Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MASERU73
2007-02-16 11:04:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Maseru
Cable title:  

WINNER TAKE ALL: UPDATE ON LESOTHO'S ELECTION EVE

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PREL PINR LT 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9974
OO RUEHRN
DE RUEHMR #0073/01 0471104
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 161104Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY MASERU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2620
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHMR/AMEMBASSY MASERU 2967
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000073 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
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FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/15/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL PINR LT
SUBJECT: WINNER TAKE ALL: UPDATE ON LESOTHO'S ELECTION EVE

MASERU 00000073 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: June Carter Perry, Ambassador, EXEC , STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000073

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/15/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL PINR LT
SUBJECT: WINNER TAKE ALL: UPDATE ON LESOTHO'S ELECTION EVE

MASERU 00000073 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: June Carter Perry, Ambassador, EXEC , STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (S) Over the past few weeks, the Ambassador met once or
twice weekly with other Chiefs of Mission (COM) as well as
political party leaders, the Minister of Foreign Affairs
(FOMIN),Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) Chairperson,
international observers and civil society representatives. One
of the most revealing sessions was the February 14 meeting with
FOMIN, during which he predicted an overwhelming win by the
ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) party. We raised
the possibility of a coalition government (after a limited
briefing by the COMs and the Commonwealth Team),Foreign
Minister Moleleki dismissed this out of hand saying that the LCD
could never consider a coalition with renegade former
Communications Minister Thabane, ABC Party Leader. He stated
that the Basotho National Party (BNP) would actually come in
second and that the LCD would take 70 to 80 of all of the "First
Past the Past" national assembly seats in the National Assembly.
The collective thinking following our Diplomatic Corps members,
as well as those of observer teams from SADC, the Electoral
Institute from South Africa (EISA),the National Democratic
Institute (NDI),the African Union (AU) and the Commonwealth, as
well as NGOs, is that the election could be closer to call than
the LCD is willing to reveal at this point.


2. (S) During the February 15 final meeting between the
international community, the IEC Chair and members, and outside
audit teams and political party stakeholders, and also
representatives from the ruling party, Deputy Prime Minister,
Minister of Trade (Executive Secretary of the Party),and the
Minister of Tourism (Deputy Secretary of the Ruling Party),
former Minister Thabane, ABC head, and the representative of the
BNP. Former military leader General Lekhanya did not attend,
but raised questions through his spokesperson. Participants at

the session raised points of remaining confusion over voter
lists, urged continued radio communications with the public by
the IEC, and asked that all parties accept the results of the
February 17 elections and ensure the process was carried out in
a transparent manner. Despite the goodwill shown by the IEC,
serious discrepancies remain in voter identification cards and
lists. The call for peace and security was echoed most strongly
by the Commonwealth Team, who endorsed the statement by the U.S.
Ambassador and vocal commitment by Thabane to reiterate the need
for stability to his young followers.


3. (S-NOFORN) One small political party, the National
Independent Party (NIP) had views expressed by its 93 year old
leader charging that his party's alliance with the LCD to ensure
success of the ruling party, called into question the
judiciary's decision in rejecting his appeal not to proceed with
this alliance. Putting the history of Lesotho's troubled
elections in the past in context however, several
observers/training teams including NDI and the Commonwealth
believed that in a short period of time, the IEC had
accomplished a great deal mobilizing voter lists despite the
questions that one expects will arise at some of the over 2500
polling stations across the country. The Diplomatic Corps is
continuing to meet on a nearly daily basis regarding potential
security problems and we are coordinating closely with the South
African High Commissioner on border departures if necessary.
The RSA Minister of Defense agreed to provide air assistance to
Lesotho over the electoral period. End Summary

--------------
Supreme Confidence -- Or is it Arrogance of Power?
--------------

4, (C) The extreme level of certitude the LCD holds was
relayed to the Ambassador as she discussed the elections with
Foreign Minister Moleleki on February 14. Already attired in
his campaign safari shirt with wide brimmed hat at hand,
Moleleki asserted, "not only are we (LCD) going to win, we are
going to overwhelm them." He had been asked by us and others in
the last two weeks how he could know this since the elections
had not taken place yet. He was cavalier in responding that the
LCD had met virtually "all" of its constituents and knew they
were fully committed. When asked about the possibility of a
coalition government, Moleleki retorted "absolutely not! These
people (ABC) have tried to kill us -- first me, then (party
executive secretary) Trade Minister Malie. There is no way we
could consider a coalition." The FOMIN also predicted that the
old Basotho National Party (BNP) would come in second, not the
ABC. (Note: He has told others we know the same thing.) Also

MASERU 00000073 002.2 OF 003


exuding confidence was Malie himself who sought out the
Ambassador following a February 15 meeting of stakeholders. He
asserted, as head of the LCD's party secretariat, that all of
his people had been in the field; all the groundwork for victory
was laid; and they were only awaiting final results which would
vindicate their predictions of success. Moleleki and Malie are
both LCD lynchpins. However, while Malie told us privately
several weeks ago that he would be moving into the private
sector (but retain his party role),Moleleki said to us he does
not know which portfolio he would hold in a new LCD government.
"I have decided to not focus on that," he asserted, but on
negotiating closure of a farm he is purchasing in South Africa.
Despite his stated acceptance of lesser posts (he mentioned
"Agriculture"),it is widely believed the FOMIN covets the
Deputy Prime Minister's chair en route to an eventual Prime
Minister position in the future.

-------------- --------------
Information Gathering; Diplomatic Corps Activities and
Sustainability
-------------- --------------


5. (S) At this critical juncture in Lesotho's history, we have
met and discussed in depth a wide range of stakeholders for the
IEC Chair and Commission members as well as party leaders and
members. In order to assure that all development partners had
the opportunity to hear from all stakeholders, we Ambassadors
have met at least weekly (5-6 envoys) in private settings.
During these very frank and informal exchanges, the
representatives (U.S.; Irish, South African, Chinese and UN)
shared information we had received in our bilateral talks with
party leaders. Dominating our sessions were two factors; the
existence of "snap" (translated as "ambush" in Sesotho) and the
potential for a close election, probably involving the LCD and
the ABC. How will the ruling party react? How would youth
leagues of the ABC accept a win or a defeat? As a group we had
heard, individually, from LCD leaders that they are certain they
will win. The ABC leader has been "confident" but has caveated
his statements with phrases such as, "if we don't win ......"
All development partners consider the stakes very high with
Lesotho in the SADC Chair, its profile and electoral outcome are
viewed as impacting the entire region. Each bilateral partner
has significant investments: we through AGOA, PEPFAR, a
near-the finish-line Millennium Challenge Account package and
Peace Corps, a mainstay of both the education, health and
economic development sectors. The South Africans are entrenched
on the water and investment sides; the Chinese in textiles as
well as small businesses (with 5000 PRC nationals) across the
country. The EU is involved in numerous agricultural, health
and financial sector projects; and the Irish and the UN in
health care as well as infrastructure programs.


6. (S) Through bilateral and multilateral meetings with the
Deputy Prime Minister, Cabinet and party leaders, each envoy has
unequivocally expressed the need for stability, no matter who is
in power after February 17. We have been assured that the
current GOL understands the high stakes and the leading
opposition party leader has promised each donor continuity of
on-going negotiations and initiatives should he win.

--------------
Judicial Issues and Security
--------------


7. (S) During the February 15 stakeholder meeting, NIP Leader
Manyeli recalled, in speaking before the group, that the LCD had
made in essence an unholy alliance with his party in order to
ensure a winning majority on February 17. Manyeli alleged that
the Prime Minister himself had come to Manyeli's home one
evening and said that he wanted the NIP to be the LCD's "shadow"
partner during the national elections. Manyeli went on at
length about how he told the Prime Minister that his party was
not willing to do this and that he felt it would be an
abrogation of the party's tenets to do so. Shortly thereafter,
Manyeli said his deputy and several other party members had a
separate meeting with the Prime Minister wherein they pledged
their support for his proposition. When the list of parties was
published by the IEC, Manyeli's party bore the eagle symbol of
the ruling LCD. Manyeli went before the High Court to plead his
case; the court agreed with him. However, 48 hours later, an
appeal by the Deputy President and other members of the NIP
reversed the initial positive decision for Manyeli. At the
February 14 convocation, Manyeli said he felt this demonstrated
that the judiciary had not acted in an evenhanded manner, a
point that the Commonwealth Observer Team had, earlier in the
week, shared with a limited number of other observers in the
international community. In the end however, based on our
discussions with observers and with the IEC, there has been, in
their view, no law broken since the appeal reflected the court's
final decision. This issue could resurface after the results of

MASERU 00000073 003.2 OF 003


the elections are finally tallied. Stakeholders view the
presence of independent auditors hired by the IEC as a good sign
to help ensure transparency throughout the process that will
take place on Saturday and in the review of any disputes after
the polls close. Post will report on developments as they
occur.


8. (S - NOFORN) Of special interest on the security front, the
South African Minister of Defense visited Lesotho February 15 to
meet with the Deputy Prime Minister following a request by the
Lesotho Defense Force which had indicated lack of certain
aircraft. The Deputy Prime Minister briefed the Diplomatic
Corps and others on the outcome of his discussions with the RSA
Defense Minister the very same day. Although initially, Lesotho
had requested three helicopters, the cost of 30,000 Rand per
hour for a projected 3-day stay was considered prohibitive. In
the end, the South Africans agreed to place two helicopters at
no charge in Lesotho on Friday, February 16 and to place one on
standby at the Bloemfontein Airport (RSA) about 90 minutes from
Maseru, in case it might be needed. The South African High
Commissioner, during our Chiefs of Mission meetings over the
past months has taken great pains to reassure all Ambassadors
and the UN that he would facilitate border crossing of our
communities should any disruptions so require. At present, post
has held a number of security briefings for mission employees
and the assessment of the ARSO from Gaborone is that the
situation is "tense but relatively stable". Post has deployed
observers along with our National Democratic Institute (NDI)
team, and its 300 local NDI/Lesotho Council of NGO's
participants for Saturday, February 17, to observe the electoral
process at polling places in 7 of Lesotho's 10 districts. The
2600 polling places will also have present key observer missions
to include the US-funded SADC PF, the Electoral Institute of
South Africa contingent led by former Botswana President Masire
and police security teams.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (S - NOFORN) Although it is impossible to completely predict
the outcome of this election, it would appear that the LCD and
the ABC are the top contenders despite the FOMIN's assertions
that the BNP might come in second. We do not, of course, have
full, inside information on what political deals may have been
cut between the major and minor parties. Regarding security,
the government has continued to reiterate its own commitment to
peaceful polling across the country despite the fact that an
estimated 10,000 citizens may not be properly registered; this
situation could lead to small flareups in various locations.
The ARSO has instructed all USG participants in the process to
both report such incidents and to leave immediately should they
occur. Likewise, Peace Corps has made special provisions for
its 5 Chinese American volunteers as the Chinese ethnic group
has been mentioned in a derogatory manner by several political
parties and defended by none. To avoid any mistaken identity of
these American citizens as members of the Lesotho Chinese
community, methods are in place to secure them at a location
across the border if necessary. The IEC expects to have some
results late Saturday, but we anticipate that more accurate
information will be available on Sunday, with the official,
neutral, auditors' report on all balloting not available until
Tuesday, February 20. With this election, finally, Lesotho does
indeed stand at a crossroads in terms of its efforts to lift
itself from the Least Developed Country category and move
forward, with support from donors, on a path of greater
democratic and economic growth and sustainable security. End
Comment.
PERRY