MFA ASSISTANT U/S DISCUSSES GSD, IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000170

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV BA IR REGION
SUBJECT: MFA ASSISTANT U/S DISCUSSES GSD, IRAN

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) MFA Assistant Undersecretary Shaikh Abdul Aziz Al
Khalifa expressed Bahrain's hope February 14 that progress on
the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD) would continue as a result
of the upcoming visits to the U.S. by Crown Prince Shaikh
Salman and FM Shaikh Khalid. He stressed that forward
movement on all six pillars were a priority for Bahrain. He
noted that Iranian officials had voiced concern to GOB
officials following the GCC Plus Two meeting in Kuwait
because they thought the parties were developing a secret
plan against Iran. Shaikh Abdul Aziz expressed hope that the
recent diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea would spur
the Iranians to consider a similar path. Iran's economic
situation is becoming untenable and U.S.-Bahraini cooperation
serves as a notice to Iran that they are "backing the wrong
players" and heading in the wrong direction. End Summary.

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Progress on GSD
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2. (C) In a conversation February 14 with PM DAS Coulter and
NEA/ARP Office Director Misenheimer, MFA Assistant
Undersecretary for Coordination and Follow Up Shaikh Abdul
Aziz Bin Mubarak Al Khalifa expressed Bahrain's continued
interest in seeing the GSD move forward without any breaks in
progress. DAS Coulter assured him that the USG was committed
to using the upcoming visits to the U.S. by CP Shaikh Salman
Bin Hamad Al Khalifa and FM Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al
Khalifa to take the next steps in the GSD process. Shaikh
Abdul Aziz stressed that all six GSD pillars were important
to Bahrain. The CP personally wants to head the talks and
knows that his visit is a "golden opportunity" to strengthen
the bilateral relationship. As examples of Bahrain's
commitment to the GSD, Shaikh Abdul Aziz cited Bahrain's Navy
participation in the U.S.-led Coalition Task Forces and the
completion of a bilateral MOU on challenge inspections under
the Chemical Weapons Treaty. He stressed, "We want to go all
the way."

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GCC Plus Two and Iran
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3. (C) Referring to the recent GCC Plus Two meeting in
Kuwait, Shaikh Abdul Aziz said that Iranian officials "hit
the roof" out of concern that the joint statement following
the meeting did not explicitly mention Iran. They were
convinced this indicated the existence of a secret plan
against Iran. Referring to the standoff over its nuclear
program, Shaikh Abdul Aziz said that Iran is the most
stubborn nation in the world and will present an unbending
front, but it will blink at the last moment. Reacting
positively to DAS Coulter's statement that the USG approach
with Iran is "Deter, Not Provoke," he said, "I love the
phrase and support it all the way." As long as Iran is not
provoked, it will hang itself through its current policy. He
stressed, however, that Iran will not be humbled; it will
spin whatever outcome into a victory for Iran. "Good will
prevail, it just takes patience, but Iran will rally if it
feels threatened."


4. (C) Referring to the recent diplomatic breakthrough with
North Korea, Shaikh Abdul Aziz expressed hope that the
Iranians would learn they "can join our camp, but they need
to go along with the rules." He is scheduled to meet with
the current Iranian ambassador, who completes his tour in
Bahrain soon. He plans to discuss with him progress with
North Korea and encourage Iran to take similar steps. FM
Shaikh Khalid will visit Iran soon with Minister of Oil and
Gas Affairs Dr. Abdul Hussein Ali Mirza to explore economic
cooperation, but the FM will encourage the Iranians to move
on the diplomatic front regarding their nuclear program.


5. (C) In terms of a strategic approach to the situation
with Iran, Shaikh Abdul Aziz said that there were varying
opinions, but in general the GOB viewed the military option
as the wrong choice. Iran used to be the largest exporter of
oil, but they are now importing petroleum products. "This
can't go on for long," he said, "they must realize they are
backing the wrong players." Close cooperation between
Bahrain and the U.S. is good for Bahrain and shows the
Iranians that they are going in the wrong direction.


6. (C) When asked about recent reports of possible friction
within the Iranian leadership, Shaikh Abdul Aziz said that

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the Iranian people are tired, but the one issue that unites
the country is their nuclear program. The people had a level
of optimism under former President Khatami, but now the
climate had become more restrictive. He sees some
frustration within the Iranian government toward President
Ahmedinejad, but Ahmedinejad is able to move the people on
the streets.

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