"ABC 1, 2, 3": OPPOSITION LEADER CALLS ON AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MASERU 000027

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC LT
SUBJECT: "ABC 1, 2, 3": OPPOSITION LEADER CALLS ON AMBASSADOR

REF: 06 MASERU 458

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CLASSIFIED BY: June Carter Perry, Ambassador, EXEC , STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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Summary
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1. (C) Former Minister of Communications Thomas Thabane visited
the Ambassador the morning of January 12 and expressed his own
concerns about instability during the electoral period. The
Ambassador told Thabane frankly that she was concerned about
reports that the youth league of his party might take specific
actions since he had appeared on a South African broadcasting
program to say that he could not be responsible for the actions
of others. He denied saying that. The Ambassador also sought
to determine why the former minister had decided to establish
the new "ABC" party. Clearly his own personal disappointment at
being moved from Minister of Home Affairs/Security to Minister
of Communications was viewed as a demotion and lack of
confidence by the Prime Minister in Thabane. Our conversation
is part of our ongoing individual discussions with party leaders
as well as our efforts with the rest of the diplomatic missions
to reinforce the message of free, fair, transparent and peaceful
elections. During the January 17 Martin Luther King, Jr.
commemoration ceremony hosted by the Embassy (septel),Thabane
not only attended, but made a statement that he agreed with all
of the points made by the Ambassador in her remarks concerning
non-violence, democracy and justice. No matter where he
finishes (1, 2 or 3),we do not doubt that Thabane will come out
of this election in some position whether his party wins or not;
he has been a part of every government during Lesotho's 40 years
of independence and an activist well before. End Summary.

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Thabane Denies Encouraging Violence
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2. (C) In a private conversation with Ambassador Perry, Thabane
told me that he was very pleased to have the opportunity to meet
with me at the Chancery to share his perspective on the February
17 elections. We, in turn, said to him that this, the second
major election Lesotho has had since 1998, must be a peaceful
one. We also expressed our deep concern about the rumors
throughout Lesotho about the young people, many of whom have
been attracted to his party, the All Basotho Convention (ABC),
who have fomented or are planning to foment violent activities
should they suspect any discrepancies in the balloting or in the
final tallies. Thabane was quite concerned that these
statements had reached us and said, in fact, that there had been
one young man who was a member of his youth league who had
expressed the fact that he would take negative action should
there be a question about the elections. However, Thabane
stated that he had taken this individual aside and told him
while he condoned free expression of opinions, the young man
must not take any action that would have a negative impact on
the peaceful process of the elections. He went on to say that
he had delivered this message to all members of the ABC, not
just the youth. At the same time, he said they would review the
election outcome, have open discussions about them if there are
any questions and would only resort to direct action, namely
demonstrations, if there are any questions either about the
process or the outcome.

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Concern About the IEC
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3. (C) In that regard, Thabane also said that he had not
received, in his constituency, the correct voter list from the
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). The Ambassador
explained that the international community was very involved in
providing technical assistance to the IEC to help ensure that
the list would be correct and distributed. We also shared with
him the fact that an expert from the United Kingdom had flown in
immediately following a call from the IEC Chairman to go through
all of the computer systems and had in fact retrieved the hard
drive with the correct voter list. Thabane expressed surprise
at this because his party had not been privy to this
information, and in fact, he noted members of the opposition had
questioned why the international community was not involved. I
took the opportunity to lay out for him the specifics of what
the United States was doing through funding the National
Democratic Institute (NDI) in terms of capacity building,
training and media access during the pre-election period and
what it would be doing in terms of assisting the IEC in
validation of the outcome. I also apprised him that all of the
diplomatic corps not only had individual meetings, but group

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meetings with the IEC. The United States, Ireland and UNDP,
between themselves, have specifically identified areas of
support, e.g. the Irish are paying for the systems consultant
and the UNDP is providing technical equipment and transportation
to the IEC as well as conflict resolution training. Thabane
promised to explain to the members of his party the involvement
that has actually been going on now for approximately three
months among the U.S, the Embassy of Ireland as well as the
other members of the donor community. He complained that the
IEC had not apprised them of the support they had been
receiving. He seemed reassured by the fact that we are deeply
involved, not only with the IEC, but with the rest of the
international community.

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Revelations about Defection from the LCD
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4. (C) The Ambassador elaborated on this point by indicating
that the donor community had been having its own meetings as in
2005 during the local elections, would be holding round tables
as well as holding individual meetings with all donors and
stakeholders. These meetings would complement the ongoing
dialogue we have with the IEC. The Ambassador then asked
Thabane what specifically had precipitated his formation of the
ABC and we believe we began to obtain clear insight into why he
felt compelled at this time. Mainly, Thabane who had been Prime
Minister Mosisili's Minister for Home Affairs and Security was
moved over a year ago to the position of Minister of
Communications. He said that he considered this move a demotion
in light of the fact that he had been the person who had served
as the interlocutor with the Southern African Development
Commission (SADC) during the 1998 civil unrest in Lesotho and
that his area of expertise was in fact law enforcement and
security. He asserted that the police would be very active
throughout the elections and would see to it that there would be
no violence. (Comment: Thabane's position on the effectiveness
of the police is diametrically opposede to that of the Deputy
Prime Minister (DPM) who replaced him as the Minister of Home
Affairs and Security. The Ambassador has been told repeatedly
by the DPM in the presence of other major donors, as well as
individually, that the police force is ineffective and that the
Government of Lesotho (GOL) has had to turn to us and others,
most recently to assist the police in investigating the murder
of a Clinton Foundation volunteer worker. The Minister of
Foreign Affairs on January 10 claimed to us that Thabane and the
Police Commissioner, a woman, were in fact involved in an
adulterous affair. The Foreign Minister has been saying since
his own assassination attempt in 2006, that the police
department has worked in tandem with Thabane and not with the
GOL. End Comment.) While not divulging the contents of her
conversations with the DPM and FOMIN, the Ambassador did express
to Thabane that there were those who did not view the police as
effective as he did and, in fact, as Thabane was aware, the
government had turned over the years to Scotland Yard and the
U.S. for assistance in solving murders which were never
resolved, including political murders, which still remain open
and had never been resolved by the police. Thus, though there
was a basis for the lack of confidence, expressed Thabane,
Thabane continued to hold to his opinion of the capability of
the police, but admitted they needed further training. The
Ambassador reminded Thabane that the Embassy has regularly sent
law enforcement officers to Botswana through ILEA and has over
the years sent the Police Commissioner to international police
conferences in the United States and that the Police
Commissioner has also benefited from U.S. assistance, support
and training. Thabane said he was well aware of that since he
had served in all of the governments.

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What are ABC's Goals?
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5. (C) Questioned about the ABC's specific goals, Thabane
responded that he had formed the party because he felt also that
service delivery by the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy
(LCD) had neglected to provide for citizens across the country.
For this reason, Thabane had decided to run his campaign
primarily from the mountainous rural areas where people are
living in desperate poverty. He elaborated that while ruling
party leaders will campaign concentrating only on their
constituencies, he was concentrating on the entire country and
has covered thousands of miles in rural villages across Lesotho
to determine the conditions of the people and to "identify their
specific needs." He said that if elected, he would emphasize
the small scale economic and agricultural development in these
areas that remain lacking in services. He talked about the fact
that Lesotho lacked the necessary agricultural service that
reached out to the mountain people. Joined by the DCM, the
Ambassador brought to Thabane's attention the 2006 international

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study indicating that Lesotho would never be self-sufficient in
food due to the long standing erosion of the land, although it
may be able to identify niche crops, e.g. endives, that may be
sold throughout the country and in the region, but would not
sustain major agriculture crops. We reminded Thabane that water
still remained its main resource and that if the GOL were able
to successfully conclude a Millennium Challenge Corporation
(MCC) Compact we would be able to help address the water problem
through strengthening the existing authorities, repairing pipes
and other water systems. Likewise, we would be able to renovate
nearly 100 clinics in the very rural areas of which he was
speaking. Thabane said he was aware of the key areas of the
GOL's MIllennium Challenge Account proposal and fully supported
them. We took the opportunity to remind Thabane that these
programs, as well as the projects of other donors, could only go
forward in a climate of stability and opportunity. He said he
understood that completely and gave us his assurances that even
should the government change, the technical work being done by
core teams on the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) would
continue apace. I told him that I could not emphasize enough
how critical that would be to our bilateral relationship and to
our ability to support Lesotho's growth. In that regard, I
reminded him that the President had extended the Africa Growth
Opportunity Act (AGOA) until 2012, which should give Lesotho
time to continue to work on economic diversification. Thabane
applauded the work of AGOA and particularly the fact that it has
impacted the Basotho population by employing up to 50,000
workers - a significant contribution with the unemployment rate
reaching 50 percent. At this point, he thought many young
people are flocking to ABC because of the lack of employment
opportunities. As a candidate, his platform would pursue
employment and business opportunities for the many unemployed
young people. However, he did not give specific examples of how
this would be done.


6. (C) In concluding our discussion, the Ambassador reminded
Thabane that dialogue between ourselves and other diplomatic
members and various stakeholders would continue. We also
promised to address with the government which we have all done,
access to government media as well as providing meetings for all
parties. Thabane thanked us for our very active role in
supporting Lesotho during the 2002 national elections, the 2005
local elections and the upcoming 2007 elections. He said that
the ABC would be happy to participate in any roundtable
discussions we and the donor community may organize and that we
should be convinced that he is totally committed to a
non-violent campaign, elections and post electoral period. He
understood fully that any sense of instability would be
detrimental to Lesotho's future, undermining progress that has
been made since 2002. On that note, we concluded our discussion
and he promised to explain to party members the specifics of
international involvement, including that of the U.S., and
explain even further the need for tranquility throughout the
process.

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Comment
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7. (C) Thabane's candidacy has seemed to light a fire under
young people across the country. We see this as a reflection of
the socio-economic imbalances that exist within Lesotho. For
example, the GOL contract with Imperial Fleet Services (reftel)
and the resulting outcry has only underscored the huge gap
between the haves and have nots. We agree with Thabane, having
visited many of the rural areas ourselves, that their needs are
not being met. At the same time, we questioned specifically how
the ABC would correct this since there has not been a specific
methodology outlined by that party addressing the economic,
educational and health problems that plague all Basotho, but
especially those in the remote mountain areas. We find
encouraging Thabane's prompt understanding of the fact that
violence would lead to significant loss of donor support and
that regarding the 85 to 100 PCVs that Lesotho relies on to
carry out their educational, health and community development
programs, as well as the Embassy programs such as the
Ambassador's Special Projects (SSH, DHRF, etc) programs, could
not operate in a state of conflict between the various elements
and people within Lesotho.


8. (C) We believe that Thabane's explanation of his discontent
with the LCD reflects the continuing intra-cultural battle that
plague Lesotho even with a population of just under 2 million
people of essentially one ethnic group. These internal
struggles hamper Lesotho's overall development and because the
population is so small, many of the candidates and their
adherents not only have previous political ties, but are also
blood relatives. Thus, as an expatriate who has lived here for
many years said to me once, you are dealing with the mentality
of a "mountain people who are not forgiving." In this 2007

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election, through the entire training and capacity building that
we and others are supporting, we hope to help Lesotho
institutionalize the process necessary for a true democracy, one
that will be, as I stated to the November audience of donors and
stakeholders, enforced by ballots, not bullets. End Comment.
PERRY