LESOTHO: CALM ELECTION DELIVERS WAKE-UP CALL TO GOVERNING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV EAID LT
SUBJECT: LESOTHO: CALM ELECTION DELIVERS WAKE-UP CALL TO GOVERNING
PARTY

REF: MASERU 75 AND PREVIOUS

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1. SUMMARY: Early unofficial results from Lesotho's national
election on February 17 indicate that the governing political
party, the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD),will likely
retain control of Parliament and form a new government. The
LCD, however, received a significant wake-up call from the
country's voters: at least five leading cabinet Ministers were
ousted from the National Assembly; the party's previous
domination of the legislature has dissipated; and the upstart
All Basotho Congress (ABC) will arrive in Parliament as a
formidable opposition. Opposition parties, however, have raised
serious concerns over vote tabulation in several of Lesotho's 80
"constituencies" (electoral districts),which could delay
publication of final election results, including the
distribution of the National Assembly's 40 proportional seats.
Despite these disputes, opposition leaders indicate they will
not attempt to annul overall results or obstruct the formation
of a new government. Instead, they claim that they intend to
pursue their grievances through the courts. Official results
may be presented by auditors February 21 or 22.


2. International observers, including a substantial U.S. mission
election monitoring team, concur that balloting on February 17
appeared to be free, fair, and peaceful, representing a victory
for democracy in this developing nation. Lesotho's Independent
Election Commission (IEC) mobilized over 20,000 individuals to
operate 2,558 polling stations throughout the country. Voting
was slow and laborious, but was also remarkably orderly, calm,
and transparent. There were numerous procedural discrepancies
at individual polling stations--primarily the result of
logistical challenges and inexperienced electoral workers--but
observers saw no evidence of systematic malfeasance. Voter
turnout appears to have been lower than the 2002 election (60%
turnout),but may have surpassed 50 percent of the 900,000
registered voters. Embassy Maseru's robust monitoring mission,
the most significant diplomatic observation operation for this
election, covered seven of Lesotho's ten districts, producing
valuable insights into how the election unfolded in a variety of
different settings. From this vantage point, Lesotho's polling
appeared fully transparent and possibly a model for other
African states. END SUMMARY.

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EARLY RESULTS: WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE LCD
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3. According to the IEC, as of early February 20 the governing
LCD party had secured victory in 62 of Lesotho's 80
constituencies. The upstart ABC opposition party, founded only
four months ago by former LCD minister Tom Thabane, had scored
17 seats. The small Alliance of Congress Parties (ACP) had won
a single seat. (Note: In the 2002 national election, the LCD
dominated the National Assembly, winning 79 of 80
constituencies. End Note.) The official 2007 election audit
has not been completed, however, and results therefore remain
unofficial. Futhermore, opposition parties have disputed the
ballot count in several constituencies. Once the tally for the
80 constituencies is finalized, the IEC will distribute the 40
remaining proportional seats on the basis of the constituency
results as well as a second ballot that voters used for
political parties.


4. Preliminary results indicate that the ABC faired best in
urban areas, almost scoring a slam dunk in the heavily populated
district of Maseru (comprised of 18 constituencies). The power
of the incumbency, however, appears to have given the governing
LCD a slim majority of the total National Assembly seats.
Nonetheless, at least five leading members of cabinet (and
leaders of the LCD party) were ousted, including the veteran
Ministers of Health; Tourism, Environment and Culture (who also
serves as the deputy Secretary General of the LCD); Natural
Resources; Public Works; and Agriculture. The LCD Assistant
Minister of Agriculture also lost his seat.

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Embassy Maseru's Monitoring Mission
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5. U.S. Mission Maseru conducted a thorough but targeted
monitoring effort during Lesotho's 2007 National Assembly
elections. This effort involved the deployment of Embassy
officers, FSNs, EFMs, and TDYers at polling stations in
Lesotho's four most populous districts and three outlying
districts. In each of Lesotho's four most populous districts
(Maseru, Leribe, Berea, and Mafeteng),which combined represent
two-thirds of the nation's population, we placed two Embassy
teams. One team remained close to the district capital, while
the second roved through the district's countryside. To avoid
geographic over-concentration, three separate teams deployed to

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three remote districts (Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, and Qacha's
Nek). The Embassy had also requested NDI support through USAID.
In partnership with the Lesotho Council of NGOs, also under USG
funding, NDI placed monitors in over 200 polling stations.
Additional teams, including the Ambassador, DCM, and Emboffs,
monitored election polling in Maseru City and election events at
Lesotho's National Results Center.

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Notes From the Field
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6. U.S. Embassy and other international monitoring teams
reported that a calm, though (sometimes painfully) slow emphasis
on following rules and procedures characterized the election
process. As each voter cast two ballots (one as a direct vote
for a candidate from one of 80 constituencies and a second for a
political party),the potential for voter confusion was high.
However, IEC personnel patiently explained the procedure to
voters, and most teams reported that the process was smooth.
Some problems occurred with voter registration lists, a source
of high concern over recent weeks; SADC observers cautioned the
GOL and the IEC to address this issue before future elections.


7. At all of the 90-plus polling stations visited by U.S.
Embassy personnel, a contingent of party agents (representatives
of the political parties) was present. Party agents witnessed
the entire process, from the sealing of ballot boxes at the
opening of the polls until the final vote tallies were
officially recorded. Party agents were free to raise
objections, but were remarkably quiet at most stations. During
tabulation, party agents were shown every individual ballot and
told by the polling station's presiding officer his/her ruling
on the ballot. Although this technique allowed for maximum
transparency, the process prolonged vote counting for up to two
days at some locations as officials conducted tabulation by
candle light. Party agents for the leading parties--the LCD,
ABC, and BNP--were present at 92%, 88%, 86%, respectively, of
the 90-plus polling stations visited by Embassy teams.
Subsequent to Election Day, opposition parties (including the
ABC and the BNP) have reported that party agents objected to the
final tabulation in several constituencies, claiming that IEC
workers have reported fabricated local results to the National
Results Center.

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What Were the Problems?
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8. Despite the Embassy teams' overall positive impressions,
procedural and logistical problems were observed at most polling
stations. In one polling station in Berea district, polling was
stopped for two hours when a GOL vehicle dropped off a number of
individuals who where prevented from voting by locals who did
not believe that they were properly registered to vote at that
station. IEC mediators arrived at the scene, and the situation
was soon resolved. A local watchdog radio station reported
other instances of voters questionably transported by government
vehicles. Also, GOL ministers made frequent appearances at
polling stations, although it is a matter of interpretation
whether their presence violated Lesotho's electoral "Code of
Conduct".


9. Of the 90-plus stations visited by U.S. Embassy Teams:

- 7% opened late. Three of these were in Maseru district, and
most opened within one hour of the 7:00 a.m. national opening.
- 9% were missing some electoral materials (usually ballot box
seals). With the exception of one Maseru polling station, at
which missing ballots delayed voting by three hours, the missing
material did not cause significant problems.
- 7% of ballot boxes were not properly sealed. No Embassy
teams concluded that this affected the integrity of the election.
- 17% of the Embassy teams reported slow voting that could
cause potential voters to leave before casting their ballots.
(NOTE: Each polling station had approximately 400-500 registered
voters, requiring the processing of 40-50 voters per hour to
accommodate full turnout. Most stations, however, averaged half
that pace. END NOTE.)
- 20% of stations visited had the presence of senior GOL
officials and other candidates for office.
- At 27% of polling stations, at least one individual was not
allowed to vote due to registration issues. However, when such
cases were explored by Embassy monitoring teams, most of these
cases seemed justified under Lesotho's electoral law and party
agents did not object.
- Most teams reported poor location of the secret balloting
area or potential problems with secrecy. However, teams agreed
that this was a hypothetical problem rather than an actual one,

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as there was no apparent voter intimidation or objection by
party agents.
- At 9% of polling stations, some confusion was reported
regarding the two ballot system.


10. The presence of political candidates, including senior GOL
officials, at polling stations was viewed by some observers and
opposition parties as skirting electoral laws that prohibit
campaigning during the final 24 hours of the election season.
According to local press reports, Foreign Minister Moleleki, who
was observed mingling with voters inside several polling
stations on election day, allegedly distributed large quantities
of computer equipment to constituents within Maseru district on
the eve of the election.


11. The Commonwealth and SADC delegations' debriefs for
international partners pointed out the positive aspects of
Lesotho's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system (a potential
model for other states),but also warned against the dangers of
alliances (such as that of the ruling LCD party with the
National Independence Party -- NIP) undermining the true purpose
of the MMP system, i.e., allowing a broader range of
representation.

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COMMENT: Calm and Excruciatingly
Slow, but Transparent
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12. While all election observers (including the African Union,
SADC, SADC Parliamentary Forum, the Electoral Institute of
Southern Africa, the Commonwealth, diplomatic missions, the
NDI-supported Lesotho Council of NGOs, and the Christian Council
of Lesotho) noted problems with the execution of voting at
certain polling stations, all also recognized that Lesotho's
2007 elections had, on the whole, passed into history with
remarkable calm and respect for the rule of law. Teams
monitoring vote tabulation at individual polling found the
process painfully slow and frustratingly repetitive, but
completely transparent. Many issues which had alarmed the
international community in recent weeks, such as the state of
Lesotho's voter rolls, did not emerge to such an extent on
polling day to undercut the ability of most voters to cast their
ballots.


13. While Lesotho appears to have cleared the polling hurdle,
all eyes are now turning to the next challenges - the vote
tabulation process, the formation of a new government, and the
peaceful acceptance of election results by all stakeholders.
END COMMENT.
PERRYJC