ELECTION SITREP 2: GOB OBSTRUCTS OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000010

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC BO
SUBJECT: ELECTION SITREP 2: GOB OBSTRUCTS OPPOSITION
CANDIDATES DURING CAMPAIGN

REF: A. 2006 MINSK 1149


B. 2006 MINSK 1273

C. MINSK 002

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) This is a second situation report covering the
Belarusian local council elections scheduled for January 14.
With ten days left until Election Day, authorities are
preventing opposition candidates from printing campaign
materials and meeting with voters and restricting radio
airtime. Opposition coalition party leaders brought their
complaints forward at a January 4 press conference, but had
not come to a joint decision on whether to boycott the
elections. De facto coalition leader Milinkevich and others
castigated the party leaders for not using the election
process to communicate to the public and viewed a boycott as
a betrayal to the voters. Despite the GOB harassment and
restrictions and the coalition leadership rhetoric, regional
and rural opposition candidates continue getting their
message out. End summary.

Publishers Refuse to Print Campaign Materials
--------------


2. (U) In late December and early January, opposition
candidates running in the local council elections scheduled
for January 14 began complaining that Minsk-based printing
presses were refusing to print their campaign leaflets.
Reasons for denials varied from "lack of paper," or a "large
workload," to Belarusian KGB harassment. Opposition
candidates reported that printing presses often demanded the
candidates provide written permission from the Central
Election Commission (CEC). The CEC allegedly sent a letter
to the Information Ministry in late December, but so far
printing presses in Minsk were still refusing service to
opposition candidates.


3. (C) UCP leader Anatoliy Lebedko at a January 4 press
conference told reporters and diplomats at least 16
opposition candidates in Minsk were refused printing
services. Later that day, Belarusian National Front (BNF)
deputy head and Minsk city council candidate Ales Yanukevich
confirmed to Poloff that printing presses had refused service
to him and other candidates. State-owned establishments
claimed they were "backlogged" with orders and private
printing presses openly admitted that Belarusian KGB officers
"suggested" they not cooperate with opposition candidates. A
few candidates in Minsk were able to print their campaign
leaflets, but only after deleting portions of the text to
satisfy the printing press and authorities.

No Printed Material For Campaigning
--------------


4. (C) Yanukevich noted the inability to print leaflets as
the biggest problem opposition candidates were currently
facing. The early election process begins on January 9 and
so far most candidates have no printed information to give
voters. Candidates were not legally allowed to print
campaign material themselves because 1) the CEC requires
leaflets to be marked with appropriate serial numbers and
data and 2) candidates are not allowed to use their personal
funds in campaigning nor are they allowed to print materials
abroad. Yanukevich informed Poloff that he and other
candidates would print their leaflets on privately owned
typographs. Of course it would be illegal, but they
desperately need written information to give to voters before
early voting begins. By the time they get caught, they could
possibly have delivered thousands of leaflets to home mail
boxes.

No Place to Campaign
--------------


5. (U) Authorities are restricting opposition candidates from
meeting with voters. On December 27, Lebedko announced that
Minsk authorities rejected all his applications to meet with
voters in public places. (Note: According to the new
amendments to the Electoral Code, candidates are required to
apply for permission to meet with voters in public apart from
pre-designated and inconvenient times and places (ref A).
End note.) Gomel city council candidate and organizer of
Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement Viktor
Kornyenko on January 4 confirmed this, reporting that Gomel
authorities refused to allow him and other opposition
candidates to meet with voters in downtown Gomel. Both

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Lebedko and Kornyenko vowed to hold the meetings anyway.


6. (C) Yanukevich described his recent experience in which
Minsk authorities granted him permission to meet with voters,
but only in a park on the very outskirts of town. Attempts
to rent space indoors were met with refusals. According to
Yanukevich, authorities would only grant permission for
events in the most uncomfortable places so that access to
voters was minimal while maintaining the image the opposition
candidates were freely able to meet with constituents. In
oblast centers and small or rural areas, authorities often
flatly refused opposition candidates permission to meet with
voters without reason.

GOB Restricting Air Time
--------------


7. (C) The CEC granted all candidates a five-minute radio
spot free of charge. However, candidates reported that radio
station administrations systematically denied them the full
five minutes, played the speeches at low-peak listening
hours, or did not play the speeches at all. During a
December 24 regional trip to Beloozersk (Brest oblast),BNF
member and local council candidate Dmitriy Tretiyak told
Charge and Poloff that authorities only gave him and the
other seven registered opposition candidates in the community
two-minutes of radio time (septel). When he asked the radio
station why only two minutes, the administration replied that
city council candidates were only allowed two minutes,
district council candidates were allowed three minutes, and
oblast council candidates were allowed the full five minutes.



8. (U) Gomel authorities on December 28 did not broadcast BNF
Conservative Christian Party member and Gomel city council
candidate Vladimir Shitikov's five-minute address.
Immediately after recording the speech, in which he lambasted
GOB policies, the local election commission charged Shitikov
with violating the electoral code, but would not identify the
violation. On January 3, the Berezovskiy radio station
failed to broadcast BNF member and regional council candidate
Anatoliy Sakharusha's recorded radio address during peak
listening hours, citing "technical difficulties."
Sakharusha's address was moved to another, less popular time.
State-backed candidates' addresses were aired twice.

To Boycott Or Not
--------------


9. (U) At a January 4 press conference, leaders of opposition
parties announced they were still undecided about whether
they would join the Belarusian Communist Party's (BCP)
boycott of the elections (ref B). The leaders claimed the
results of the elections were already determined and cited
the authorities' increased use of double standards and
complete disregard of electoral regulations. Kornyenko told
the leaders not to "fall before the (gun)shot," and advised
them to consider withdrawing from the race only after all
campaigning opportunities had been exhausted. BNF leader
Vintsuk Vyachorka said his party would continue the campaign
to the end, noting that from the start they had no illusions
that the local elections would be fair. BPC deputy leader
Yelena Skrigan claimed candidates who withdrew from the
elections were still participating in door-to-door campaigns
to explain to voters why the elections would be illegitimate.
Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Kozulin) acting chairman
Anatoliy Levkovic
h viewed the local elections as a "technical matter," but
stated that they would not boycott.


10. (U) The coalition leaders' complaints of the election
process and discussion of boycotts drew sharp criticism from
Milinkevich. According to Milinkevich, the mere discussion
of boycotts was evidence to the coalition leaders' lack of
self-confidence after failing to organize a widely
advertised, nationwide local election campaign. Milinkevich
noted that the opposition was fully aware of the conditions
in which they would have to campaign before the election
process even began. Each candidate must make use out of
every opportunity to inform people and talk of withdrawing
should be done only after campaign opportunities are
exhausted, according to Milinkevich. He blamed the candidate
registration denials of "some" opposition activists on those
activists' failure to comply with "simple" requirements.


11. (U) Leader of the Belarusian Party of Freedom and
Progress and member of the coalition's Political Council
Vladimir Novosyad on January 4 also criticized boycott
discussions. According to Novosyad, withdrawing candidates
from the race would be giving the authorities "a gift," and

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stressed that the local council elections, despite the
manipulations and fraud, were an opportunity to communicate
with the population. Candidates who withdraw from the race
are "betraying" voters who were not afraid to give their
signatures in support of that candidate's registration.
Novosyad plans to ask the Political Council to not recognize
as delegates to the second congress of democratic forces
those who failed to submit their signature lists to election
commissions for registration and/or boycotted the election.
According to Novosyad, such people were "idlers" and had no
right to participate in the congress. (Note: More on the
preparations (or lack there of) on the congress in septel.
End note.)

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Boycotting the elections would be seen as a large cop
out by the opposition. Coalition leaders and candidates knew
long before the election campaign began that the process
would be marred with harassment, manipulation and fraud, with
the outcome already determined. A belated boycott would give
the impression, much to the GOB's benefit, that the
opposition is incapable of commitment. For the time being,
only the BCP is calling for a boycott.


13. (C) Milinkevich rightly accused some candidates of
half-heartedly conducting campaigns, although Milinkevich
himself has not always used every opportunity that has come
his way. Belarusian Helsinki Committee head Tatyana Protko
December 21 told poloffs that many opposition candidates were
just "making the motions" and not really committed to the
elections (ref C). However, this is not the case for many
opposition candidates if the regions and cities outside of
Minsk, who are using their radio spots (although only
two-minutes in length) ajd campaigning door-to-door (with or
without obficial campai'n material) to get their message kut
(septel).
Moore