KOZULIN CONTEMPLATES NEW HUNGER STRIKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001004

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PHUM PREL PINR BO
SUBJECT: KOZULIN CONTEMPLATES NEW HUNGER STRIKE

Ref: A) 06 Minsk 1278

B) State 164397

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Aleksandr Kozulin plans to begin another hunger
strike in March 2008, his wife Irina told the Charge in a
meeting December 7. Upset with the legitimacy that he felt
Lukashenko had gained through appeals for dialogue with the
regime by some opposition figures and European officials,
Kozulin has allegedly decided that such a radical step was
necessary. Irina Kozulina said that she would not honor
her husband's request to announce the upcoming hunger
strike on December 10, Human Rights Day, because she felt
that he had not yet formulated a list of achievable
demands. She confirmed to the Charge that the Embassy
should continue its attempts to visit Kozulin. The Charge
noted that the USG remained committed to its demand for
freedom for Kozulin and all political prisoners, and gave
Kozulina summary points from this week's meetings of the
Belarusian opposition delegation in Washington. End
summary.

Aleksandr Kozulin Prepared for Another Hunger Strike
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2. (C) At their request, the Charge met December 7 with
Irina Kozulina, wife of former presidential candidate
Aleksandr Kozulin, as well as with their daughter Olga and
Kozulin's lawyer (and former political prisoner) Sergey
Skrebets. Irina said that she and her children had visited
Kozulin recently and that, in spite of the extremely hard
life in detention, he was surviving. Both she and her
husband were upset with the legitimacy that they feel has
been given to Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko's
illegal rule by recent calls for dialogue both from some in
the EU and from the Belarusian opposition. The Kozulins
believe that such steps only further ensconced Lukashenko
in power, and that acceptance by Europe and Russia meant
that Lukashenko could keep Kozulin and other political
prisoners in jail as long as he wished. According to Irina
Kozulina, her husband had decided that drastic action was
necessary, and planned to start a new hunger strike on the
90th anniversary of Belarusian statehood (March 25, 2008).
[Note: Kozulin held a 54-day hunger strike in 2006 (ref A),
which he ended only when the USG raised the subject of his
detention and broader concerns in the U.N. Security
Council. End note.]


3. (C) Skrebets was particularly critical of the
Belarusian opposition, saying that they called on
Lukashenko to engage them in dialogue, and had expressed
willingness to contest elections against him without
calling for improvements to the electoral code or vote
counting practices. The lawyer added that Kozulin hoped,
by his actions, to unite all those opposed to the regime,
including youth; students, pensioners, and Chernobyl
liquidators who had lost benefits; the intelligentsia and
those who work in unregistered NGOs. Olga Kozulina noted
that her father was indeed prepared to die.

Still Unclear About Demands
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4. (C) Irina Kozulina noted that her husband had requested
that she announce his planned hunger strike on December 10,
World Human Rights Day. Kozulina said that she would not
make the announcement yet, however, because her husband had
not yet formalized his demands. She felt that to strike
without a list of achievable demands was to condemn her
husband to a painful death pointlessly. [Note: Irina
Kozulina, now taking alternative herbal remedies for
advanced cancer rather than chemotherapy, was more
energetic than in past meetings, but was quite gaunt and
wan. End note.]

Focus on the Dictator
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5. (C) The Charge emphasized that the release of all
political prisoners remained the key to future of bilateral
relations. He explained that while there may be some who
favor dialogue with the regime, insistence on the release
of all political prisoners in Belarus remained official EU
policy as well, and the USG continue to work with EU
partners to keep our policies on Belarus firm and united.

MINSK 00001004 002 OF 002


The Charge added that an opposition delegation currently in
Washington had raised Kozulin's plight -- and that of the
five other political prisoners -- with President Bush
December 6, and further noted that the President and
Secretary Rice (ref B) had utilized the opposition's visit

SIPDIS
to underscore USG commitment to freedom and democracy in
Belarus.


6. (C) The Charge stressed that Kozulin and his efforts on
behalf of the opposition were very important for Belarus,
even during his imprisonment. He told Irina and Olga
Kozulina that whatever course of action Kozulin and his
family chose, that they should focus their actions,
demands, and dissatisfaction where they belonged, on the
dictator. While acknowledging that some in the EU and in
the opposition in Belarus had -- without positive result --
sought dialogue with Lukashenko, the Charge stressed that
it was Lukashenko alone who was guilty for the lack of
freedom in Belarus.

Comment
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7. (C) Leaving the Embassy, Irina Kozulina asked that her
husband's plans not be discussed publicly. Ideally,
Kozulin will rethink a second hunger strike, which is
unlikely to succeed if targeted against the regime, and
will disrupt the opposition unhelpfully if directed against
it. With Irina Kozulina's health continuing to fail as
well, the Kozulins are passing the political torch to their
daughter Olga, who has been selected as an opposition
candidate in the 2008 parliamentary elections. While
Kozulin himself has been a complicated figure, we cannot
help but think that Belarus would be better off with him
alive -- even in jail -- than as a martyr.

Moore