Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MEXICO2576
2007-05-21 23:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

PRI SET TO WIN YUCATAN GOVERNORSHIP

Tags:  PGOV PREL MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1994
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2576 1412309
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212309Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7067
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS MEXICO 002576 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR WHA/MEX

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: PRI SET TO WIN YUCATAN GOVERNORSHIP

UNCLAS MEXICO 002576

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR WHA/MEX

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: PRI SET TO WIN YUCATAN GOVERNORSHIP


1. (SBU) Summary. With 80% of the votes counted, it appears
that PRI candidate Ivonne Ortega has won the race for
Governor in the Yucatan. The elections occurred in a climate
relatively free of conflict or controversy with some
irregularities noted in smaller towns. The elections should
not be viewed as a reflection of President Calderon's
performance, but rather of political dynamics at the state
level. End summary.


2. (SBU) On Sunday, May 20th, in the first electoral contest
since Felipe Calderon assumed power, Yucatecos went to the
polls in large numbers to vote for state and municipal
representatives. The Yucatan Institute for Electoral
Procedures and Civic Participation (IPEPAC) announced at noon
that it had completed counting 80.52% of the votes. Results
to date show Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI)
Candidate, Ivonne Ortega, leading with 49.70% of the vote.
Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate, Xavier Abreu, is
trailing with 42.66%. At this point, there is a difference
44,200 votes separating the two candidates. Ortega's victory
looks decisive in all districts, even in the state capital,
Merida, which was predicted to be a PAN stronghold. Abreu
has not yet formally ceded the election. However, he admits
that the "tendencies are not in his favor."


3. (SBU) It appears that the PRI has regained a majority in
the state legislature, having obtained 10 representatives.
PAN gained 5 representatives. PAN appears to have retained
control of Merida, with Cesar Bojorquez, former head of the
water authority, leading in the race for mayor.


4. (SBU) Voters turned out in record numbers, with seventy
percent of those eligible choosing to participate. Current
Governor, Patrico Patron Lavado, came to power with 68.45 %
of eligible voters participating. Turnout in last year's
federal elections was 66.92%.


5. (SBU) Voting in Merida was calm with no irregularities
noted. There were rumors of party representatives buying
votes in small municipalities, including Rio Lagartos,
Tizimin, and Tixcokob. In Tixkokob, Antinio Patron Laviada,
brother of the current governor, was accused of election
tampering by members of the PRI. He was detained by the
police for questioning and released.


6. (SBU) One day after the election, public officials have
started the arduous task of clearing Merida streets of
campaign propaganda, including widely disbursed colored
plastic banners. The head of municipal public services
estimates that his staff will remove approximately 30 tons of
campaign material.


7. (SBU) Embassy comment: Although this was Mexico's first
state-wide election since President Calderon took office, the
Yucatan contest should not be viewed as a referendum on
Calderon's performance. A leading Mexico City political
analyst told Poloff it would be difficult to draw national
conclusions from the elections, which he believed reflected
local political conditions, dissatisfaction with the current
PAN governor, and the personalities of the gubernatorial
candidates. The Yucatan has been a PRI stronghold for
decades, and the current governor's lack of popular support
undermined the PAN candidate whose performance by most
accounts was lackluster at any rate. Close state
congressional and mayoral races suggest that Abreu's weakness
was responsible for the gubernatorial loss.


8. (SBU) Embassy comment continued: Political analysts also
assess that, while the loss may undermine the credibility of
PAN's state apparatus, as well as its national leadership, it
could be good news for President Calderon. A PRI loss would
have complicated Calderon's ability to win PRI agreement for
aspects of his legislative agenda, such as fiscal reform; a
bitter, drawn out challenge to the results would have
certainly complicated inter-party relations at the national
level and complicated PAN's bargaining position in the
federal congress. Abreu's outright concession will be a
positive signal. End Embassy comment.


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