ZAMBIA COMMITTED TO SOUND DEBT MANAGEMENT, SAYS FINANCE

UNCLAS LUSAKA 001029

SIPDIS


TREASURY FOR TRINA RAND
USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/IEP/ANESA/OA
AF/S FOR MSHIELDS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA COMMITTED TO SOUND DEBT MANAGEMENT, SAYS FINANCE
MINISTER

Ref: Lusaka 155

Sensitive but unclassified-please protect accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: In the aftermath of high levels of bilateral and
multilateral debt forgiveness, Zambia has maintained discipline in
managing its external debt, according to the Minister of Finance and
National Planning. Domestic debt and arrears continue to be fairly
high, but government securities debt is being "restructured" through
a move away from short-dated to longer-dated debt instruments. A
Ministry official noted that despite political discussions and broad
framework agreements about new loan packages from China and other
countries, the Ministry has not finalized any new bilateral
loans--and hopes to keep it this way. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Government media reported on September 5 statements made
before Parliament by Minister of Finance and National Planning
Ng'andu Magande on Zambia's external debt position. The Minister
said that the country's external debt stock stood at USD 957.4
million at the end of 2006, and consisted of USD 562.4 million owed
to multilateral creditors such as the World Bank, IMF, and African
Development Bank, and USD 395 million owed to bilateral creditors.
Ronald Simwinga, Director of Investments and Debt Management at the
Ministry of Finance and National Planning explained to P/E Chief
that the bilateral debt included over USD 200 million of debt owed
to Brazil and Russia that is due to be forgiven, although agreements
are not yet finalized, and the remaining amount is debt owed to
Iraq, Kuwait and some old Chinese loans that were not part of
China's debt forgiveness package.


3. (U) In his remarks before the National Assembly, Magande affirmed
the Government of Zambia (GRZ)'s commitment to maintaining debt
sustainability in the aftermath of significant debt forgiveness, and
said the GRZ will seek concessional loans to support its development
programs when grants and other financing are insufficient. Magande
also announced that the GRZ was "up-to-date" on payments of
principle and interest on outstanding international loans.


4. (U) The GRZ still faces high levels of domestic debt and related
arrears, according to figures provided by Magande. Zambia's
domestic debt stock was Kw 8.9 trillion at the end of 2006 (USD 2.25
billion). A significant part of the domestic debt, Kw 6.7 trillion
(USD 1.675 billion),consists of government securities debt.
Magande said that the GRZ planned to manage its government
securities debt through "prudent cost and risk management." He
added that the GRZ is restructuring its domestic debt by reducing
short-dated instruments (90-day, 180-day and 270-day Treasury bills)
and increasing long-term instruments--the GRZ introduced seven, 10
and 15 year bonds in August 2007. (Comment: These bonds will help
the fledging mortgage market by providing banks and financial
service providers a gauge for pricing mortgage products, but also
have a serious downside--there is no secondary market at present,
and it is likely that there will be illegal trading of these
instruments. End comment.) The Minister also reported that at the
end of 2006, the stock of domestic arrears was Kw 970.8 billion (USD
242.7 million). Magande noted that the GRZ was committed to
reducing the level of arrears and had allocated budgetary resources
in its Medium Term Expenditure Framework for 2007-2009 to pay
arrears.


5. (SBU) Simwinga told P/E chief that in spite of numerous reports
in the local media about framework agreements for expanded lending
from China (Reftel) and new loan offers from other governments, no
such loan deals had been finalized. He noted that most of the
discussion was at the "political" level, and concrete agreements had
yet to materialize. In addition, he said that Ministry officials
are trying to make Zambian laws more stringent, so that entering
into new bilateral loan agreements becomes much more difficult.
Comment: The feedback regarding no new loans is encouraging, but
despite best efforts by technocrats such as Simwinga, the
politicians running the government may still make deals that
generate new debt obligations.

MARTINEZ