SECURITY, MIGRATION, AND ELECTIONS IN MICHOACAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 005773

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, INR, INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ELAB PHUM MX
SUBJECT: SECURITY, MIGRATION, AND ELECTIONS IN MICHOACAN

Classified By: Charles Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b)

1.(SBU) Summary: Michoacan voters will go to the polls
November 11 to elect a new governor, state legislature, and
113 mayors. In a visit to the state the week of October 15
poloff discussed Michoacan's unique social and political
environment, its security landscape and upcoming elections
with academics, state and community leaders. This cable
focuses on the election, migration issues, and the
status/impact of the GOM's counter-drug operations in the
state. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Although the National Action Party (PAN) has
campaigned hard to capture President Calderon's home state,
the Party of the Democratic Revolution's (PRD's) Cardenas
family has held sway over the politics of this central-west
state for years. Michoacan is one of five states currently
controlled by the PRD (governed presently by Lazaro Cardenas
Batel, grandson of the popular 20th century President Lazaro
Cardenas del Rio) and will serve the site of Mexico's last
major election in 2007. Not only does Michoacan receive the
greatest share of migrant remittances, it is also one of the
most violent states in the country and was the first state
into which Calderon sent military troops to combat organized
crime when he took office in December 2006.

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Elections
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3. (SBU) Despite the power of the Cardenas dynasty and
active campaign support of PRD founding father Cuauhtemoc
Cardenas (father of the current governor),the most recent
poll conducted by leading newspaper El Universal reports only
a marginal lead for PRD gubernatorial candidate Leonel Godoy
over PAN candidate Salvador Lopez Orduna. According to the
poll, Godoy is running at 37%, Lopez Orduna at 35%, and the
PRI's Jose de Jesus Reyna Garcia at 25%. At the same time,
leading newspaper Reforma conducted their own poll which
gives Godoy a clear lead in the race with 40.1% of the
intended vote and Lopez Orduna with 34.6%. When compared to
a poll from a month ago, the intended vote for Lopez Orduna
remained virtually unchanged at 34%, while Godoy has
increased from 35.2% to 40.1% at the expense of the PRI
candidate, who had dropped from 28.4% to 23.9% of the
intended vote. The candidates have held two televised
debates (on October 17 and 20),focusing on job creation,
public security, and education.


4. (C) Notably absent from the PRD's campaign is the presence
of failed PRD presidential candidate and leftist leader
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). All party leaders and
state officials agreed that AMLO's participation would do
more harm than good for Godoy. Referencing the deep-seated
rivalry between the two leftist leaders, state congress
president Gustavo Arias Garduno (PRD) told poloff "this is
Cardenas territory...there is no room or love for Lopez
Obrador here." Although Arias acknowledged Godoy allied with
AMLO in his post-electoral protest movement, he noted that
Godoy had since distanced himself from the radical leader and
returned to his "Cardenas roots." Moreover, going against
AMLO-doctrine, Godoy recently announced he would recognize
Calderon's presidency.

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Migration
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5. (U) Michoacan is a source of heavy migration to the U.S.,
and ranks first among Mexico's 32 states in both the total
amount of remittances received from Mexicans living the U.S.
and the percentage remittances represent as a proportion of
the state's GDP. Estimates of the number of Michoacanos
currently living in the U.S. range between 2 to 2.5 million.
In 2006, Michoacan received USD 2.4 billion in remittances,
representing approximately 11% of Mexico's total remittance
flow and making up over 15% of the state's income.


6. (SBU) According to Dr. Jesus Martinez Saldana, Director
General of the Michoacan State Institute for Migrants,
emigration has been a way of life for Michoacanos for over
100 years and the "tradition" was reinforced with the
agricultural crisis of the 1970s. The pattern of emigration
was usually seasonal/temporary -- most migrants would return
after a period of time. A different pattern has emerged in
recent years, noted Dr. Martinez, with fewer migrants
returning. He attributed this trend to increased U.S. border
security, which has made U.S. entry and exit more risky and
expensive. He projects the current wave of Mexican migrants
will stay in the U.S. permanently and seek to bring their

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family up to the U.S. to join them.


7. (SBU) The social impact of migration has been costly,
creating a vicious cycle of labor shortages and contributing
to an increasing number of social problems such as alcoholism
and drug use. PAN state president Dr. Fransico Morelos said
children in Michoacan were growing up without fathers and, in
some cases, mothers.


8. (SBU) This trend has a law enforcement impact, he
asserted. Increasingly the cartels are taking up the
father-figure role for Michoacan's youth, making the state a
recruiting ground not only for young drug dealers and
enforcers, but also consumers.


9. (SBU) Local leaders, who once supported emigration as an
honor and necessary for the survival of their rural towns,
are now campaigning on policies to curb the flow. In
separate meetings with poloff, the PAN, PRD, and PRI state
party leaders said their gubernatorial candidate had a plan
to curb emigration.


10. (SBU) The PAN's Lopez Orduna said he would establish a
500 million peso fund for relatives of migrants to start
their own businesses and separately would dedicate 200
million pesos for housing programs, healthcare services, and
job creation for those that stay. PRI candidate Reyna is
proposing more jobs and more active cultural exchange
programs with migrant communities. The PRD's Godoy would
focus on developing the state's agro-industry as well as the
creation of a secretariat for migrants and a development
bank.

11.(SBU) In addition to continuing many of the social
programs and public policies of the current governor, Godoy
also promises to build an international airport in Caleta de
Campos in order to attract domestic investment and
international tourism to the state's beaches.

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Security
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12. (SBU) Another prominent issue in the electoral debate is
public security. President Calderon, with the backing of
Governor Lazaro Cardenas Batel, has dispatched thousands of
troops to fight warring drug cartels in Michoacan. During
the second gubernatorial debate, Godoy said the fight against
organized crime was the federal government's responsibility,
but he stressed that if he won, the state government would
offer its full cooperation to federal operations. Godoy
argued that "jobs and education ... are the best weapons to
defeat crime." Meanwhile, Lopez Orduna called for better
coordination among security forces and stiffer penalties for
offenders.


13. (C) Although no evidence points to the participation of
kingpins in the gubernatorial race, Governor Cardenas worries
the cartels may be active in municipal contests in the
mountainous region known as the "Tierra Caliente." (This
region is infamous for growing herbicide-resistant marijuana,
producing methamphetamines, and harboring members of a
quasi-independent extension of the Gulf Cartel known as "La
Familia.") More specifically, Gov. Cardenas suggested the
cartels may be supporting certain municipal candidates in
exchange for positioning their own members as municipal
police officers.


14. (C) Gov. Cardenas told poloff the security situation in
Michoacan had improved significantly due to both the presence
of military troops and a territorial truce between the two
major drug cartels. Although Cardenas attributed more
importance to the cartel truce in explaining the reduced
number of drug-related homicides, he said the GOM's
counter-narcotics (CN) operations were necessary since the
cartels had significantly infiltrated state/local police
forces and were beginning to expand into new areas.


15. (C) There has been significant collaboration between the
military and state government to prevent this expansion and
retake territory back from the cartels. He expects a
long-term military presence in the state, with most
Michoacanos supporting the CN operations.

16.(C) Cardenas suggested other ways in which the cartels are
trying to protect their interests in Michoacan including
public relations efforts (i.e. human rights accusations
against the military) and developing ties to subversive
groups. Cardenas began receiving information in November
2006 that the cartels were interested in forming ties with

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"subversive groups" (not necessarily the EPR). He referenced
a newspaper advertisement taken out by "La Familia" that came
out, coincidentally, at the same time he received this
information. The advertisement was well-organized, included
a mission and objective statement and a clear political tone
more characteristic of subversive groups. Cardenas continues
to receive information about possible narco-guerilla links,
but could not confirm the validity of this nexus. However,
he believes the information is serious enough that the GOM
should investigate and the USG should be aware of the
possibility "even if there is only a 1% chance it may be
true."


17. (C) Biographical Note: According to Cardenas advisor and
childhood friend Arturo Aguilar Bueno, Cardenas will seek the
PRD presidential nomination for 2012. After February 2008
when his term as governor ends, Cardenas told poloff he was
going to take a break from politics and is considering
invitations to work in Washington and Brazil. Aguilar later
told poloff (November 7) that President Calderon had offered
Cardenas a position in his Cabinet as Secretary of Social
Development, which he turned down because it would have upset
PRD party officials. However, Cardenas has accepted
Calderon's more recent offer of a 2-year ambassadorship to
Brazil -- a position he will take 6 months after his term
ends in February 2008. Since he will be outside the country,
Cardenas does not expect this posting with the Calderon
government to ruffle too many PRD feathers. End Note.

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Comment
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18. (C) While narco-traffickers appear to have steered clear
from direct involvement in Michoacan's gubernatorial race,
they are likely exerting influence in enclaves where they are
active. There is also speculation that the cartel truce is
only temporary -- for the purposes of the election/transition
--and violence will eventually spike up again once the new
government is in place. We will keep close tabs on the
number of narco-related violence after the election/during
the transition to track developments.


19. (C) Although both the popularity of Calderon in his home
state and the administration's CN operations have provided a
boost in the polls for PAN candidate Lopez Orduna, neither
may be enough for the PAN to capture the state house, as most
polls show its candidate trailing by between two and seven
points. Moreover, the PAN is almost certain to lose the key
mayorship of Morelia, the state capital -- Lopez Orduna's
former position until announcing his bid for governor -- the
PRI's candidate is polling ahead of his competitors. The
Michoacan elections may prove to be another 2007 electoral
setback for the PAN, and at least temporarily reverse PRD's
sagging fortunes. End Comment.


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http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
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