SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 000257

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA OFFICIALS BILAT
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND,
ADMIRAL FALLON'S MARCH 22-23 AND 27-28 VISITS TO BAHRAIN

REF: STATE 33984

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Admiral Fallon, we warmly welcome your March 22-23
and 27-28 visits to Bahrain. The fifty-year U.S. Navy
presence in Bahrain is the centerpiece of the U.S.-Bahrain
bilateral relationship. Bahrain considers the Navy to be its
defense against external threats, starting with Iran, and has
recently taken important steps to enhance bilateral relations
further. Bahrain generally supports our Iraq policy but
believes we should withdraw from major population centers,
leaving only a rapid-reaction force in country. The GOB is
mistrustful of the Iraqi government and wants to see PM
Maliki make greater movement toward reconciliation with
Iraq's Sunnis and a willingness to work more closely with its
Arab neighbors. Bahrain is an enthusiastic participant in
the interagency Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD) initiative. At
the last meeting, on March 8 in Washington, Crown Prince
Salman pushed hard to get Patriot missiles for Bahrain. The
CP met with the Vice President, Secretary Gates, Deputy
Secretary England, and others during his visit.

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Objectives
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2. (C) What we want from the visit:

-- Continued cooperation on regional maritime operations,
including in Coalition Task Forces (CTF) 150 and 152 in and
around the Gulf.

-- Close coordination on Iran policy.

-- Support for U.S. policy in Iraq and a commitment for
pro-active Bahraini engagement with Iraq's leadership, at a
minimum at the upcoming Arab League Summit and Iraq Neighbors
Ministerial meeting.

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Issues of Interest to Bahrain
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3. (C) The Bahrainis will want to hear from you on:

-- A reaffirmation of the Navy's long-term commitment to
Bahrain and U.S. interest in protecting Bahrain.

-- Recognition of Bahrain's public and private steps to align
with and support the United States, including recent
senior-level visits to Washington, participating in the
Proliferation Security Initiative, joining the Coalition Task
Forces and deploying a special forces contingent to
Afghanistan.

-- Your thoughts on the way forward in Iraq, with particular
emphasis on the Iraqi government's responsibilities and ways
the GCC can engage and assist.

-- Strategies to contain Iran while avoiding a military
confrontation.

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Key Issues to Raise
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4. (C) We suggest you raise the following points:

-- Recognize the long history of mil-mil cooperation with
Bahrain, most notably through hosting NAVCENT. Reaffirm the
commitment of the U.S. Navy in Bahrain.

-- Appreciate the positive steps the government has taken on
counter-terrorism since the departure of Navy dependents in
2004 and caution on the need to remain vigilant.

-- Praise Bahrain's support for OEF, OIF, and U.S. policy on
Iraq and Iran. Commend Bahrain for sending its Special
Forces contingent to Afghanistan in support of OEF, hosting
and participating in Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)
exercise Leading Edge in October 2006, and formally joining
the regional coalition naval task forces.

-- Solicit views on the way forward on Iran and Iraq.

-- Pledge to continue the close coordination between our two
countries on Iran.


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Issues Background Briefs
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Military Relations
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5. (SBU) The U.S. Navy has worked closely with Bahrain for
more than 50 years. When the U.S. Fifth Fleet was
re-commissioned in 1995, Bahrain took the then-controversial
step of being the first Gulf state to provide host government
support for regionally "home-ported" U.S. Navy forces.
Bahrain remains the only country in the region that hosts a
permanent component command headquarters.


6. (C) Bahrain's relatively stable and secure political
environment allows deployed U.S. Navy ships to stop,
replenish supplies, and provide crews much needed onshore
rest and recreation opportunities. Bahrain is currently one
of the U.S. Navy's busiest overseas ports. In direct support
of OEF and OIF, Bahrain in 2003 deployed 1,500 troops, a tank
battalion task force, and its frigate the RNBS Sabha to
defend Kuwait. Bahrain also flew combat air patrols over
Kuwait and Bahrain and continues to keep F-16s on 24-7 strip
alert. A special operations unit embedded in a UAE
contingent deployed to Afghanistan in 2005. Bahrain assigned
three shore-based naval officers to work in the command post
for maritime task force CTF-150, which covers the Strait of
Hormuz to the Sea of Aden. For CTF-152, which covers central
Gulf waters, Bahrain has provided one frigate and two
corvettes. Bahrain was the first GCC country to participate
in the CTFs.


7. (C) With limited petroleum resources, Bahrain faces
greater budget constraints than its large Gulf neighbors and
does not have the financial ability to fund military
equipment sustainment and upgrades needed to maintain
interoperability with the U.S. and to purchase equipment to
defend the country. We have had active FMF and IMET programs
in Bahrain for several years but the FMF program in
particular has declined precipitously in recent years, from
$90 million in 2003, to a budgeted $15 million for FY 2007,
to a projected $4 million for FY 2008. We are working
closely with the Bahrainis on the CENTCOM Bilateral Air
Defense Initiative and an upgrade for their early warning and
air defense radar systems, a program that has been promoted
in the Gulf Security Dialogue. Future programs include the
sale of nine Blackhawk helicopters to the Bahraini Air Force
($200 million) and six Bell helicopters to the Ministry of
Interior (approximately $70 million). A proposal to provide
two MK-V Fast Patrol Boats to the Bahraini Navy through
counter-terrorism (1206) funding is awaiting signature by the
Secretaries of State and Defense. Six Boston Whalers that

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were originally programmed for Thailand will be diverted to
Bahrain. This transfer has been approved by the Departments
of State and Defense and is pending congressional approval.

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Gulf Security Dialogue
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8. (S) Crown Prince Salman led the Bahraini delegation to a
March 8 session of the interagency Gulf Security Dialogue in
Washington (reftel). Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte
opened the meeting and Acting Assistant Secretary of State
for Political Military Affairs Mull and Acting Assistant
Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Long

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headed the U.S. delegation. The two sides discussed Iran,
Defense Cooperation, Counter-Terrorism,
Counter-Proliferation, and Iraq. During the meeting, the
Crown Prince said that air defense is the major hole in
Bahrain's defenses and he requested USG consideration for
providing Patriot missiles. Acting A/S Long explained that
the USG supply of Patriots does not meet current demand, but
she undertook to explore creative solutions.

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Next Steps on Iraq
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9. (C) The GOB publicly supports U.S. operations in Iraq,
but as King Hamad and Crown Prince Salman have said several
times, it believes Iraqi forces should be moving to the front
lines in place of coalition forces. This would force Iraqis
to take responsibility for their own security and put the GOI
into the position of requesting assistance from its Arab
neighbors, which the Bahrainis feel it has not yet done in a
meaningful way. The Crown Prince suggested that PM Maliki
visit the GCC countries to establish better ties. Bahrain is

MANAMA 00000257 003 OF 004


mistrustful of the Iraqi government and it would like to see
Maliki make greater moves to reconcile with Iraq's Sunnis.
Bahrain participated in the recent sub-ministerial Iraq
Neighbors meeting in Baghdad and will participate in the
upcoming Iraq Neighbors Ministerial. The GOB's greatest
concerns related to Iraq are excessive Iranian influence over
the government of Iraq, and that sectarian violence could
spill over into Bahrain, which has a Shia-majority population
ruled by a Sunni-controlled government. GOB officials will
support long-term measures to reduce sectarian violence while
recognizing that the near-term situation in Iraq is extremely
difficult.

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Dealing With Iran
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10. (C) The Bahraini leadership is greatly concerned about
the threat posed by Iran and increased tensions between Iran
and the international community. Crown Prince Salman has
suggested several times that the U.S. and GCC countries hold
a significant military exercise in the Gulf, which would send
a strong signal to Iran. Bahrain hosted and participated in
PSI exercise Leading Edge in October, and the
boarding/interrogation portion took place just outside its
territorial waters. NAVCENT personnel were impressed with
the Bahraini Navy's professionalism and aggressiveness during
the exercise.


11. (C) The Bahraini leadership is united in its suspicion
of Iranian intentions regarding Bahrain and often sees an
Iranian hand in incidents involving Bahrain's Shia community,
which comprises some two-thirds of the country's citizens.
They are convinced Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons and
assert its influence around the region. Bahrain supports UN
Security Council resolutions applying sanctions on Iran. At
the GSD meeting, the CP suggested launching multiparty
negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue, modeled on the
Six Party Talks with North Korea. He thought it would be
useful for a regional power, such as Saudi Arabia, to join
the major world powers in negotiating with Iran.


12. (C) At the same time, Bahrain faces the reality that it
must live with its large neighbor across the Gulf. Bahrain
maintains "correct" but not warm diplomatic relations with
Iran, with Bahraini leaders meeting with Iranian officials
when they visit and occasional Bahraini visits to Tehran.
Bahraini officials repeatedly assert their strong view that
the international community should engage in diplomacy to
deal with Iran, and not resort to a military solution. They
recognize, however, that a robust military posture can
facilitate diplomacy.

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Return of U.S. Dependents
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13. (C) Bahraini officials often reiterate their request
that the U.S. Navy permit dependents to return to Bahrain.
Crown Prince Salman, who is a graduate of the DOD Bahrain
School and whose children now attend the school, is a
particularly strong advocate for the everyday,
people-to-people contact that is fostered by the presence of
dependents. Bahraini officials may urge your support in
reconsidering the Navy's 2004 decision removing dependents
from Bahrain.

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Elections
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14. (C) Bahrain in November/December 2006 conducted its
second set of parliamentary and municipal elections since the
adoption of the 2002 constitution. Some 70 percent of
registered voters and all political societies participated in
the elections, with oppositionists winning 18 of 40 seats in
the elected lower house Council of Representatives.
Thirty-two seats are held by Islamists (Sunni and Shia) and
membership is marked by a stark Sunni-Shia divide. One
woman, Lateefa Al Qaoud, ran unopposed and is Bahrain's first
female elected member of parliament. Local election monitors
reported that although there were allegations of the
government rigging election outcomes, they uncovered no
tangible evidence of such activity. However, they said that
Bahrain's electoral constituencies were not drawn in
accordance with the principle of "one man, one vote,"
resulting in a parliamentary majority of 23 Sunnis
representing a group estimated to comprise one-third of the
population. The elections are, however, seen as a major step
forward in the King's democratic reform program.

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