Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MINSK110
2007-02-06 12:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

LUKASHENKO'S "REACHING OUT" TO THE WEST: POSTURING

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO 
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FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5605
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1418
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000110 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S "REACHING OUT" TO THE WEST: POSTURING
RATHER THAN POLICY


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000110

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S "REACHING OUT" TO THE WEST: POSTURING
RATHER THAN POLICY


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (U) In his latest public appearances on January 25-30, the
Belarusian President slammed Russia's energy prices and
indicated that his country was ready for a dialogue with the
West. In usual form, Lukashenko deflected blame for poor
relations with Belarus' neighbors. He admitted that Belarus'
foreign policy was not working but claimed it would not
change drastically trying to appeal to the West. Denying he
was a dictator, Lukashenko compared the opposition to
infamous terrorist groups, called mass media a weapon, and
played down the importance of a parliamentary system of
government. Opposition activists cautioned the West not to
believe Lukashenko's "act" of friendship, warning that the
Belarusian president could not be trusted with implementing
democratic reforms. At this point, Lukashenko's appeasements
to the West are simply rhetorical; neither he nor his regime
have demonstrated that they recognize the need for extensive
democratic and market reforms or have the will to make them.
End summary.

Bringing West and Belarus Closer: If Only Rhetoric Were Fuel
-------------- --------------


2. (U) In a December 25 interview with the German newspaper
"Die Welt," Lukashenko lauded the EU for taking an interest
in what was "really" happening in Belarus during the Russian
gas and oil crisis and forming an "objective" conclusion.
The Belarusian leader noted that the EU's interest could be
the starting point to mending fences with the West.
Lukashenko did not rule out that Belarus in the near future
would accept the Euro as currency, noting that Belarus had no
debt, low inflation, a hard working labor force, and an
intensive, stable economy that produced cheap, quality goods
that were competitive on the EU market. Belarus economy
operated within the parameters of EU market regulations.
Therefore, the EU needed to open its borders to Belarusian
goods. The president invited Western and U.S. investors to

Belarus, claiming that they had nothing to fear and noted
Belarusian plans to modernize existing infrastructure and
create 500 new enterprises within the next five years.

"Time For Dialogue With the West is Here"
--------------


3. (U) The Belarusian leader suggested the EU be more
independent from the U.S. in forming policies towards
Belarus, alleging that the recent EU statement condemning
Belarus' municipal elections as fraudulent was a U.S.
fabrication. Lukashenko said that the time for cooperation
had arrived, adding that he was ready for an open and honest
dialogue. However, the West needed to abandon its "medieval"
visa ban, claiming that Belarusian officials could not "jump
over fences."


4. (U) Lukashenko suggested working with the EU on January 26
while awarding diplomas to PhD recipients. After slamming
Russia, the president stressed that it was time for Belarus,
the land bridge between the East and the West, to have normal
relations with its neighbors. He admitted that Belarus had
too long been "flying with one wing" with its foreign policy,
but denied that Belarus was at fault for souring relations
with the West. He claimed that the EU realized it could not
meet its energy needs without Belarus. However, the GOB
would not drastically change its foreign policy appeasing the
West.


5. (U) Lukashenko in a January 30 meeting with the head of
the Communist Party of Russia Gennady Zyuganov again stressed
that Belarus should seek better ties with the West. He
denied that the current energy row with Russia was the reason
for change in policy to the West, although he spent most of
the speech castigating Russia for using economic levers to
steal Belarus' independence. According to Lukashenko,
Belarus' multi-vector (foreign) policy turned out to be a
single-vector policy. Now it was important to improve
relations with the West, since the EU finally realized that
it depended on Belarus' energy supplies.

Russia Subsidizing Belarusian Economy - Absurd!
-------------- --


6. (U) In the "Die Welt" interview, Lukashenko criticized
Russian President Vladimir Putin's assessment that Russia
subsidizes 41 percent of the Belarusian budget, calling it an

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estimate that even a novice economist would laugh at.
Lukashenko claimed that Russia doubled the price of gas for
Belarus in 2004 and again in 2006 and accused Russia of using
economic pressure to acquire Belarus' modernized oil
refineries. According to the president, Russian citizens
disapprove of their government's behavior towards Belarus
because they still remember fighting side-by-side with
Belarusians during World War II.

Belarus Will Retain Independence
--------------


7. (U) Lukashenko vowed that Belarus would never become part
of Russia as long as he was president. The presidential
"institution" was the main securer of Belarus' sovereignty
and independence. Lukashenko countered arguments that his
actions were violating agreements made on the Russia-Belarus
Union and accused Russia of refusing to accept a constitution
because it did not want Belarus to have equal rights.

"I Am No Dictator," But I Act Like One
--------------


8. (U) Lukashenko claimed that the West had formed a false
image of him as the last dictator in Europe. Belarus was a
democratic country and its leader chosen by the majority of
the people. He added that in Belarus, the commoner rules and
he is not deceived by the negative propaganda financed from
abroad. Lukashenko stressed that his third term as president
was legal because it was put to a referendum and supported by
the majority of Belarusian voters.


9. (U) Lukashenko maintained that opposition forces and
authorities do not have equal rights in any country. He
likened the Belarusian opposition to the ETA and Sinn Fein,
saying that as terrorist groups they were also not allowed on
prime time state television channels in their host countries.
According to Lukashenko, mass media was a "menacing weapon"
that could "execute" a democracy just as easily as a
totalitarian government. However, in the same interview,
Lukashenko claimed that opposition forces in Belarus enjoyed
"free access" to media, such as Radio Free Liberty and other
foreign news sources "sponsored by the U.S."


10. (U) The president voiced his disapproval of a
parliamentary government in the CIS countries, claiming they
do not promote the interests of the people. According to
Lukashenko, Belarus' parliament before his term as president
was full of irresponsible deputies who fought and spread
rumors for self-promotion and not for progress. Fortunately,
the referendum (1996) and Lukashenko's election as president
stabilized the situation and brought Parliament to order,
leaving the Belarusian people satisfied.

The Opposition Reacts
--------------


11. (U) Opposition and civil society activists cautioned the
West about falling for Lukashenko's "act" of friendship. On
January 30, independent pollster Oleg Manaev called
Lukashenko's calls for dialogue "populist tricks" and
predicted that Lukashenko will not meet the West's demands to
reform the market, ensure the freedoms of speech and
assembly, and free political prisoners. Human rights
activist and director of the NGO Charter 97 Andrey Sannikov
warned the West not to sacrifice its principles of democracy
and human rights in order to reestablish dialogue with
Lukashenko.


12. (U) De facto opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich on
January 31, while in Germany meeting with the German
Bundestag's Committee on Foreign Affairs, warned the EU that
trusting Lukashenko to bring democratic change to Belarus and
believing a dialogue can be established with the dictator was
"nave" and "dangerous." Milinkevich criticized the EU for
engaging the Lukashenko regime, referring to Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe president Rene van der
Linden's January 18-19 official visit to Minsk (reftel).
Milinkevich stressed that Lukashenko would use all contacts
with the West to preserve his hold on power. According to
the opposition leader, dialogue was not out of the question,
but only on the condition that the GOB release all political
prisoners, stop cracking down on the independent media, and
implement other democratic reforms.

Comment
--------------


MINSK 00000110 003 OF 003



13. (C) The diplomatic community in Minsk was amused in early
January with Lukashenko's "deep appreciation" for the
"assistance provided to Belarus" by the U.S. and EU against
Russia. Since Lukashenko's remarks, the state media has been
consistently citing PACE President van der Linden's visit as
an example of the West's interest in a dialogue with Belarus
and underscoring the EU's alleged "dependence" on Belarusian
oil products and border security. However, we and,
thankfully, our European colleagues here view Lukashenko's
olive branch to the West with extreme caution. Neither he
nor anyone in his regime has given any indication that
Lukashenko intends to implement the democratic and market
reforms the USG and EU have demanded in exchange for
substantive dialogue. More likely, Lukashenko's lip service
to the West aims to maintain the faithfulness of his domestic
constituency, who may be wondering if Belarus is indeed
isolated. Moreover, as plans progress for a visit to Belarus
by Iranian President Ahmad
inejad, it is clear that Belarus' new realities have forced
the regime to seek partnerships with any country willing to
offer economic and political support, including with the
West. However, he is not likely to forge any new
relationships at the expense of changing his style of
governance.
Stewart