Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MANAMA44
2007-01-17 13:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:
CROWN PRINCE BRIEFS CNO PANEL ON REGIONAL,
how-toVZCZCXRO0137 OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK DE RUEHMK #0044/01 0171314 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 171314Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6307 INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY RUENAAA/CNO WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000044
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR KDEM BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE BRIEFS CNO PANEL ON REGIONAL,
DOMESTIC ISSUES
REF: MANAMA 0024
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
-------
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000044
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR KDEM BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE BRIEFS CNO PANEL ON REGIONAL,
DOMESTIC ISSUES
REF: MANAMA 0024
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Crown Prince Shaikh Salman told CNO Executive Panel
co-chairs Zakheim and Skinner January 9 that the two issues
of greatest concern in the region are Iran and perceived
limitations on the U.S.'s ability to project power. With
changes in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran had been freed of its
natural constraints and was now trying to restore its
traditional hegemonic role in the region. He urged a policy
of deterrence of Iran. The CP recommended that the U.S. draw
down the number of its troops in Iraq and consolidate them on
bases outside of major population centers. He recommended
that the U.S. push Israel and the Palestinians to talk. On
Syria, he said there should be an effort to break Syria away
from Iran. He told the visitors that Bahrain was stable but
warned there could be spillover effects from conflicts in
Iraq and Lebanon. On democracy, the CP said countries need
both the building blocks of democracy as well as elections to
succeed. End Summary.
--------------
Rebalancing the Equation
--------------
2. (C) CNO Executive Panel co-chairs Dr. Dov Zakheim and Dr.
Kiron Skinner met January 9 with Crown Prince Shaikh Salman
bin Hamad Al Khalifa for a discussion of regional and
Bahraini domestic issues. Dr. Zakheim described the mission
of the CNO Executive Panel, saying it was a forum for
considering issues in a more complete way on behalf of the
Chief of Naval Operations. Shaikh Salman thanked the U.S.
for providing security in the Gulf region, which had allowed
Bahrain and other countries to develop. "We wouldn't have
this standard of living without the United States," he said.
Now is a difficult time, but friends stand by friends.
Bahrain supports the United States and the presence of the
Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, he asserted.
3. (C) Dr. Zakheim asked the CP his views of the region.
Shaikh Salman said the two issues of greatest concern are
Iran, and perceived limitations on the U.S.'s ability to
project power in the region. He said he had spoken several
times with U.S. policymakers about the damage Iraq is doing
to U.S. interests, and developments in the Israel-Palestinian
situation had hurt moderates and reformers. The U.S. and its
friends needed to "rebalance the equation."
--------------
Iran Freed of Natural Constraints
--------------
4. (C) Shaikh Salman said that with the changes in Iraq and
Afghanistan, Iran had been freed of its natural constraints.
Iran was now building influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain,
and Central Asia, trying to restore its traditional hegemonic
role in the region. The U.S., he said, should reduce its
forces in Iraq so it has the resources to confront Iran.
Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad had said recently that Iran
could close the Strait of Hormuz and warned that regional
countries hosting U.S. forces could be targeted. The CP
said, "We need a credible deterrent to Iran, and the U.S.
must commit to a proper deterrence." He recommended that the
U.S. talk to Iran while joining diplomatic forces with
Russia, the EU, India, and China. In this way, Iran might
feel that it had become a member of the community of nations.
However, if Iran remained obstinate, the other countries
would see this and the U.S. position would gain support.
5. (C) Regarding Iraq, the Crown Prince said (as he has done
many times before) that the U.S. should reduce its forces and
pull-back from the front lines. For force protection
reasons, remaining U.S. troops should be consolidated into
major bases outside of population centers, not deployed
across the country. The U.S. should "get out of a sectarian
conflict" in Iraq, he said.
--------------
Getting Israelis, Palestinians to the Table
--------------
6. (C) Shaikh Salman said the U.S. should try to get the
Israelis and Palestinians to talk to one another. "You
MANAMA 00000044 002 OF 003
should work with the Israelis, and we'll work with the
Palestinians." Some momentum could develop with Saudi and
Egyptian involvement. In response to Dr. Zakheim's question
about Bahrain's ties with Israel, the CP said that Foreign
Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa had met with
Israeli Foreign Minister Livni in New York at the time of the
opening of the UN General Assembly. He said that Livni had
liked Bahrain's presentation to the UN Security Council on
the Arab peace initiative, and she had issued her own
statement that Israel was ready to consider the Arab
initiative. Dr. Zakheim said he thought the Israelis had
missed opportunities for progress when Saudi King Abdullah
had issued a statement accepting Israel, and when Mahmoud
Abbas was elected president.
7. (C) The Crown Prince stated that the situation in the
Palestinian Territories was proof that Islamic style
governments will cooperate, whether Sunni or Shia. Hamas, a
Sunni Islamist group, was aligned with Shia Iran. The common
interests of theologically-based movements supersede
sectarian divisions in a trans-national context. When they
compete for political power in a confined space, however, as
in Iraq, they conflict, he said.
--------------
Break Syria Away from Iran
--------------
8. (C) Turning to Syria, the Crown Prince said there should
be efforts to break Syria away from Iran. Once there was
verifiable proof of Syria severing its ties with Iran,
countries could provide assistance to Syria. If it is not
possible to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran, there
should be a policy of deterrence. He said he supported
regime change in Iran, but not in Syria. If Asad goes, a new
regime would be worse.
9. (C) As a result of Iran's nuclear program, the CP said he
fears an arms race in the region. He doubted the GCC as a
group would pursue a joint civilian nuclear program, but
Saudi Arabia and the UAE might develop their own programs.
But there would be less pressure to go down this path if Iran
was not promoting its program.
--------------
Bahrain on Even Keel, For Now
--------------
10. (C) In response to Dr. Skinner's question about
conditions in Bahrain, the CP said that there was stability
but warned there could be spillover effects from conflicts in
Iraq and Lebanon. Bahrain is keeping things on an even keel;
it is the only place with significant Sunni and Shia
populations without conflict, he said. He cautioned that the
United States should not be seen as supporting one side in
Iraq over another. Such a perception could harm U.S.
standing in the region.
11. (C) Asked about democracy in Bahrain, Shaikh Salman said
that Bahrain was making progress although it had also made
some mistakes. He was thankful that the King and other
political actors in Bahrain were reforming the system in a
manner that avoided violence. He said he had told Secretary
Rice previously that countries need both the building blocks
of democracy as well as elections to succeed. The United
States, he pointed out, had established systems of law,
commerce, land ownership, and economy before it gained
political independence. Self-government was the last thing
to happen. It was important for the rule of law and a free
economy to be established before holding elections. He
asserted that the argument that a lack of democracy was
causing extremism was too narrow and pointed out that the
bombers in the UK were living in an open society. The lack
of justice was a more relevant factor. "A political system
that exacerbates a problem (in society) is worse than a
less-good system that can evolve and improve over time," he
stated.
--------------
An Islamic Super-State
--------------
12. (C) The Crown Prince said there were forces in the
Middle East that held as their ultimate goal the creation of
an Islamic super-state. The concept of a regional
super-state had been tried before, with the pan-Arabism of
Nasser. Now Islamists were using similar tactics, but they
just put the word "God" in front of their economic and
political programs. This trend would not succeed because
MANAMA 00000044 003 OF 003
there were too many differences between states. But it is
enough to drive a sense of identity between Arabs and
Muslims. Weak nation-states like Lebanon and Iraq were
threatened, whereas countries like Egypt and Jordan were not.
The CP said he was adamant that "maps not be changed."
Doing so would open a Pandora's box.
********************************************* ********
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/
********************************************* ********
MONROE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR KDEM BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE BRIEFS CNO PANEL ON REGIONAL,
DOMESTIC ISSUES
REF: MANAMA 0024
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (C) Crown Prince Shaikh Salman told CNO Executive Panel
co-chairs Zakheim and Skinner January 9 that the two issues
of greatest concern in the region are Iran and perceived
limitations on the U.S.'s ability to project power. With
changes in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran had been freed of its
natural constraints and was now trying to restore its
traditional hegemonic role in the region. He urged a policy
of deterrence of Iran. The CP recommended that the U.S. draw
down the number of its troops in Iraq and consolidate them on
bases outside of major population centers. He recommended
that the U.S. push Israel and the Palestinians to talk. On
Syria, he said there should be an effort to break Syria away
from Iran. He told the visitors that Bahrain was stable but
warned there could be spillover effects from conflicts in
Iraq and Lebanon. On democracy, the CP said countries need
both the building blocks of democracy as well as elections to
succeed. End Summary.
--------------
Rebalancing the Equation
--------------
2. (C) CNO Executive Panel co-chairs Dr. Dov Zakheim and Dr.
Kiron Skinner met January 9 with Crown Prince Shaikh Salman
bin Hamad Al Khalifa for a discussion of regional and
Bahraini domestic issues. Dr. Zakheim described the mission
of the CNO Executive Panel, saying it was a forum for
considering issues in a more complete way on behalf of the
Chief of Naval Operations. Shaikh Salman thanked the U.S.
for providing security in the Gulf region, which had allowed
Bahrain and other countries to develop. "We wouldn't have
this standard of living without the United States," he said.
Now is a difficult time, but friends stand by friends.
Bahrain supports the United States and the presence of the
Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, he asserted.
3. (C) Dr. Zakheim asked the CP his views of the region.
Shaikh Salman said the two issues of greatest concern are
Iran, and perceived limitations on the U.S.'s ability to
project power in the region. He said he had spoken several
times with U.S. policymakers about the damage Iraq is doing
to U.S. interests, and developments in the Israel-Palestinian
situation had hurt moderates and reformers. The U.S. and its
friends needed to "rebalance the equation."
--------------
Iran Freed of Natural Constraints
--------------
4. (C) Shaikh Salman said that with the changes in Iraq and
Afghanistan, Iran had been freed of its natural constraints.
Iran was now building influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain,
and Central Asia, trying to restore its traditional hegemonic
role in the region. The U.S., he said, should reduce its
forces in Iraq so it has the resources to confront Iran.
Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad had said recently that Iran
could close the Strait of Hormuz and warned that regional
countries hosting U.S. forces could be targeted. The CP
said, "We need a credible deterrent to Iran, and the U.S.
must commit to a proper deterrence." He recommended that the
U.S. talk to Iran while joining diplomatic forces with
Russia, the EU, India, and China. In this way, Iran might
feel that it had become a member of the community of nations.
However, if Iran remained obstinate, the other countries
would see this and the U.S. position would gain support.
5. (C) Regarding Iraq, the Crown Prince said (as he has done
many times before) that the U.S. should reduce its forces and
pull-back from the front lines. For force protection
reasons, remaining U.S. troops should be consolidated into
major bases outside of population centers, not deployed
across the country. The U.S. should "get out of a sectarian
conflict" in Iraq, he said.
--------------
Getting Israelis, Palestinians to the Table
--------------
6. (C) Shaikh Salman said the U.S. should try to get the
Israelis and Palestinians to talk to one another. "You
MANAMA 00000044 002 OF 003
should work with the Israelis, and we'll work with the
Palestinians." Some momentum could develop with Saudi and
Egyptian involvement. In response to Dr. Zakheim's question
about Bahrain's ties with Israel, the CP said that Foreign
Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa had met with
Israeli Foreign Minister Livni in New York at the time of the
opening of the UN General Assembly. He said that Livni had
liked Bahrain's presentation to the UN Security Council on
the Arab peace initiative, and she had issued her own
statement that Israel was ready to consider the Arab
initiative. Dr. Zakheim said he thought the Israelis had
missed opportunities for progress when Saudi King Abdullah
had issued a statement accepting Israel, and when Mahmoud
Abbas was elected president.
7. (C) The Crown Prince stated that the situation in the
Palestinian Territories was proof that Islamic style
governments will cooperate, whether Sunni or Shia. Hamas, a
Sunni Islamist group, was aligned with Shia Iran. The common
interests of theologically-based movements supersede
sectarian divisions in a trans-national context. When they
compete for political power in a confined space, however, as
in Iraq, they conflict, he said.
--------------
Break Syria Away from Iran
--------------
8. (C) Turning to Syria, the Crown Prince said there should
be efforts to break Syria away from Iran. Once there was
verifiable proof of Syria severing its ties with Iran,
countries could provide assistance to Syria. If it is not
possible to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran, there
should be a policy of deterrence. He said he supported
regime change in Iran, but not in Syria. If Asad goes, a new
regime would be worse.
9. (C) As a result of Iran's nuclear program, the CP said he
fears an arms race in the region. He doubted the GCC as a
group would pursue a joint civilian nuclear program, but
Saudi Arabia and the UAE might develop their own programs.
But there would be less pressure to go down this path if Iran
was not promoting its program.
--------------
Bahrain on Even Keel, For Now
--------------
10. (C) In response to Dr. Skinner's question about
conditions in Bahrain, the CP said that there was stability
but warned there could be spillover effects from conflicts in
Iraq and Lebanon. Bahrain is keeping things on an even keel;
it is the only place with significant Sunni and Shia
populations without conflict, he said. He cautioned that the
United States should not be seen as supporting one side in
Iraq over another. Such a perception could harm U.S.
standing in the region.
11. (C) Asked about democracy in Bahrain, Shaikh Salman said
that Bahrain was making progress although it had also made
some mistakes. He was thankful that the King and other
political actors in Bahrain were reforming the system in a
manner that avoided violence. He said he had told Secretary
Rice previously that countries need both the building blocks
of democracy as well as elections to succeed. The United
States, he pointed out, had established systems of law,
commerce, land ownership, and economy before it gained
political independence. Self-government was the last thing
to happen. It was important for the rule of law and a free
economy to be established before holding elections. He
asserted that the argument that a lack of democracy was
causing extremism was too narrow and pointed out that the
bombers in the UK were living in an open society. The lack
of justice was a more relevant factor. "A political system
that exacerbates a problem (in society) is worse than a
less-good system that can evolve and improve over time," he
stated.
--------------
An Islamic Super-State
--------------
12. (C) The Crown Prince said there were forces in the
Middle East that held as their ultimate goal the creation of
an Islamic super-state. The concept of a regional
super-state had been tried before, with the pan-Arabism of
Nasser. Now Islamists were using similar tactics, but they
just put the word "God" in front of their economic and
political programs. This trend would not succeed because
MANAMA 00000044 003 OF 003
there were too many differences between states. But it is
enough to drive a sense of identity between Arabs and
Muslims. Weak nation-states like Lebanon and Iraq were
threatened, whereas countries like Egypt and Jordan were not.
The CP said he was adamant that "maps not be changed."
Doing so would open a Pandora's box.
********************************************* ********
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/
********************************************* ********
MONROE