ZAMBIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000218

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP

Refs: A) 06 Lusaka 688 B) 06 Lusaka 1694 and previous; C) Lusaka 155

D) 06 Lusaka 1518


1. (U) Topics Covered:

-- United Party for National Development Seeks Pact with MMD
-- Hakainde Hichilmema to Join MMD?
-- Trouble in the UDA
-- Mwanawasa and MMD Look to the Future
-- ULP's Bob Sichinga Quits
-- Defiance in Patriotic Front
-- Parliamentary Election Petition Update


UPND Seeks Pact with MMD
--------------


1. (SBU) Zambian political parties continue to maneuver to
consolidate strengths, repair damage, and prepare for the future in
the aftermath of the September 2006 presidential and parliamentary
elections. Political commentators speculate that the United Party
for National Development (UPND) is seeking a political pact with the
ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) as MPs looks to
shore up their flagging prospects for re-election on the party
ticket. The UPND suffered a severe blow when its founder and
president Anderson Mazoka died in May 2006 (Ref A) and was further
weakened during the presidential campaign, when members of the
party's leadership defected after alleging tribalism in the party
ranks. Most recently, UPND Vice President Patrick Chisanga quit the
party (Ref B). UPND MPs are said to be seeking an agreement that
would allow them to stand for election on the MMD ticket in 2011.

Hichilema to Join MMD?
--------------


2. (SBU) UPND president Hakainde Hichilema may also be looking to
improve his national political prospects. Although Hichilema
received more than 25 percent of the vote in the presidential
election, many believe that he irreparably damaged his prospects for
office during the last campaign, when he closely identified himself
with the Tonga tribe that forms the UPND's base. Sebastian
Kopulande, former Special Advisor to President Mwanwasa, recently
told PolOff that, because of his perceived tribal leanings,
Hichilema does not stand a chance of gaining a national following in
Zambia. UNZA Professor of Political Science Neo Simutanyi agreed,
and told PolOff that he would not rule out the possibility that
Hichilema may try to jump ship to the MMD in order to take advantage
of the party's national organization. As discussed below in
paragraph 6, President Mwanawasa may be agreeable to a Hichilema
candidacy on the MMD ticket--though other party stalwarts might be
less enthusiastic.


3. (SBU) Not surprisingly, the UPND denies that it is pursuing a
pact with the MMD. UPND Chairman spokesperson, Charles Kakoma
emphasized that Hichilema, has not consulted with the MMD, adding
that the National Management Committee (NMC) -- the party's policy
making body -- has not discussed the matter. Despite Kokoma's
denials, at least ten UPND MPs (led by Mbabala and Kalomo MPs
Emmanuel Hachipuka and Request Muntanga),were recently reported to
have been pushing for a pact with the ruling party. MMD spokesman
and Deputy Minister of Works and Supply, Ben Tetamashimba confirmed
to media sources that some UPND MPs had approached him over a
possible pact with the MMD.

Trouble in the UDA
--------------


4. (SBU) To add to the UPND's difficulties, the United Democratic
Alliance, the three-party alliance anchored by the UPND, (the other
two participating parties are the Forum for Democratic Development
(FDD) and the United National Independence Party (UNIP)) could be
nearing an end. As has always been the case in the UDA, the
question of leadership is at the center of the alliance's crisis,
which was sparked by FDD President Edith Nawakwi's announcement in
November that she intended to contest the 2011 presidential
elections on the UDA ticket. Nawakwi's announcement displeased
Hichilema, who had previously indicated that he would be UDA's
presidential candidate in 2011. Not to be left out of the family
feud, UNIP Vice President Njekwa Anamela sharply criticized the UPND
and its leadership for attempting to recruit UNIP members to join
the party. The developments are likely to create big, possibly
fatal, cracks in the alliance.

Mwanawasa and MMD Look to the Future
--------------


5. (SBU) The MMD has also been focusing on its political future. At
the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting held on
February 11, 2007, President Mwanawasa informed the NEC that he will
not re-contest the MMD presidency when his term of office expires at
the party's next convention, scheduled for 2009 or 2010.

LUSAKA 00000218 002 OF 002


Consequently, the posts of MMD President and MMD Vice President
(currently vacant) will be filled at that convention. The President
made clear that he would not select his successor, but would leave
that task to MMD leaders and members. Mwanawasa encouraged members
to look within and outside the party for a candidate with integrity
and high morals.


6. (SBU) Although the President did not name any potential
candidates, commentators took his statement that the MMD should look
outside the party for its next leader to be an implicit endorsement
of Hichilema. Mwanawasa appears to favor Hichilema -- the UPND
leader has recently been seen visiting State House and he was a
prominent presence at the state dinner in honor of Chinese President
Hu Jintao (Ref C). Moreover, Hichilema has been publicly supportive
of Mwanawasa and the MMD and the two leaders appear to have few
differences. In contrast, Mwanawasa is reportedly unhappy with MMD
National Secretary, Katele Kalumba, whom he has accused of secretly
campaigning for the MMD presidency. Kulumba recently appeared in
court on corruption charges and many perceived the President's
statement that the next MMD leader should be a person of high morals
and integrity to be a direct rebuff to the National Secretary.

United Liberal Party's Bob Sichenga Quits
--------------


7. (SBU) United Liberal Party (ULP) Vice President, Robert "Bob"
Sichinga resigned from the ULP and formally retired from politics.
In announcing his retirement, Sichinga said at a press briefing that
he would set up a Trust -- which will be a non-partisan institution
-- to provide political, social, and economic and governance
consultancy services.

Defiance in Patriotic Front
--------------


8. (SBU) In an extension of his strategy to direct national politics
from the city and local government level, Patriotic Front (PF)
President, Michael Sata, recently directed that PF Mayors and
Councilors would not be allowed to attend state functions or even
receive President Mwanawasa when he travel to their towns. Sata's
directive breaks with tradition; historically mayors and councilors
have been non-partisan and participated in all state functions. The
new policy created a divide within the PF when, during the February
3-5 visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao, Lusaka Mayor, Susan
Nakazwe, and other PF Councilors defiantly attended State functions
that involved the Chinese leader. Sata threatened to discipline the
rebellious officials, but has not taken any action.

Parliamentary Election Petitions
--------------


9. (SBU) Losing candidates in the September 28 parliamentary
elections filed election petitions in 18 constituencies (Ref D).
Most of the petitions contain similar allegations of electoral
malpractice and irregularities, including that winning candidates
improperly influenced voters with food, money and clothing
materials, ferried voters to polling stations on polling day, and
caused traditional rulers to issues threats against opponents.
Several of the petitions have been resolved:

-- Lukashya Constituency: Former Vice President Lupando Mwape, who
petitioned the election of PF's Alfredah Mwamba, withdrew his
petition -- to take up his new appointment as Zambia's Ambassador to
the People's Republic of China.

-- Malole Contituency: The Lusaka High Court dismissed PF candidate
Matildah Mutale's petition of the election of independent candidate
Emmanuel Munaile. Although the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ)
agreed that it erroneously declared Munaile the winner of the Malole
seat, although he received 6,616 votes to Mutale's 7,214 votes, the
court dismissed Mutale's petition, finding that he had not signed
the affidavit in support of the petition, as required by law.
Mutale appealed the decision to the Supreme Court.

-- Kabushi Constituency: MMD's Geoffrey Mukala petitioned the
election of PF's Lombani Msichili. However, the case became moot
when Mukala died in January, 2007.

-- Milanzi Constituency : MMD's Rosemary Banda (former Minister of
Gender in Development in 2006) petitioned the election of UDA's Dr.
Chosani Njovu. The High Court dismissed the petition, finding that
it was not filed within the 30-day deadline.

-- Isoka West Constituency: ULP's Bob Sichinga petitioned the
election of MMD's Paul Sichamba. Sichinga later resigned from the
ULP (see para 7) and withdrew the petition, saying that he did not
want to divide the people of Isoka West.

MARTINEZ