Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MINSK1009
2007-12-11 12:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

BELARUSIAN SOVEREIGNTY NOT UNDER THREAT FROM PUTIN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR BO 
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VZCZCXRO8792
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #1009 3451251
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 111251Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6710
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/USMISSION USEU 0255
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1753
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001009 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN SOVEREIGNTY NOT UNDER THREAT FROM PUTIN
VISIT

REF: 06 MINSK 1019

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001009

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN SOVEREIGNTY NOT UNDER THREAT FROM PUTIN
VISIT

REF: 06 MINSK 1019

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) With the December 13-14 visit of Russian President
Vladimir Putin to Minsk imminent, official Minsk has moved to
tamp down wild rumors in the local and international media
about the end of Belarusian sovereignty through the signing
of a Union State Constitution. According to a report from
ITAR-TASS's Minsk bureau, Aleksandr Lukashenko's press
secretary Pavel Lyogkiy expressed surprise at the notion that

SIPDIS
the constitution would be signed during this visit, while the
Minsk-based Standing Committee of the Union State said that
the constitution was not even on the agenda for the upcoming
meetings.

Comment
--------------


2. (C) We do not believe Belarus' sovereignty is under
threat. It is possible that some mutual agreements will
result, but the end of Belarusian statehood is not inherent
in that. As before, Lukashenko has little interest in any
concrete steps that would limit his power in Belarus and
relegate him to second-tier (or lower) status in a Union
State. He has even less interest in concluding such an
agreement with a much stronger interlocutor like Vladimir
Putin (reftel). If, as some reports contend, the original
rumors of the signing came from Minsk, it is likely part of
Lukashenko's efforts to impress a captive domestic audience
with his manliness in defending Belarus, and continue his
geopolitical gamesmanship abroad -- where gestures toward
Russia are intended to frighten Europe into concessions.
(Note: At a meeting with EU Heads of Mission December 11,
Latvian Ambassador Mora expressed sympathy for such a
position. End note.) We must continue engagement with EU
partners to ensure that cheap concessions do not result. At
the same time, there is no question that official Minsk is
deeply unhappy about the selection of First Deputy Prime
Minister (and Gazprom chairman) Dmitriy Medvedev as a Russian
presidential candidate: Lukashenko and his cronies know that
they have no chance of regaining Moscow's previous subsidies
should Medvedev succeed Putin.
MOORE