TANZANIAN FM DELIVERS SADC REPORT TO LESOTHO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000337

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL LT
SUBJECT: TANZANIAN FM DELIVERS SADC REPORT TO LESOTHO

REF: MASERU 258 AND PREVIOUS

MASERU 00000337 001.2 OF 002



1. Summary: On June 11, Tanzanian Foreign Minister Membe, in
his capacity as representative of the Chairperson of SADC's
Troika on Politics, Defense, and Security, delivered a much
anticipated report to Lesotho on the country's contested
February 2007 national election. The Troika's recommendations,
however, merely stated an obvious need for dialogue, for
measures to improve upon the Lesotho's Mixed Member Proportional
Model prior to future elections, and for legislated fixes to
prohibit manipulation of the model. The opposition will no
doubt be disappointed that SADC has failed to address its
immediate grievances, while the GOL will look to the report as a
means to move beyond the impasse and return to governance
issues. How the opposition reacts to the report, particularly
with its boisterous supporters, will define the next chapter in
this saga. End Summary.


2. The Foreign Minister of the United Republic of Tanzania,
Bernard Membe, arrived in Lesotho on Sunday, June 10 to deliver
a long-awaited report by the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) Troika on Politics, Defense, and Security
regarding Lesotho's contested February 2007 elections and
subsequent distribution of parliamentary seats. Membe met on
June 11 with Lesotho's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prime
Minister, and leaders of political parties. Although Membe met
with members of the Maseru diplomatic corps during a SADC
Ministerial in March, as did a SADC Organ Troika delegation in
April, there are no indications that Membe planned to hold such
a briefing on this trip. He is expected to depart Lesotho the
evening of June 11.


3. The SADC Organ Troika effort is the result of a decision
made in Dar-es-Salaam on March 29 at a SADC Extraordinary
Summit. The Summit had agreed to field a Ministerial
Assessment Mission to Lesotho in light of an unresolved
political impasse, including a debilitating work stoppage, that
followed an otherwise peaceful February election. Leading
opposition parties have contested the governing party's alliance
with the rump leadership of small opposition party and the
Independent Electoral Commission's subsequent distribution of
National Assembly seats which accorded the governing LCD an
ample majority and retention of government power (Note: The
leading opposition party, the ABC, also formed a similar
alliance for election purposes. End Note). According to a copy
of the main report and executive summary obtained late on June
11, the SADC Organ Troika made the following recommendations:

Begin Text of "SADC Ministerial Troika Recommendations to the
Chairperson of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security
Cooperation:"

i) Considering the overarching nature and far-reaching political
and security implications of the above findings and the
suggested recommendations, it is recommended that:

ii) The Chairperson of the Organ in consultation with the TROIKA
of the Organ should urge the Government of the Kingdom of
Lesotho to initiate a formal political dialog with a view to
resolve the political problems between the opposition parties
and the ruling party.

iii) SADC should facilitate the internal political dialogue.

iv) SADC may wish to nominate one of its "imminent Persons" from
the Former Presidents to facilitate and supervise the internal
political dialogue process.

v) MMP (Embassy Note: "Mixed Member Proportional") electoral
model external experts in combination with people who have a
full Lesotho political background should be engaged to
facilitate the review of the model.

vi) SADC should urge all political stakeholders to respect the
outcome of the democratic elections and address their existing
political differences peacefully through dialogue.

vii) A formal request should be made by SADC and the Government
of Lesotho to UNDP and the German and USA Governments for
financial and technical assistance.

viii) The process for internal dialogue in Lesotho should start
immediately to pre-empt the possibility of repeated waves of
tension.

ix) SADC should urge the Government of the Kingdom of Lesotho to
put in place a specific law and regulations aimed to protect the
spirit and intent of the MMP model as proposed by the SADC
election observer mission report.

x) SADC should implore the Government of Lesotho to promulgate
legislation aimed specifically to regulate the formulation of

MASERU 00000337 002.2 OF 002


alliances and coalitions inside and outside parliament and
during and between elections.

End Text (Note: Recommendations v, ix, and x appeared in the
Main Report, but not in the Executive Summary. End Note).


4. Comment: The SADC report on Lesotho's elections has been
the subject of intense speculation and rumors in the Mountain
Kingdom over the last two months, including anticipation by some
opposition members that SADC would recommend retroactive
redistribution of parliamentary seats. As expected by more
realistic observers, however, the report merely rehashed the
history of Lesotho's electoral process, the allocation of seats,
and various election-related developments. The recommendations
state the obvious need for dialogue, for measures to improve
upon the MMP model prior to future elections, and for legislated
fixes to prohibit manipulation of the model by using proxy party
alliances. The opposition will no doubt be disappointed that
SADC has failed to address its immediate grievances, while the
GOL will look to the report as a means to move beyond the
impasse and return to governance issues. How the opposition
reacts to the report, particularly with its boisterous
supporters, will define the next chapter in this saga. End
Comment.
MURPHY