HUMAN RIGHTS NGO TERMS ORTEGA GOVERNMENT "WORST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000182

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR KDEM NU PREL
SUBJECT: HUMAN RIGHTS NGO TERMS ORTEGA GOVERNMENT "WORST
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO"


Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Members of the Permanent Human Rights
Council (CPDH) believe that the turn the Ortega government
has taken since it assumed power is the "worst-nightmare
scenario." They recently warned the Ambassador that
President Ortega will not leave office for at least ten years
unless Nicaragua's democratic forces unite to block him, and
argued that civil society must take the lead in countering
Ortega's rush to consolidate power. The CPDH will continue
its cases filed before the IAHCR against Ortega and a number
of other Sandinista leaders for their alleged atrocities
committed against Nicaragua's indigenous population during
the 1980s and will also file the cases before the Spanish
courts. Ortega will do his utmost to keep the liberals and
other opposition forces divided. After all, these divisions
allowed him to win the election, and if they continue, will
facilitate his plans. End Summary.

"Worst Scenario" Came to Pass
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2. (C) On January 19, CPDH VP Carlos Huembes, Board member
Raymond Genie, and Executive Director Marcos Carmona met with
the Ambassador, USAID director, and Poloffs to discuss views
on the current political situation and how it affects human
rights. Genie lamented that with Ortega's election and his
clear efforts to consolidate his power from the start of his
term in office meant that the "worst nightmare" had come to
pass. He warned that Sandinista National Liberation Front
(FSLN) President Daniel Ortega will not leave office for at
least ten years unless Nicaragua's democratic forces unite to
block him.

Civil Society Must Take the Lead
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3. (C) Huembes remarked that the opposition parties are weak
and divided. He asserted that these parties have not
seriously contested Ortega's efforts to expedite a number of
revisions to Law 290, which if passed, will play into
Ortega's desired objective, an authoritarian state. Thus,
civil society must take the lead in countering Ortega's rush
to consolidate power.


4. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's query regarding which
of Ortega's actions are most serious, Genie cited the risk
that the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) will fall into the
FSLN "trap" of constitutional reforms. If the ALN enters
into this "game," it could lose, as the FSLN will make sure
the game advantages Ortega, warned Genie. Huembes lamented
that the ALN and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) are
jockeying for the FSLN's favor, while they should instead be
trying to unite against Ortega's party. He indicated that
the crux of the problem is PLC leader/convicted money
launderer Arnoldo Aleman's dependence on Ortega and his fear
that Ortega will pop him back in jail if PLC lawmakers do not
cooperate with the FSLN's legislative agenda. If enough of
the PLC deputies oppose Ortega, he would no longer enjoy a
simple majority (47 votes) and certainly not a qualified
majority (56 votes) required for constitutional reforms.
Genie was at a loss, however, how to break Ortega's hold on
Aleman.


5. (C) (Comment: If one combines the votes of FSLN and PLC
Assembly deputies, plus three others who could also vote for
the FSLN (ALN's Salvador Talavera and MRS' Juan Ramon Jimenez
and Mario Valle),the FSLN could achieve the 2/3 majority.
On the other hand, the opposition would probably require a
few votes from the FSLN-associated Convergencia to even
achieve a simple majority, as we can expect some of the PLC
deputies to remain loyal to Aleman.)

Media Also on the Front Line
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6. (C) The Ambassador raised the special vulnerabilities of
the media and the education sectors. Huembes, who shared
these concerns, commented that the media has been fairly
active in questioning Ortega's recent actions, including
PLC-affiliated Radio Corporacion. The risk is that as the
"intimidation factor" escalates, the media will become
increasingly reluctant to speak up, underscoring the need for
strong support for the opposition media to counter these
fears. Genie warned that Cuban and Venezuelan educators and
military advisers are already starting to arrive and could
quickly change the panorama.

Oxfam in Ortega's Orbit?
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7. (C) Expanding on the subject of civil society, Carmona
estimated that about 96% of Nicaragua's NGOs are
pro-Sandinista, many existing on paper only (this is also
true for non-Sandinista NGOs). Of the 470 or so who benefit
from foreign aid, about 98% are Sandinista, claimed Carmona,
who noted that clearly the liberals are disadvantaged in this
field. He then alerted us to Ortega's appointment of
Valdrack Jaentschke (former Sandinista-sympathizing
coordinator of the UNDP's Atlantic Coast programs),to lead
the Foreign Ministry's office that controls the disbursements
of donor funds (largely European) to NGOs that are likely to
support Ortega's agenda. Further, Oxfam -- which he claimed
has been designated by the Scandinavian countries to
coordinate some $10 million of their assistance to Nicaragua
-- is sympathetic to Ortega.

CPDH to Continue Cases before IAHCR, Approach Spain
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8. (C) Moving on to CPDH's plans, Carmona assured the
Ambassador that it will continue its cases filed before the
Inter-American Human Rights Commission (IAHCR) against Daniel
Ortega and a number of other Sandinista leaders for their
alleged atrocities committed against Nicaragua's Atlantic
Coast indigenous Miskito population during the 1980s. He
explained that these continued efforts will dispel Sandinista
campaign allegations that the CPDH's defense of the Miskitos
was purely a political ploy to discredit Ortega.


9. (C) Carmona added that the CPDH intends to bring the
cases before the Spanish courts, probably by March; the CPDH
is currently working with a Spanish lawyer to prepare the
litigation. Carmona added that some CARICOM member states
have also shown an interest in helping the Miskitos. The
biggest challenge will be financial backing; while the
Taiwanese used to contribute through the Foreign Ministry,
now that it is in the hands of the Sandinista government, the
Taiwanese must find another way to support CPDH's efforts,
explained Carmona.

Unions Can Also Play a Role
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10. (C) Huembes, who is also a leader of CTN, one of
Nicaragua's unions unaffiliated with the FSLN, suggested that
labor and union power could also help counter Ortega's
excesses. He remarked that a number of FSLN-affiliated
unions had recently received a letter from FSLN lawmaker
Gustavo Porras (who owns a number of small private clinics)
"instructing" these unions that out of loyalty to President
Ortega they must refrain from striking or collective
bargaining. The Ambassador offered to meet with independent
unions and suggested that Huembes contact the AFL-CIO
regional representative in Guatemala to seek his guidance.
At the close of the meeting, the CPDH presented a plaque in
recognition of the Ambassador's contributions to defending
human rights in Nicaragua.

Comment
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11. (C) We can be certain that Ortega will do his utmost to
keep the liberals and other opposition forces divided. After
all, these divisions allowed him to win the election, and if
they continue, will facilitate his plans. Huembes'
description of the letter ordering labor unions to refrain
from striking is a flashback from the 1980s Sandinista era
and suggests that his mindset has not substantially changed.


TRIVELLI