ALN NEGLECTING DISGRUNTLED LIBERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000125

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: ALN NEGLECTING DISGRUNTLED LIBERALS

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: The Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) is
missing an historic opportunity to capture disgruntled
Liberal voters from the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC),
claims Liberal Matagalpino Eugenio Rodriguez. According to
Rodriguez, Liberals in key northern areas are upset with the
PLC for "lying" during the recent national elections
campaign, but the ALN structure virtually "disbanded" after
the elections and no one is picking the low-hanging fruit.
He does not believe that the PLC will reform from within and
oust its discredited leadership, although some National
Assembly deputies and local leaders may be "salvageable."
End Summary.


2. (C) Poloff met with Liberal Matagalpa city councilor
Eugenio Rodriguez on January 16 to discuss the future of the
ALN and the PLC in Nicaraguan politics after the elections.
During the pre-election campaign, Rodriguez created an
organization (GANARAM) within the PLC to support Eduardo
Montealegre, the presidential candidate for the ALN. He
indicated that he no longer considers himself part of the
PLC. Although he has not formally joined the ALN, he
clearly supports this party and the leadership of Montealegre.


3. (C) Rodriguez agreed that the PLC misinformation campaign
regarding Montealegre's candidacy -- especially the 11th-hour
distribution of false letters of resignation -- caused many
Liberals sympathetic to the ALN in Matagalpa, Jinotega, Nueva
Segovia, and other northern areas to waiver and vote for PLC
candidate Jose Rizo in an effort to defeat Daniel Ortega.
Once the PLC's deception was revealed after the election,
however, these voters felt betrayed by the PLC. Rodriguez
commented that these voters are ready to support the ALN, but
ALN officials are nowhere to be seen in the northern regions,
having redirected their focus to business and professional
activities.


4. (C) Rodriguez does not believe that the PLC's "internal
restructuring" will lead to substantive changes. Although he
appreciated Rizo's post-election remarks calling for
convicted PLC chief and ex-President Arnoldo Aleman to leave
the party, he agreed that Rizo no longer exercises much
influence in the PLC. Rodriguez mentioned that some PLC
deputies may be pulled away from Aleman, specifically naming
fellow Matagalpino Freddy Torres and ex-Foreign Minister
Francisco Aguirre Sacasa.


5. (C) Rodriguez equivocated when asked how the ALN should
select candidates for the 2008 municipal elections. He said
that the 2006 national primaries to select deputy candidates
had "left a bad taste" in his mouth since many of the winners
had their positions "adjusted" to make room for alliance
members. Rodriguez commented that "the people don't believe
in polls," although they might work if the sample size was
large enough. He agreed in principle that the ALN should use
a transparent method of selection, but then noted that it is
better to have a "loyal dog" who will stick with the party.
Rodriguez mentioned the example of Horacio Brenes, the PLC
First Councilor in Matagalpa who joined the FSLN after
receiving a substantial bribe. Rodriguez claimed that the
FSLN had offered him personally $50,000, a scholarship for
his daughter, and a job for life in exchange for abandoning
the Liberals during the campaign, but he refused.


6. (C) Comment: We have heard from several contacts that many
in the PLC are uncomfortable with the ongoing PLC-FSLN
political pact and Aleman's continued domination of the
greatly weakened party. ALN deputy Eliseo Nunez, Sr. will
provide us with a list of PLC deputies who may be willing to
vote independently. Barring a full implosion of the PLC,
however, the ALN must work harder to win over Liberal votes
before the 2008 municipal elections.
TRIVELLI