Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MBABANE443
2007-10-03 14:29:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Mbabane
Cable title:  

SWAZILAND POPULATION DECLINE

Tags:  KHIV PGOV SOCI WZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 031429Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MBABANE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2772
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
CDC ATLANTA GA
UNCLAS MBABANE 000443 

SIPDIS


PLEASE PASS TO USAID

DEPT FOR AF/S AARON HALL

S/OGAC FOR AMB MARK DYBUL, TOM KENYON, JANICE TIMBERLAKE,
MICHELLE MOLONEY-KITTS

USAID WASHINGTON FOR KEN YAMASHITA, HOPE SUKIN

USAID PRETORIA FOR CARLEENE DEI, GARY JUSTE

CDC PRETORIA FOR OKEY NWANYANWU

CDC ATLANTA FOR DEBBIE BIRX, R.J. SIMONDS, TADESSE WUHIB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KHIV, PGOV, SOCI, WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZILAND POPULATION DECLINE

UNCLAS MBABANE 000443

SIPDIS


PLEASE PASS TO USAID

DEPT FOR AF/S AARON HALL

S/OGAC FOR AMB MARK DYBUL, TOM KENYON, JANICE TIMBERLAKE,
MICHELLE MOLONEY-KITTS

USAID WASHINGTON FOR KEN YAMASHITA, HOPE SUKIN

USAID PRETORIA FOR CARLEENE DEI, GARY JUSTE

CDC PRETORIA FOR OKEY NWANYANWU

CDC ATLANTA FOR DEBBIE BIRX, R.J. SIMONDS, TADESSE WUHIB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KHIV, PGOV, SOCI, WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZILAND POPULATION DECLINE

1. This message was drafted by State, CDC and PEPFAR personnel at
Embassy Mbabane.

2. SUMMARY: On Sept 27 the Swaziland Central Statistical Office
(CSO) released the provisional results of the 2007 Population and
Housing Census. Population census is the primary data source used
in national and sub-national planning for health, social and
economic programs. The last national census was conducted in 1997,
noting a population in excess of 900 thousand residents of
Swaziland. Preliminary results indicate a marginal decline in the
Swazi population, thereby failing to meet United Nations and USG's
estimates of 1.1 million Swazi nationals by 2007. Local newspapers,
among others, have speculated that the decline could be related to
the nation's AIDS pandemic. The GKOS has asked the public not to
speculate on potential causes of the declining population until the
final report is complete in mid-2008. END SUMMARY.

3. Two types of population counts were reported in the 2007 census.
The de facto population (which includes persons sleeping away from
household and against which 1997 census counts can be accurately
compared),has declined marginally from the 1997 census estimate of
929,718 to 912,229 in 2007. The 2007 de jure population count
(includes household visitors) of 953, 524 is the provisional
population estimate for Swaziland; it will be used until a more
detailed evaluation of data completeness and quality can be
considered in the final census report due mid-2008. The trend in
the de jure population can not be examined as the 1997 census did
not collect these data.

4. Prior to this census, the most widely used estimate of
Swaziland's population had come from the United Nations Population
Division and US Bureau of Census, which arrived at a total projected
population (by 2007) of 1.1 million persons. This projection
incorporated assumptions about trends in key factors such fertility,
adult and childhood mortality (including AIDS-related deaths),and
net migration.

5. COMMENT:

Given pro
visional results of the 2007 census suggesting lower
population levels than expected and a negative growth rate, the
following need to be examined:

A. To what extent (if any) is the census under-reporting persons?
Is there a sound
means to adjust the estimate to more reflect current population
levels and allow an
accurate assessment of trends?

B. Did previous projection/estimation procedures (UN Population
Division and US Bureau of Census),assume an overly optimistic
scenario regarding HIV/AIDS-related mortality rises and fertility
declines? Did AIDS impact, including negative growth rates, hit
earlier than expected?

C. Should more detailed analysis of the data reveal that indeed
Swaziland's
population has already started to decline, what are the factors
contributing to the decline? The following must be considered:
a. Rapid declines in fertility due to increased use of modern
contraception (pills, injections, etc),increased condom use, and
decrease in woman's health and fecundity due to HIV disease and poor
nutrition.
b. (Expected) rapid rises in AIDS-related adult mortality,
c. Rises in childhood mortality, as a result of both the direct
effects of AIDS, and indirect effects of AIDS impacts at familial,
household and community levels. The 2006/2007 Swaziland DHS
provides supporting evidence of deterioration in child survival
prospects with an increase in infant mortality from 78 to 85 deaths
per 1000 live births.
d. Inability of health systems to cope with huge increases of
inpatient and outpatient loads related to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis
epidemics, consequently lowering the quality of care, leading to a
tendency of ill persons to stay away from health facilities.

6. It is likely that all of these factors (and perhaps others) are
part of the causal explanation behind the concerning trends. The
consequences of increasing death rates and negative population
growth are manifold. In addition to the swamped health care system,

all social support systems and especially those dependent on stable
family and community structures have been and will continue to be
negatively impacted. The future of Swaziland's next generation of
leaders is comprised by a deficit of adult care providers
(especially mother and fathers) in households. Swazi industry is
handicapped by a shortfall of trained, well-adjusted labor force.


7. Early reactions by local authorities indicate a clear
disappointment in the 2007 census results. Further analysis of the
data is required to confirm negative growth, but if confirmed, the
findings may be used by the Swazi people, donor nations and
international organizations, to urge the GKOS and the King to
mobilize Swazi society and available external resources towards
improved HIV prevention and mitigation programs.

PARKER