the original concept,
the ILO would view the GOB's "attempts" to improve labor
rights in Belarus as unacceptable.

Comment
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9. (C) In the wake of increased Russian energy prices for
Belarus and on-going trade disputes with its Eastern
neighbor, the GOB is understandably keen on maintaining the
GSP regime with the EU. The suspension of GSP could result
in a loss of USD 500 million for the Belarusian economy.
However, Lukashenko in recent speeches has made clear that in
order to preserve the status quo in Belarus, he does not plan
to implement radical political and economic reforms. Thus,
it is unlikely that the GOB will ever take the appropriate
measures to fulfill all of the ILO's recommendations on labor
reform.
Stewart