MMD PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- MANY EYES ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001327

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZA
SUBJECT: MMD PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- MANY EYES ON THE
PRIZE

REF: A. LUSAKA 1303

B. LUSAKA 1182

C. LUSAKA 1127

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Classified By: Ambassador C. Martinez, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary. Contenders to be the Movement for Multiparty
Democracy presidential candidate for 2011 include party
stalwarts, Mwanawasa loyalists, and outsiders. Sitting Vice
President Banda is a long shot. With national elections
still years away, the current strong contenders are those
closest to President Mwanawasa: First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa,
Home Affairs Minister Ronnie Shikapwasha, and former Vice
President Lupando Mwape. End summary.


2. (U) Introduction: As President Mwanawasa begins the second
year of his second and final five-year term in office,
ambitious party cadres within the ruling Movement for
Multiparty Democracy (MMD) have already begun to turn their
focus to the 2011 presidential election. The MMD's firm grip
on the levers of power in Zambia make it the party to beat in

2011. The party's national congress, tentatively scheduled
for 2010, would be the natural forum for anointing
Mwanawasa's successor both as president of the MMD and of
Zambia. President Mwanawasa in recent months has stirred the
pot of speculation by saying that he would not rule out a
candidate from outside the party (ref C),then announcing
that he had asked the MMD National Executive Committee (NEC)
permission to name his preferred successor during its next
meeting (ref B). More recently, party spokesperson Benny
Tetamashimba said that the MMD had frozen campaigning for the
party presidency and that President Mwanawasa would continue
to be party president until the party identified a candidate
for the 2011 presidential election. The party's presidential
candidate, Tetamashimba said, would become the
party's president as well. Whatever the process for choosing
a candidate turns out to be, there are many candidates
waiting in the MMD wings. Following is a brief survey of
potential MMD candidates.

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MMD Stalwarts
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3. (U) Dr. Katele Kalumba: Kalumba is the MMD National
Secretary and a member of parliament for a remote district

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in Luapula province. A former Minister (Health, 1996-98),
Home Affairs (1998-99) and Finance (1999-2001),during the
Chiluba administration, Kalumba was elected National
Secretary in 2005 despite opposition from President Mwanawasa

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and the NEC. Kalumba has a solid base of support from his
home Luapula province and wields enormous authority and
influence over party structures and budgets, but he is also
facing seventeen charges of corruption relating to abuse of
office and theft of public funds during his time as Minister
of Finance. Kalumba also stands accused of diversion of
public funds amounting to two million Kwacha (approximately
USD 500,000) that were siphoned out of the National Assembly
accounting system. Both cases against Kalumba are currently
making their way through the courts, but he reportedly is
setting up campaign teams in Luapula, Northern and Copperbelt
provinces. Kalumba has an undergraduate degree in social
work from Washington University in St. Louis and a doctorate
from the University of Toronto.


4. (SBU) Michael Mabenga: Mabenga is the National Chairman
of the MMD and a member of Parliament from the Western
province constituency of Mulobezi. As Defense Minister
during President Mwanawasa's first term of office, Mabenga
was removed from office in August 2003 following a Supreme
Court decision affirming a finding of electoral malpractice
committed by Mabenga during his 2001 election to Parliament.
Mabenga was accused of diverting 30 million Kwacha
(approximately USD 7500) in Constituency Development Funds to
finance his campaigns. Despite a Supreme Court order that
Mabenga be investigated and prosecuted for the
misappropriation of funds, police did not act on the case.
In 2005, President Mwanawasa announced that the government
could not proceed with the case against Mabenga because of
the death of a key prosecution witness. Interestingly, when
Finance Deputy Minister Jonas Shakafuswa recently said that
MMD leaders who were linked to corruption allegations should
resign because they were bringing the party's name into
disrepute, Mabenga reacted by saying that he was not affected
by that statement because he had neither been arrested nor
convicted in a court of law (Comment: Such are the narrow
definitions of "clean" in the Zambian political context).

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Mwanawasa Insiders/Loyalists
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5. (SBU) Lupando Mwape: Mwape is currently Zambia's
ambassador to China and previously served as Vice President
of Zambia from October 2004 to October 2006. Mwape is
unfailingly loyal to President Mwanawasa, who saved Mwape
from political ignominy after he lost the election for MMD
provincial chairman for Northern Province in 2004. Mwanawasa
subsequently appointed Mwape as provincial minister and four
months later as vice president. Mwape lost his bid to retain
his seat in the National Assembly in the September 2006
tripartite elections, which meant he could not continue
serving as Vice President. His failure to win a constituency
raises some questions about his electability to national
office.


6. (SBU) Inonge Mbikusita Lewanika: Lewanika is currently
serving as the Zambian Ambassador to the United States, a
position she has held since 2002. She has been nominated by
Zambia as a candidate for Chair of the African Union
Commission. Lewanika began her career with UNICEF, ending up
in 1990 as the Regional Adviser for Women and Child
Development for West and Central Africa. A founding member
of the MMD in 1991, Lewanika resigned from the party in 1993
when allegations of corruption began to surface against the
ruling party. In 1996 she formed Agenda for Zambia, which
she represented in Parliament until 2001. She ran as a
presidential candidate on the Agenda for Zambia ticket in
2001, but lost to Mwanawasa, who subsequently nominated her
to be Ambassador for OAU Affairs within the Foreign Ministry
and then as Ambassador to the United States, where she has
been recognized as one of the more engaged and effective
Ambassadors from the region. Lewanika went to high school
and college in the United States and holds a Ph.D. from New
York University. Her father was once the Paramount Chief, or
Litunga, of the Lozi people in Western Province. Lewanika
has a reputation as an honest leader who is dedicated to
poverty reduction, but her tribal background in the Western
Province Royal Establishment and extensive amounts of time
spent outside of Zambia may work against her.


7. (U) Ronnie Shikapwasha: Shikapwasha currently serves as
Minister of Home Affairs and has been a prominent member of
Mwanawasa's cabinet since 2003. He is a first cousin to the
First Lady and is a member of the president's kitchen
cabinet of advisers. Shikapwasha originally served as
Minister of Home Affairs from 2003-2005, then as Minister of
Foreign Affairs from 2005-October 2006 before returning again
to Home Affairs. Shikapwasha has a military background,
having retired from the Air Force as a Lieutenant General in

1997. He is also an ordained Minister, but somewhat
ironically has been very open about being a womanizer.


8. (C) Maureen Mwanawasa: Maureen Mwanawasa has always been
a strong force in her husband's decision-making, and a
recent up-tick in her media profile has led to speculation
that she might be planning to try and follow in her husband's
footsteps. A lawyer by profession, Mwanawasa established the
Maureen Mwanawasa Community Initiative (MMCI) in 2002 to
assist the rural poor and vulnerable women and children. In
2002, a scandal emerged involving preferential contracting
procedures in an oil deal involving Zambezi Oil. The First
Lady, who had been involved in the deal and who opposition
leader Michael Sata alleged was pushing for oil imports from
Iran, quietly withdrew from the deal and the furor died down.
Sata supposedly has some damaging information about the
First Lady's involvement in the Zambezi Oil scandal, and in
2005 he blamed a critical fuel shortage in Zambia on
Mwanawasa's oil dealings.


9. (SBU) Mwanawasa's work through the MMCI has been
criticized as primarily politically motivated, and in 2002
President Mwanawasa intervened to block a parliamentary probe
into his wife's use of aid donations. Concerns about
the motives behind MMCI donations in key constituencies
immediately before by-elections led to changes in the
electoral code of conduct in 2006. Elections observers noted
that the changes in the code didn't make much difference, as
liberal MMCI donations showed up in Northern and Luapula
provinces where the MMD was in close races with the
opposition Patriotic Front. Mwanawasa's work with MMCI has
given her wide name recognition and enabled her to establish
links with the rural poor. In the last presidential
election, the bulk of the MMD's support came from poor rural
areas.


10. (SBU) In December 2006, Mrs. Mwanawasa received the
International Hope Award from the YWCA in New York in
recognition of her work on HIV/AIDS, and in January 2007, she
was elected president of the Organization of African
First Ladies' Associations. She also just participated in
the Saddleback Summit in the U.S. to commemorate World AIDS

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Day. Recent press coverage of Mrs. Mwanawasa donating water
pumps (as a local Catholic bishop commented to poloff, "she
was giving out seven foot-pumps - why bother covering such a
non-event?"),and making appearances at traditional
ceremonies have increased speculation that the First Lady is
looking to make a run for president. Mrs. Mwanawasa is
also said to be consulting with party leaders and traditional
chiefs about the possibility of running for president.

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The Outsiders
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11. (U) Clive Chirwa: Chirwa recently emerged as an aspiring
candidate, having joined the MMD only in September 2007.
Chirwa is a college engineering professor who has lived in
the UK for the past 17 years, and his announcement in
November 2007 (ref A) that he would seek the MMD presidency
ruffled feathers within the MMD. Chirwa is a relative
unknown and so far the only substantive issues he has raised
for debate revolve around transportation and transportation
infrastructure, his academic and consulting specialties.
Chirwa's candidacy may have something to with
the MMD's announcement that the party was freezing
campaigning for the MMD presidency.


12. (SBU) Nevers Mumba: Mumba is currently president of the
Reform Party, which he formed in 2005. Mumba has an
interesting history, having gained public attention first as
a television evangelist and then moving on to politics
when God told him to save Zambia through the ballot box.
Mumba founded the National Citizens Coalition (NCC) in 2001
and ran for president that same year, but garnered only two
percent of the vote. In 2003, he dissolved the NCC and
joined the MMD; Mwanawasa promptly rewarded him by nominating
him to be vice president after firing then-Vice President
Enoch Kavindele due to concerns about his involvement in
corruption. While Mumba was a relative political unknown at
the national level, his former party's platform of fighting
corruption and graft made Mumba a natural to bolster
Mwanawasa's own corruption fight. In October 2004, however,
Mwanawasa fired Mumba, ostensibly because Mumba made
"embarrassing and careless" remarks about links between
opposition parties and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
However, many observers believed that Mumba was fired because
of his clear ambition and popularity. Mumba was expelled
from the MMD in 2005 and formed the Reform Party, but he has
met and mended fences with Mwanawasa since then. Mumba has a
small political base, however, and his history with the MMD
is an obstacle to a serious run for the presidency on the MMD
ticket.

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The Long Shot
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13. (SBU) Rupiah Banda: Banda is currently serving as
Mwanawasa's vice president. A former Minister of Foreign
Affairs and long-time United National Independence Party
(UNIP) activist, Banda is 70 years old and was called from
retirement by President Mwanawasa in 2006. In contrast to
Mwanawasa, Banda is dynamic, personable and charming, but
he has very little support within the MMD (which he joined in
2006) and his age is likely to be a factor against him (Note:
the latter negatives are likely one reason Mwanawasa chose
him as Vice President in the first place).


14. (C) Comment: Clearly there is no lack of presidential
contenders within the MMD. There is limited history
to go on - Mwanawasa is the country's third president since
independence, and in the last transition then-President
Frederick Chiluba had the final word on his successor in

2001. After a rocky start with MMD cadres and a narrow and
disputed in the 2001 elections, Mwanawasa has built support
within the MMD and the population, and the MMD's more
convincing wins in the tripartite elections are testament to
Mwanawasa's gains. At this point, Mwanawasa insiders such as
Ronnie Shikapwasha, the First Lady, and Lupando Mwape appear
to have the best chances of becoming the presidential
candidate, but much can change in four years. End comment.
MARTINEZ