LUKASHENKO THREATENS TO EXPEL AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001064

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2017
TAGS: PREL ODIP OFDP APER BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO THREATENS TO EXPEL AMBASSADOR

REF: A. MOORE-OPERATIONS CENTER E-MAIL 12/30/07

B. KRAMER-MOORE E-MAIL 12/30/07

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) While addressing the press following a holiday visit
to an orphanage December 30, Belarusian head of state
Aleksandr Lukashenko threatened to expel the Ambassador
should the USG impose additional economic sanctions on
Belarus. GOB contacts have been reached by the Embassy but
have not provided any comment; Charge confirmed that
additional sanctions were to be expected in the absence of
any progress from the regime. He also noted that any move to
expel the Ambassador would lead to a reciprocal step by the
USG. Please see a partial transcript of Lukashenko's remarks
(para 2) and draft press guidance (para 4). End summary.

Lukashenko Promises Harsh Response If Sanctions Increased
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2. (SBU) As reported ref A, Aleksandr Lukashenko visited an
"SOS" orphanage in Borovlyani December 30 and took some
questions afterwards from the press. In response to a
question from a journalist on the likelihood of additional
U.S. sanctions on Belarus, which the Ambassador had discussed
during an on-the-record roundtable with independent media
December 13, Belarus' dictator promised a fierce response.
His tirade was subsequently broadcast twice on state
television and was covered widely on the internet. According
to multiple sources, Lukashenko said:

"A question -- What have we done bad to the Americans? What
have we done to the Americans that they would impose
sanctions on us? We don't get mixed up in American internal
affairs, do we? We don't disturb them; let them not disturb
us. We have proposed to them dozens of times, 'Let's discuss
things and cooperate normally. If there are problems, let's
solve them.' But they don't want that. They want to
overwhelm the country and trample the people. I won't let
them."

"What have we done bad to the Americans? Some ambassador,
like the American Ambassador, is going to sit around and blab
about expanding sanctions. We will react in the harshest
fashion, in all areas, politically, economically, and in
other areas. As soon as it hits our economy substantially,
the first who will be tossed out is the U.S. Ambassador. She
attends opposition get-togethers and talks about potential
economic sanctions for Belarus, which makes the situation
more tense. I say this publicly. So, let the U.S.
Ambassador calm down and mind her own business or she can
lose her position here in Belarus ahead of schedule."

"I want to warn the Americans for the first and last time
that we will react quite fiercely, and, trust me, they will
lose their positions not only in Belarus."

"We will survive. We will do without the American dollar.
The Americans don't like what we are doing with their
currency -- we can get rid of the dollar. But they
constantly try to harass us; it won't work. You see, they
don't like it that we are working in Venezuela. OK, give us
a chance and we will work in America. We go where we are
welcome and where we can receive the biggest effect for our
economy from our presence."

Presidential Administration, MFA Have Little Response
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3. (C) Charge called Presidential Administration Foreign
Policy Advisor Valentin Rybakov for a confirmation and
comment December 30. Rybakov was unaware of the statements
and did not respond. On December 31, Charge spoke separately
by phone with both Rybakov and MFA North America Department
Head Sergey Sergeyev to relay the following points,
consistent with ref B: 1) Ambassador Stewart had stated on
December 13 -- and been quoted accurately -- that the USG
would continue to expand sanctions against the Belarusian
regime in the event that there was no progress on democractic
reforms; 2) any step taken to expel Ambassador Stewart from
Belarus would be met with a reciprocal step to remove
Belarusian Ambassador Khvostov from the U.S.; and 3) that EUR
DAS Kramer planned to relay the same points to Ambassador
Khvostov in Washington. Both Rybakov and Sergeyev were aware
of Lukashenko's statements, but could not provide any
response other than to thank Charge for his points; Sergeyev
pledged to share them with MFA leadership as soon as possible
(December 31 is a local holiday).

Draft Press Guidance

MINSK 00001064 002 OF 002


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4. (SBU) Post proposes the following draft press guidance
for response to press inquiries on Lukashenko's December 30
threats.

-- We are aware of the statements made by Aleksandr
Lukashenko to the Belarusian press December 30 on U.S.
sanctions against the Belarusian regime.

-- The U.S. Ambassador to Belarus, Karen Stewart, noted
December 13 that if the Lukashenko regime failed to release
political prisoners and take other steps towards democratc
reform, additional sanctions would be imposed.

-- This is a clear expression of our consistent policy on
Belarus and we stand by Ambassador Stewart's statement.

-- The keys to improved U.S.-Belarus relations remain the
Belarusian regime's release of all political prisoners and
its respect for basic democratic norms, including free
elections and freedom of expression and association.

Comment
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5. (C) While Lukashenko's December 30 remarks have every
appearance of being spontaneous and uncoordinated, they
nevertheless reflect his growing unease at the possibility of
additional U.S. economic sanctions. (Note: In comparison, as
reported previously, most GOB interlocutors have gone out of
their way to claim that the sanctions have had no impact.
End note.) That Lukashenko blames Belarus' "shift from the
dollar," or its relations with Venezuela for these sanctions,
is as absurd as it is groundless. The fact that Lukashenko
continues to look for external, geopolitical factors to
explain U.S. sanctions is just more evidence that he is
unprepared to take the political steps necessary to roll them
back.
MOORE