UNITA LEADER WANTS PRESSURE FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000871

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO USAID AFR/SD IMACNARIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2007
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL AO
SUBJECT: UNITA LEADER WANTS PRESSURE FOR ELECTIONS

REF: LUANDA 756

Classified By: CDA FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: UNITA President Isaias Samakuva and CDA
Francisco Fernandez discussed elections and party politics in
an August 20th meeting. Samakuva expressed concern over the
GRA's lack of urgency regarding elections and asked that the
USG strongly "encourage" the GRA to set a date for elections.
Despite continuing concerns about the voter registration
process and questionable chances in legislative elections,
Samakuva expressed UNITA's commitment to the electoral
process and a long-term strategy of party development at the
grassroots level. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Charge d'Affaires Francisco Fernandez and UNITA
President Isaias Samakuva discussed upcoming legislative
elections and the party's future in a meeting on August 20th

2007. Samakuva informed the Charge that he is still hopeful
for legislative elections in 2008, but said it is
increasingly difficult to believe that the GRA is on track to
conduct elections next year. He confirmed that President dos
Santos said that he sees no reasons why legislative elections
shouldn't occur in 2008 in an August 15th meeting between the
two leaders. Samakuva pointed out, however, that despite
similar personal assurances in the past, reasons for delays
always seem to crop up. He asked that the USG increase
pressure on the GRA to set a date for elections and stated
that high-level "encouragement" is needed. Samakuva did
note, however, that with 7.3 million already registered, it
was looking like the GRA's options to further delay the
legislative elections were closing.


3. (C) Samakuva noted some of his party's concerns with the
voter registration process, including allegations that the
government still hasn't registered in opposition strongholds.
UNITA does not, however, plan to publicly attack the GRA
over these issues at this time, as it believes such tactics
will simply supply a reason to once again extend the
registration process and further delay elections. Samakuva
also acknowledged that the separation of legislative and
presidential elections puts his party in an awkward position:
it will be both an opposition party and a member of the
National Reconstruction Government (GRN),holding ministry
and provincial government positions as negotiated in the
peace accords. Although decisions have not been made on
timing, he affirmed that the party will remove itself from
the GRN in advance of the elections, although he did not
clarify if he meant the legislative or presidential elections.


4. (C) Unlike the bold statements made by many opposition
leaders, Samakuva did not predict UNITA's victory or even
additional seats in legislative elections, but stated that
parties can't wait until they are certain they will win to
conduct elections. He did state, however, that he felt that
UNITA would not lose any ground in the Congress. While UNITA
research conducted in Luanda in 2005 indicated that 15
percent of UNITA members were leaning towards voting for
other parties, he was encouraged by the more than 50 percent
of MPLA members who indicated they were thinking of voting
outside the party. UNITA plans to conduct additional research
on these trends and develop strategies to lure voters to
their side.


5. (SBU) Samakuva stated that the party is continuing its
work to create a strong grassroots presence throughout the
country, and they plan to train 60,000 party members to cover
polling stations nationwide when elections are held. To
these ends, he would like to increase the party's capacity
building efforts with USAID and the USAID-funded
International Republican Institute.


6. (C) COMMENT: Samakuva, still basking in the glow of his
landslide victory over rival Abel Chivukuvuku (reftel),
displayed the confident aura of a leader with a mandate to
strengthen the party's base and create a long-term strategy
for growth. Samakuva has opted to keep his complaints about
GRA actions and possible registration irregularities behind
closed doors to avoid giving the GRA an excuse for further
delaying elections. He seems to accept that the problems in
voter registration are part of the democratic learning curve
and will continue to work publicly with the government
towards elections. However, he clearly hopes to prod the
international community to use its limited political capital
to push the GRA towards a firm electoral calendar. END
COMMENT
FERNANDEZ