BONILLA: LIBERALS MUST MEND THEIR DIFFERENCES OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000181

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: BONILLA: LIBERALS MUST MEND THEIR DIFFERENCES OR
LOSE NICARAGUA TO ORTEGA

REF: MANAGUA 0175

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) lawmaker
Yamileth Bonilla, who heads the National Assembly's Foreign
Affairs Committee, believes that President Ortega's efforts
to consolidate his power only days after assuming office have
shocked the ALN and rival Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC)
into realizing they must either work together or Nicaragua
will suffer an Ortega regime for at least ten years. Bonilla
recently told us that ALN and PLC lawmakers are negotiating
to downplay their differences and focus instead on their
shared goal to slow Ortega's apparent rush to change
Nicaragua's political model. These modest signs of ALN-PLC
rapprochement are encouraging, but we can expect the
Sandinistas and those PLC lawmakers still unequivocally tied
to Aleman will attempt to derail these efforts. We will
continue to encourage opposition lawmakers to seek common
ground and will reach out to Convergencia legislators and
FSLN dissidents. End Summary.

Ortega Shock Therapy Prompts Liberal Rapprochement
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2. (C) ALN National Assembly lawmaker Yamileth Bonilla --
who on January 19 was elected president of the Assembly's
Foreign Affairs Committee -- told PolCouns later the same day
that President Ortega's rush to consolidate his power only
days after assuming office has seriously shaken up the ALN
and the rival Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC). Bonilla,
who remarked that the two estranged liberal parties have
awakened to the harsh reality that either they work together
or Nicaragua will suffer an Ortega regime for at least ten
years, opined that PLC caudillo/convicted money launder
Arnoldo Aleman's influence on the PLC appears to be waning.
Ortega's evident intentions to alter the course of
Nicaragua's history along the path of an authoritarian
Chavez-style regime has been a "shock therapy," for the
liberals, opined Bonilla.


3. (C) Bonilla remarked that before Ortega's inauguration,
Aleman exercised almost total control of PLC lawmakers.
However, when Ortega assumed office and immediately showed
his true intentions, many PLC deputies realized that Aleman's
reliance on Ortega had caused him to sell his party and
Nicaragua to the Sandinistas. PolCouns recounted our 1/17th
meeting (septel) with PLC deputies Maximino Rodriguez (PLC
caucus leader),Jose Pallais, and Victor Duarte, noting that
the PLC deputies admitted that "liberal divisions and egos"
had enabled Ortega to win the election and conceded that
their differences with the ALN are petty in comparison to the
threats posed by Ortega. Rodriguez had also reported that he
and other PLC deputies are meeting with ALN lawmakers to seek
a common legislative agenda to offset Ortega's aggressive
power grab.


4. (C) Bonilla, who was pleased with our engagement with PLC
lawmakers, related how earlier in the day she and other ALN
deputies had met with several of their PLC counterparts --
including Maximino Rodriguez, Jose Pallais, Enrique Quinonez,
Francisco Aguirre Sacasa, Freddy Torrez, and Carlos Noguera.
The PLC deputies reported that 19 of their members are
willing to work with the ALN to block Ortega's efforts to
consolidate his power through legislative reforms, including
not approving Ortega's goal to "fast track" the passage of
reforms to Laws 290 and 228. Rather, they will insist on
dispatching the proposed revisions to either the Assembly's
Defense or Judicial Committee for review, she said. Bonilla
added that the PLC and ALN jointly hold the majority in both
committees and can therefore exercise considerable influence
over the final draft and that she had "persuaded" ALN
leader/former presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre to
support sending the proposed revisions first to committee
when the Assembly discusses the laws on January 24.


5. (C) On the subject of Law 290, which covers the
authorities and duties of the Executive, PolCouns commented
on the dangers posed by President Ortega's plan to establish
national "advisory councils" and "community councils" that in
essence will serve as parallel government structures.
Through Ortega, the national councils will impose their
policies on the ministries, while the community councils will
"guide" the National Assembly, possibly replace the
traditional role of civil society, and could end up receiving
the lion's share of development assistance to the detriment
of non-Sandinista NGOs. Bonilla, who agreed with this
assessment, added that she will raise it with ALN caucus as
well as the other lawmakers representing the other opposition
parties.

ALN and PLC Focus on Shared Agenda, Confidence Building
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6. (C) Expanding on the efforts of ALN and PLC lawmakers to
minimize their differences to counter Ortega, Bonilla
explained that the negotiators of both parties are trying to
set aside the old game of picking off each others' followers
and instead are focusing on creating a common legislative
agenda. While she was hopeful that eventually the two
liberal parties will form a more formal alliance, perhaps to
the point of running together for the 2008 municipal
elections, she acknowledged that for now, the ALN and PLC
must avoid falling back into the "blame game," and rather,
strive to build mutual confidence through their shared
interests.


7. (C) PolCouns recounted that ALN caucus leader Maria
Eugenia Sequeira had described to her on January 18 how PLC
deputy/Assembly Board secretary Wilfredo Navarro had
"betrayed" the PLC caucus' decision earlier that day to
oppose the fast-tracking of Laws 290 and 228. During a
meeting of the FSLN, ALN, and PLC caucuses with President
Ortega later in the day, Navarro had "offered up" his party's
support to vote on the laws the following day. Sequeira
opined that Navarro was acting on Aleman's instructions in
response to Ortega's orders. Bonilla, who offered a similar
readout on the incident and noted that Navarro was one of the
PLC deputies who blocked a number of ALN efforts late last
year to reengage the PLC outside of Aleman's orbit, then
shared her frustration over "personal differences" with
Sequeira. PolCouns urged Bonilla to set aside these
differences, as both lawmakers are valuable leaders who can
each contribute to the daunting task ahead.

But Diverge over Delaying Constitutional Reforms
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8. (C) Bonilla explained that earlier in the day the ALN
caucus had voted with the FSLN to delay the implementation of
a number of constitutional reforms, which would erode the
power of the Executive and establish new independent
regulatory agencies, as part of her party's effort to "break"
or at least "weaken" Aleman's pact with Ortega. While she
recognized that FSLN lawmakers assurances they will "support"
future Assembly deliberations on Constitutional reforms --
including ALN's proposal to end presidential reelection and
to require a presidential candidate must win at least 50
percent of the popular vote to win the election on the first
round -- are tenuous and could instead open a "Pandora's box"
to a full-fledged constitutional assembly to Ortega's liking.
However, at this juncture, any effort to erode the FSLN-PLC
pact should take precedence, asserted Bonilla.

The Numbers Game
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9. (C) Calculating out loud, Bonilla concluded that the sum
of the ALN's 23 votes (Montealegre and former President
Bolanos),19 PLC votes, plus the Sandinista Renovation
Movement's (MRS) three votes total 45, just short of the 47
required for a simple legislative majority. PolCouns noted
that with this arrangement, the FSLN plus its allies would no
longer enjoy a 2/3 majority (56 votes),but it would still
maintain a simple majority in the Assembly. PolCouns
inquired whether any of the Assembly Convergencia lawmakers
allied with the FSLN might consider voting against the FSLN
on the proposed reforms to Laws 290 and 228 and other
legislation, for example Augustin Jarquin or Miriam Arguello.
Bonilla, who related that Jarquin and Arguello appear to be
"uneasy" over Ortega's push to ram through questionable
legislation and are dissatisfied with the fact he is not
appointing Convergencia members to his government, agreed
that Convergencia lawmakers are worth approaching.

Comment
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10. (C) These fledgling signs of ALN-PLC rapprochement are
encouraging, but as in the past, we can expect that the
Sandinista and PLC lawmakers unequivocally tied to Aleman
will once more attempt to derail these efforts. In addition
to the seemingly growing divisions in the PLC camp, the ALN
must contend with its own internal rivalries. And,
opposition parties must develop alternatives to the
Sandinistas' growing network of NGOs offering tangible
solutions to Nicaraguan communities. We will continue to
encourage ALN, PLC, and MRS deputies to seek common ground
and to develop a campaign for a democratic model based on
good governance, justice, and accountability. We will also
reach out to Convergencia legislators and maintain our
dialogue with FSLN dissidents like Alejandro Martinez Cuenca.

TRIVELLI