AL WIFAQ LEADER OUTLINES CONCERNS ABOUT OVERCOMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000225

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL BA POL
SUBJECT: AL WIFAQ LEADER OUTLINES CONCERNS ABOUT OVERCOMING
POLITICAL CHALLENGES


Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

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Summary
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1. (C) Secretary General of Shia political society Al Wifaq
and MP Shaikh Ali Salman told the Ambassador March 5 that
there was "nothing encouraging" about the current
parliamentary session, which opened in mid-December 2006. He
complained that although Shias represent 75 percent of the
electorate, they hold only 17 of 40 seats in the Council of
Representatives. He identified redrawing electoral
constituencies, along with constitutional reform and
regularizing naturalization, as Al Wifaq's top political
priorities. In the economic field, Al Wifaq is pursuing a
policy of non-discrimination in government services,
especially employment. In the long term, Salman said the
King should remain in his position but the prime minister
should be elected by the people. He acknowledged the U.S.
priority in promoting democracy, but said it could push
harder in Bahrain. The hardline Haq Movement represents a
challenge to Al Wifaq, and Salman wants to achieve progress
in parliament to justify Al Wifaq's decision to enter the
political system. End Summary.

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Constituencies, Constitution, Top Political Priorities
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2. (C) Leading Shia political society Al Wifaq Secretary
General and member of parliament Shaikh Ali Salman, in a
March 5 meeting, told the Ambassador "there was nothing
encouraging" so far in the parliamentary session that opened
in mid-December 2006, following the first elections in four
years. He admitted that there was some positive interaction
between the various political blocs, but he expected an
"unfavorable atmosphere" to take hold. Although Shias
comprise 75 percent of the electorate (his estimate),they
won only 17 of 40 seats in the elected lower house Council of
Representatives (COR). He identified reform of the electoral
constituencies as one of Al Wifaq's major political
objectives. Al Wifaq is not demanding the constituencies be
drawn to mirror the percentage of the Shia population in
society, but, in his view, Shias should be able to win at
least 50 percent of the seats. Although Al Wifaq won 17 or
the 18 races it contested, it would not have had a chance in
any of the other districts because of their sectarian
composition, he said.


3. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about Al
Wifaq's political priorities, Salman emphasized the
importance of achieving consensus on the way ahead to amend
the constitution. Al Wifaq has many concerns about the 2002
constitution, but it is not demanding that changes be made
right away. Rather, it wants to work with the government to
map out the path to future changes. He said he had tried to
open the subject with Minister of the Royal Court Shaikh
Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa (Comment: Who plays a highly
influential role in the political maneuverings of the King's
Court),but he would not engage.

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Naturalization, Discrimination Feed Unemployment
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4. (C) Also prominent among Al Wifaq's priorities, Salman
said, is the issue of naturalization. There were widespread
allegations during summer and fall 2006 that the government
was granting citizenship to hundreds or thousands of foreign
workers whose loyalties lie with the government. Salman
noted that the issue was discussed in Salah Al Bandar's
(infamous) report, which alleged a broad conspiracy run by a
senior member of the Royal Family to support regime-friendly
candidates in the elections. In Shaikh Ali's view, Al
Bandar's discussion of naturalization gives credibility to
those who believe the government is trying to alter the
long-term demographics of the country - a prospect he called
"frightening."


5. (C) Al Wifaq is pursuing a policy of non-discrimination
in government services, Salman continued. Shias face
discrimination in employment, education, and promotions. He
said he had asked the Interior Minister to tell parliament
how many Sunnis and Shias his ministry employs. The Minister
claimed he was unable to answer because he did not know an
employee's sectarian affiliation. Salman said that when
Shias had the same opportunities as Sunnis for employment in
government ministries, unemployment would no longer be a

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political issue.


6. (C) Recalling a recent discussion with the Labor
Minister, the Ambassador said that the government was taking
measures to address unemployment. Salman agreed, saying Al
Wifaq was working with the Crown Prince and Labor Minister on
labor reform, but he complained that the government was not
doing enough. The main issue is employment in the Ministries
of Interior and Defense, where naturalized citizens and other
expatriates get jobs but Shia Bahrainis do not. The
government is steering Shia job seekers toward the private
sector, but wages and job security are both lower there
compared with government jobs. He recognized that the
private sector should be the engine of job growth, but
thought the government should provide assistance to low
earners.

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Building Confidence Through Common Interests
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7. (C) The Ambassador suggested that Al Wifaq find a way to
build Sunni confidence that their rights, as a minority,
would be protected. Similarly, Sunnis have to convince Shias
that they should be part of the system. Salman replied that
both Bahrain's Sunnis and Shias should have rights because
"they live here and belong here." But the idea of sharing is
important. Al Wifaq, he said, will try to build trust. In
the COR, "I want to have a chance to convince the other
deputies" of Al Wifaq's point of view. Working together in
areas where the Royal Court does not have strong interests
could be fruitful. However, he said, "if the government
calls the 22 loyalists (in the COR),the deputies will do
what the government wants."


8. (C) Additionally, Salman said, the Bahraini government
does not need good relations between Sunnis and Shias. In
his view, the government feels that its role is to defend
Sunnis from the Shia majority. They think "Sunnis are Arabs,
and Shias belong to Iran. Sunnis have the wealth, and they
want to keep it." The GOB is afraid of the sects coming
together because of possible demands to share the country's
wealth. Taking the theme further, Salman said that the
government often says, "You belong to Iran." But what is
their evidence, he asked. "I was born here, live here, and
will die here. I was put in jail and exiled. But I am not
an agent for another country - not Iran, the United States or
any other."

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Goal an Elected Prime Minister
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9. (C) Al Wifaq's vision for the future, Salman said, is
that in 10 or 20 years, the King will still be in his
position, but the prime minister "will come from the people."
He wants a stable country with more democracy. "How many
more years until we have a constitutional monarchy," he
asked, in which the prime minister is elected by the people.
There is no democratic regime in the Arab world. Leaders use
excuses like Islam, problems with Israel, the U.S., or Iran
to avoid making changes. Addressing political Islam, he said
"the people are in charge of this world, not Allah," implying
that although he is a cleric, he is guided by real world
interests and not religion.


10. (C) Salman admitted that King Hamad had made some
reforms, but Bahrain was not a democracy. He does not
foresee a day when the head of state leaves his position
voluntarily, "like the U.S. president." These days, there is
more talk of reform and change in the region. But people
said the same things 50 years ago, and there has not been
significant progress since then. By comparison, change came
to Eastern Europe and Russia in the space of only 3-4 years.
He identified three reasons for the lack of change. First,
regimes do not want to give up power. Second, in many
countries, the people do not have the capability to speak
with one voice to demand democracy because they are divided
by sect, or between Islamists and secularists. Third, the
U.S. and UK work with the regimes to pursue their national
interests. He acknowledged that the United States was
pushing for reform, but its enthusiasm had waned in the past
two years. Salman said the U.S. could push harder in Bahrain.

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Haq Movement Represents Challenge
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11. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question, Salman
admitted that the hardline Shia Haq Movement represents a

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challenge for Al Wifaq. What the young people are doing in
the streets, burning tires and making a lot of noise, he
said, is not right. He expects that Haq will continue to ask
Al Wifaq what it has accomplished by joining the political
system. He said he tells the government that it should let
parliament achieve something for the people as a way to
disarm Haq, improve stability, and identify mid- to long-term
solutions. But if Haq supporters decide to take to the
streets, "I can't control them and it is not my
responsibility."

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Comment
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12. (C) Salman's somber mood could indicate the pressure he
feels to take on the daunting political challenges his group
faces, particularly in the medium to long term. Salman has
shown himself to be a shrewd political operator when he needs
to be, and at times a genuine leader of the Shia community.
He will need to use all of his abilities, working within the
parliament and with the government, to generate enough
successes to justify Al Wifaq's participation in the
political system. He currently has the support of the street
to pursue Shia interests in parliament, but that support will
not last forever.


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