Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LUSAKA510
2007-04-27 09:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

OASIS FORUM REIGNITES CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM DEBATE

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0510/01 1170913
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270913Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4324
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 000510 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZA
SUBJECT: OASIS FORUM REIGNITES CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM DEBATE

REF: A. LUSAKA 06 120


B. LUSAKA 05 1537

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 000510

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZA
SUBJECT: OASIS FORUM REIGNITES CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM DEBATE

REF: A. LUSAKA 06 120


B. LUSAKA 05 1537


1. (SBU) Summary: Zambia's civil-society umbrella group, the
Oasis Forum, recently declared a "constitutional struggle"
and introduced a 10-step, 71-week, "roadmap" to a new
constitution for Zambia. In a letter that was published in
the media, President Mwanawasa provided a legal explanation
of why the Oasis Forum plan is unconstitutional and said that
the GRZ would implement its own roadmap to constitutional
reform. Oasis Forum leaders believe that the President's
legal arguments are without merit and that the GRZ plan,
which will take approximately five years to complete, is
unnecessarily expensive and complicated. The Oasis Forum is
planning a campaign of public protests and inside political
"arm twisting" to force the GRZ and ruling Movement for
Multi-party Democracy (MMD) politicians to engage on the
constitutional reform issue in good faith. End Summary.

Oasis Forum Reignites Constitutional Debate
--------------


2. (SBU) The Oasis Forum recently reinvigorated the issue of
constitutional reform in Zambia when it declared a
"constitutional struggle" and introduced a ten-step "roadmap"
that will lead to the adoption of a new constitution. The
Oasis Forum, which is comprised of five leading church groups
and civil society organizations, estimated that it would take
71 weeks to complete the steps in the roadmap, at a cost of
approximately 25 billion kwacha (USD six million). If begun
in July, the Oasis Forum plan could give Zambia a new
constitution by the end of 2008.


3. (SBU) The Oasis Forum plan calls for Parliament to begin
the constitutional reform process by enacting a bill to
establish a Constituent Assembly. Local councilors would
then be nominated to serve as delegates to the Constituent
Assembly and would draft a new constitution, using the
December 2005 Constitution Review Commission's (CRC)
recommendations as a starting point (Ref A). After the
Constituent Assembly drafts and approves a new constitution,
the President will call for a national referendum to allow
voters to consider and approve the document. Assuming that
voters approve, the National Assembly will then formally
enact the new constitution, which will be assented to by the

President.

President: Constitutional Reform Must Be Constitutional
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) In a letter published as a paid advertisement in the
state-controlled media as well as the independent Post
newspaper, President Mwanawasa said that the GRZ would move
forward with constitutional reform but would not follow the
Oasis Forum plan, which violates Zambia's existing
constitution. The President based his position on
constitutional arguments that the government put forward more
than a year ago (Ref A). Specifically, the President argued
that because Article 62 provides that legislative authority
is vested exclusively in Parliament, it would be
unconstitutional to delegate the legislative function to a
Constituent Assembly.


5. (SBU) Furthermore, the President continued, any
constituent assembly bill would have to comply with the
provisions of Article 79. Article 79 requires a national
referendum to approve "any bill for the alteration of Part
III of this Constitution or of this Article..." Because the
Constituent Assembly would presumably alter Part III of the
existing constitution, which relates to the protection of the
fundamental rights and freedoms of the individual, Article 79
applies. "If your intention implicitly is to introduce a
Constituent Assembly with legally binding effect, as
suggested by the Mung'omba Constitution Review Commission
then Articles 62 and 79 must be complied with" the President
wrote. He concluded that "a possible meeting between us (to
discuss the constitutional issue) would serve no useful
purpose."

GRZ "Roadmap" to New Constitution
--------------


6. (SBU) To address the constitutional concerns raised by the
President - legitimate or not - the GRZ introduced its own
"roadmap" to a new constitution in December 2006. The
government's roadmap is considerably more complex than the
Oasis Forum's, providing for a 14-step process to adopt a new
constitution that would take approximately 300 weeks to
complete. In addition to being much more time-consuming than
the Oasis Forum plan, the government's roadmap would also be
much more expensive.


LUSAKA 00000510 002 OF 003



7. (SBU) Among other costly and time-consuming steps, the
GRZ plan calls for a census to determine the number of voters
eligible to vote in a national referendum to amend Article

79. Following the referendum to amend Article 79, the plan
suggests that a second referendum may be necessary to adopt
the final constitution recommended by the Constituent
Assembly. The roadmap also requires national elections to
determine delegates who will represent Zambia's 150
constituencies in the Constituent Assembly. Although post
has not seen a budget for the GRZ roadmap, the cost of
conducting a census, a national referendum (or two),and a
national election, in addition to the costs of convening
delegates for six months (the government's timeframe),would
be daunting, if not insurmountable.

Oasis Forum Cynical
--------------


8. (SBU) Oasis Forum leaders believe that the GRZ does not
want a new constitution and is looking for legal and
financial hurdles that would make it difficult, if not
impossible, to achieve reform prior to the 2011 national
elections. In making the case that the President is less
than sincere, Catholic Center for Justice Development and
Peace (CCJDP) Director Samuel Mulafulafu, noted to Poloff
that government has been promising movement on a new
constitution for several years. The Constitution Review
Commission began taking comments on new constitution in 2003
and published an 800-plus page report at the end of 2005.
Since that time the GRZ has only stalled, said Mulafulafu.
"They do not want a new constitution, for whatever reason,"
he concluded.


9. (SBU) The Oasis Forum responded to the President's legal
and constitutional arguments in an April 24 letter that was
released to the public. Accusing the President of having
"hijacked the constitution-making process," the letter argued
that Parliament has the authority to enact a constituent
assembly bill and should do so immediately. Article 79
applies to alterations or amendments of the existing
constitution; it does not apply to the process of drafting
and adopting an entirely new constitution. In essence,
because the existing constitution "cannot dictate its own
demise and replacement," Article 79 cannot require a
referendum to empower a Constituent Assembly. The Oasis
Forum also dismissed the President's position that a census
would be required to determine the number of voters eligible
to vote in a referendum, noting that results from the 2000
census are valid until 2010. Concluding that the
constitutional issue must be decided by the people, the
letter rejected suggestions that the Oasis Forum seek a High
Court opinion regarding the President's arguments.

Pressure Campaign Planned
--------------


10. (SBU) The Oasis Forum is planning a campaign of public
protests and inside "political arm twisting" when Parliament
reconvenes in June, Mulafulafu said. The goal of the
campaign will be to pressure the government into introducing
a constituent assembly bill in Parliament. Opposition
Members of Parliament (MPs),as well as a few members of the
ruling MMD, have already voiced support for a constituent
assembly bill, Mulafulafu said, but the GRZ must introduce
the bill if it is to have a chance of passing. Mulafulafu
recalled that an opposition MP introduced a constituent
assembly bill in Parliament in November 2005 but the bill did
not get far (Ref B).


11. (SBU) The government must also introduce the constituent
assembly bill soon. The last push to reform the constitution
in late 2005 failed partly because the issue was lost in the
2006 presidential and parliamentary campaign (Ref B). The
Oasis Form believes that it must act soon so that a new
constitution can be in place before candidates begin to
campaign for the 2011 presidential and parliamentary
elections. Once the campaign season gets underway, it will
be much more difficult to draft and adopt a new constitution,
Mulafulafu said.

Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) The Oasis Forum is best known for its role in
organizing wide-spread but peaceful protests that ultimately
forced former President Chiluba to abandon a bid for a third
term in 2001. It may be more difficult to mount a similarly
effective campaign in support of constitutional reform,
however. Previous attempts by the Oasis Forum to pressure
the GRZ to act have not gone far, perhaps because the issue
of the constitution does not stir the public in the way the
third term issue did. The President is under no legal

LUSAKA 00000510 003 OF 003


obligation to establish a Constituent Assembly and is
unlikely to do so absent significant public and political
pressure. Whether the Oasis Forum is up to the task will be
more apparent when Parliament reconvenes in June.
MARTINEZ