POST ELECTION UPDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000086

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC PINR LT
SUBJECT: POST ELECTION UPDATES

REF: MASERU 81 AND PREVIOUS

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CLASSIFIED BY: June Carter Perry, Ambassador, EXEC , STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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1. (C) While the 2007 national elections in Lesotho are over,
the questions that remain post election are still lingering
throughout the country and particularly in the capital city of
Maseru. The overwhelming victory between Lesotho Congress for
Democracy (LCD) (61 national assembly seats -- all of which were
derived from constituency representation) has become cause for
concern for the new opposition, the All Basotho Convention (ABC)
party particularly (with only 17 seats) and, despite the
assurances of ABC leader Thomas Thabane, has already resulted in
challenges in which at least one demonstration of chanting
youths erupted on the evening of February 20. We understand a
major ABC rally is expected on Sunday, February 25. One of the
more inflammatory radio stations called "Harvest Radio" was
taken off the air late February 20, and the manager, a South
African national, was deported February 20/21 according to the
South African High Commissioner. Further investigation into
what actually happened in terms of the government role in this
incident is still under investigation. Although the South
African station manager was deported, he may return to challenge
GOL charges that his license fees had not been paid. The GOL
seems eager to move forward swiftly with inauguration of new
members of Parliament and Prime Minister Mosisili and to provide
security during opposition rallies February 23-25. End Summary.

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MMP System Countdown
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2. (C) The caution that had been put forward by the community
team of observers that the method of mixed members proportional
representation (MMP) could easily be manipulated by political
parties. The count has sent numerous Lesotho political parties
into ongoing debates about manipulation by the ruling LCD and
the smaller National Independence Party (NIP),claiming that the
NIP is serving as a decoy for the LCD. According to reliable
sources, already a number of LCD ministers and parlimentary
seats are now taking seats as members of the NIP; confirmed
among these is the former Minister of Tourism, Culture and
Environment N'tsinyi, who also serves as the Deputy Executive
Secretary of the ruling LCD party. As the specifics of former

SIPDIS
ministers who will take smaller seats becomes clearer, post will
also advise. As this overall situation (i.e. the manipulation
of the MMP) becomes clearer, we should be able to unearth the
counter measures various smaller parties will take to both
publicize their perception of the process and the legal actions
they plan to take to contest the final results (septel). In
conversation with BNP leader General Lekhanya on February 22, we
learned he plans a joint opposition rally Sunday (2/25) with the
ABC and a possible demonstration February 23, as well as taking
legal action against the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

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Prime Minister's Reactions
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3. (C) Over a frank and friendly lunch hosted by the Ambassador
at the CMR February 21, the international development partners
reviewed their commitment to meeting with heads of the major
political parties and confirmed meeting with General Lekhanya of
the Basotho National Party on February 22. The South African
High Commissioner (SAHC) used a previously scheduled appointment
with the Prime Minister (PM) on February 20 to request, on
behalf of the Diplomatic Corps, a brief meeting with him.
Interestingly enough, two things came out of the South African's
conversation with the PM. First, he was very hesitant to meet
with the Diplomatic Corps saying he feared criticism of himself
and his party. South African High Commissioner William Leslie
replied that the purpose of the meeting would be to congratulate
his party and to restate the interest of the international
community in security so that the development of Lesotho could
continue through the programs already established and those that
are being developed. Upon hearing this comment, reportedly, the
PM changed his mind and said that in that case he would be happy
to receive the Chiefs of Mission. Secondly, surprisingly
enough, the PM professed not to know about the shutdown of the
Harvest FM Radio station, and he immediately called the Deputy
Prime Minister (DPM) to discuss this matter. (Comment: We
would like to note here that in 2006 the Ambassador was able to
secure the Article 98 Agreement with the U.S. during the absence
of the Foreign Minister and through her own direct briefings on
this matter with the Prime Minister. It is our sense that full

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disclosure by Ministers to the Head of Government certainly does
not always take place as it should. End Comment.) The PM has
volunteered that he does not always obtain full information from
members of his current Cabinet on a number of issues.


4. (C) The PM is to be inaugurated on February 23 by the King
and to appoint his Cabinet within days of that ceremony. During
a February 21 press conference (septel),the PM responded to
questions about the media shutdown, the MMP and the nation's
future. He pointed to USG programs - The Millennium Challenge
Account (MCA) (once/if agreed) and AGOA - as a "boost" to
Lesotho's economic development. The new members of the National
Assembly are to elect their leader and deputy February 22 and
convene after the PM names his new Cabinet.

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Comment
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5. (C) The combination of the overwhelming victory by the LCD,
questions about the implementation of the MMP system and
uncertainty about the media house that faced closure problems
and the pending major opposition rally this weekend, could, if
not fully addressed, lead to a controversy on a variety of
fronts.


6. (C) In the security area, the GOL appears eager to end the
"vacuum" that currently exists by prompt swearing-in ceremonies.
The Ambassador was informed several months ago of the coming
Cabinet shuffle by the Ministers of Finance and of Foreign
Affairs. With the ruling LCD's ministerial losses in many
constituencies, the make-up of the new Cabinet is highly
anticipated. We do wish to emphasize that the small 50-100 ABC
youth gathering that took place on February 20 was handled very
professionally by the police without any negative consequences.
The Ambassador also spoke late February 20 with the Deputy Prime
Minister (who also serves as Minister of Home Affairs and
Security) and during that conversation, he said that all
security offices are under orders to maintain stability
throughout the city and throughout the country. Post will
continue to track all of the above issues carefully and to take
security precautions as needed. End Comment
PERRY