SCENESETTER FOR DAS CAROL THOMPSON'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUANDA 000056

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF AND AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EAID PHUM AO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS CAROL THOMPSON'S VISIT TO
ANGOLA

REF: STATE 07409

Classified By: Ambassador Cynthia G. Efird for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) DAS Thompson, I want to warmly welcome you to Angola.
Your visit follows the highly successful 2006 visits of
General Ward, A/S Lowenkron and then-PDAS Pittman. Your
visit, which will be followed by the February ship visit of
the USS Kaufmann, starts 2007 positively towards the USG goal
of reinforcing our bilateral relationship and strengthening
high-level engagement with the GRA. Angola is at a pivotal
juncture in its development and reconstruction: uniquely
blessed with natural resources, but emerging from
twenty-seven years of civil war following its independence
after centuries of colonial rule. The war not only destroyed
the physical infrastructure: transportation routes,
agricultural land, and industry; but also kept Angolan human
capital development at the low colonial level with little
professional training or even basic schooling.


2. (C) The GRA is striving to use the resources generated
by extractive industries to strengthen and in many cases
develop institutions for the first time. They have achieved
some important milestones in the second half of 2006: the
final internal conflict in Cabinda was brought to a
negotiated resolution in August and almost 1,000,000 Angolans
registered to vote in the first month of the electoral
registration campaign, bringing Angola one important step
closer to its first elections since 1992. President dos
Santos and the leaders of opposition parties represented in
Congress also agreed on a recommendation for legislative
elections in 2008 and presidential elections in 2009. The
GRA is also increasing transparency, especially in the oil
sector. However, systems that ensure transparency,
accountability and inclusiveness still remain in their
nascent stages and GRA efforts to jump-start this process are
hindered by a lack of human capital to carry out the
necessary reforms as well as a political culture more focused
on personal survival rather than on the greater good. As we
increase our engagement, the GRA also seeks closer ties with
the USG and US investors. We hope that your visit will help
reinforce our desire to see a Trade and Investment Framework
Agreement (TIFA) concluded quickly. Your visit will also
focus on many of our USAID collaborations in public-private
partnerships, reinforcing the message that US businesses
bring not only excellent quality goods and services, but
equally important provide community oriented projects to help
improve the lives of Angolans. End summary.

Politics and Elections
--------------

3. (C) The first phase of voter registration ran from
November 15-December 15, 2006 and was highly successful,
registering almost one million eligible voters. While not
without glitches, these were noted and remedied, with
opposition party and NGO observers accompanying the process.
Voter registration began again on January 15, and will
continue through June 15, 2007. In late December, the
President convoked the Council of the Republic whose
membership includes civil society leaders and the presidents
of all opposition parties represented in Congress. The
Council recommended legislative elections in 2008 and
presidential elections in 2009 (Note: At its last meeting in
2004, the Council recommended elections no later than 2006
End Note.) We hope that your visit can help convince the
Angolans of the need to make this recommendation official and
part of a Council of Ministers approved timetable for
elections. Immediately thereafter, the government announced
that the 2008 date for legislative elections was due to the
post-registration procedures (posting and vetting lists,
legally-mandated waiting periods, etc). Regarding the 2009
date, many of our interlocutors evince skepticism that
presidential elections will occur before 2010, a year in
which Angola will host the African soccer championship and
hold the chairmanship of the AU. US-funded NGOs, such as
International Republican Institute (IRI),National Democratic
Institute (NDI),and Search for Common Ground, have been very
active at the provincial and municipal level in political
party strengthening, building elections capacity, and working
with conflict resolution, respectively. President dos Santos
has made no formal announcement whether he will run for
President when elections are held.


4. (SBU) A recent poll by IRI showed the vast majority of
Angolans support the government's economic performance and
plan to participate in elections. Poll results indicate a
clear electoral advantage and public support for the ruling
MPLA party, but also show possible areas of weakness on which
opposition parties could develop campaign strategies.
Opposition parties focused on results that seemed to fly in

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the face of popular perceptions, refusing to accept the
validity of key data indicating weak support (Luanda 31).


5. (C) In general, the opposition political parties have not
been able to articulate individual party identities and
platforms, other than to say that they are not the MPLA.
They are still learning how to hold the government
accountable for its promises and programs and often attempts
to do so are handled more astutely by the MPLA and backfire
on the opposition. NGOs have helped deliver the message that
elections need not end in violence, and we expect this
message to figure heavily into the GRA,s electoral civic
education campaign. However, all parties could be more vocal
in reassuring the population that the importance of the
election is in the institutionalization of democratic
processes and all will abide by the results of a free and
fair election. Large numbers of weapons remain throughout
the countryside. Through PM/WRA, we are supporting small
weapons destruction programs. Opposition parties also
recognize that they may lose significant sources of federal
funding post elections depending on the results as funding is
based on the number of seats a party holds in the Parliament.
UNITA, in particular, is concerned that a potential drop in
congressional representation will directly affect its party
coffers.

Human Rights Improvements but
GRA Challenged by a Lack of Capacity
--------------


6. (SBU) The government's human rights record showed
improvements in 2006 but problems remain in areas of the
overburdened judicial system; arbitrary arrests and
detention, lengthy pretrial detention, and a lack of due
process. Prisons are overcrowded with harsh conditions,
especially in the provinces. In the last year we have seen
fewer acts of violence by governmental security forces due to
internal investigations and a commitment at higher levels to
curb police brutality. However, private security forces have
become responsible for an increasing number of violent
actions. The Minister of the Interior pledged to develop
laws to regulate the private security forces. The GRA
appointed an Ombudsman for Human Rights, and after many
months, delay in implementing the legislation to
institutionalize the office, it has now begun to function. A
revision of the penal code is in draft which will include
regulations against domestic abuse. Following a high-profile
spousal murder case in December 2006, the GRA has announced a
new program of &Zero Tolerance8 for domestic abuse. As in
many sectors, government progress is challenged by the lack
of trained personnel, and computerization and data collection
capacity. The NGO movement is still nascent, but there are
some indigenous organizations tracking human rights abuses
and working with the GRA to train the national police on
human rights issues.


7. (SBU) USG-funded programs have helped train police through
the ILEA Gaborone facility and on specific issues such as
trafficking in persons and child rights though our
international organization partners in Angola. The USG, in
conjunction with the Government of Portugal, is carrying out
a project of court automation with the Ministry of Justice.
Angola,s participation in SADC and its regional programs has
also forced it to focus more extensively on issues such as
human rights, police training, trafficking, and child labor.
The press covers these issues occasionally, but especially
when tied to international conferences or training events.


8. (SBU) The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for
Peace and Reconciliation in Cabinda is also seen as a major
step for bringing peace to all of Angola and in bringing
about greater representation for the people of Cabinda. As
part of the agreement FLEC military combatants were
assimilated into the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA) with a
significant number of command positions at year's end. In
addition, Cabindans will be given designated numbers of vice
ministerial and other positions in the Angolan government.

US Assistance: Making a Difference
--------------

9. (SBU) While Angola shows signs of growth and development -
you,ll see many construction cranes on the Luanda skyline -
the country still has some of the lowest development
indicators in the world. Sixty-eight percent of the
population lives in poverty, 26 percent in abject poverty.
Life expectancy is forty-seven years, more than 30 percent
lower than the average for developing nations; infant
mortality and other measures of the quality of life are among
the worst in the world. A cholera outbreak, which claimed
almost 2000 lives across Angola in 2006 could resurface

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during the current rainy season, although most observers
predict that 2007 cholera outbreaks should be less severe
given measures the government has taken. A country with a
developed health infrastructure could have prevented the high
death rate during the epidemic. In general, institutional
capacity to treat diseases of all kinds is hindered by a lack
of capacity of trained medical professionals, to educate
young people, and deliver the range social services needed.
Further, attacking the conditions which allow the disease to
flourish - lack of potable water and sewage treatment - is a
long-term process.


10. (SBU) Nevertheless, many of the Western donors have
scaled back aid to Angola since the end of the war period.
The USG program has been growing steadily. Our flagship
program is the President,s Malaria initiative (PMI). The
Angolan government, in particular the Health Ministry, has
been closely involved in the program and collaboration with
other donors is strong. In the first year of implementation,
PMI mobilized the spraying of over 125,000 houses (reaching
over 500,000 Angolans) and the distribution of over 800,000
bednets.


11. (SBU) The USG is also highly visible in the fight against
HIV/AIDS. Angola presents a unique opportunity to combat the
spread of HIV/AIDS. According to CDC data, Angola has a
relatively low prevalence rate. It is generally agreed that
the low rate is due to the country,s isolation during the
civil war, but high rate of male circumcision could also be a
factor. Still, many of the factors conducive with a spike in
the rate are in place: the early age of sexual debut; the
common occurrence of multiple partners, and improved
transportation routes, which encourages greater interaction
with its neighbors. Already frontier provinces show higher
rates of prevalence than the rest of the country. The USG --
CDC, USAID, DOS and DOD -) is working closely with the
Angolan Ministry of Health and private partners to implement
the national plan against HIV-AIDS.


12. (SBU) Angola,s path to transformational development will
be a long and winding one unless transparent, accountable,
participatory and effective governance can be realized and a
broad swath of the population empowered economically. The
USG is putting into place a strong program to reinforce
Angolan efforts to further good governance in areas such as
supporting free and fair elections, decentralization and
civil society development. All USG activities also focus on
at least one of the following: improving the quality of
dialogue between government and civil society, promoting
transparency and accountability, and strengthening the
linkages among the municipal, provincial and national levels
of government.


13. (SBU) Under our small but robust economic growth programs
we have worked with Chevron to establish a bank catering to
micro and small enterprises that, two years after opening,
has already extended USD 20 million in loans. Our agriculture
development and finance program which began in late FY06 has
attracted support from both Chevron and Chiquita. Our work
with the Ministry of Finance has led the Ministry to ask the
USG to coordinate donor efforts. We have likewise
established a strong relationship with the Angolan Central
Bank, most recently co-sponsoring a highly successful
conference on monetary issues.


14. (SBU) Angola also remains one of the most heavily
land-mined countries in the world and USG assistance provides
nearly USD 6 million to support humanitarian landmine
clearance. We also support capacity building within the
Angolan National Demining Commission, in order that the
Angolans will one day be able to take over the major role
played by international NGOs in landmine clearance. We have
also contributed significantly to the efforts to repatriate
Angolans displaced by the civil war. The GRA has stepped up
its support and in early January began providing flight
support for the current campaign designed to repatriate 5,000
refugees from Zambia.


15. (SBU) USAID/Angola is a pacesetter for missions worldwide
when it comes to Global Development Alliances. In FY06 it
had partnerships valued at approximately USD 5 million with
Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Lazare Kaplan Intl, and Banco de
Fomento Angola, a Portuguese based bank. In addition, we
received in-kind contributions from Odebrecht(a Brazilian
construction company),Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Alcatel-Lucent, Sistec (a local firm) and Open Society
Institute (OSI) for the Junior Achievement Program. Beyond
its corporate partners, USAID has also formed partnerships
with the Dutch government and the OSI.


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Economic Front: Opportunities for US Businesses
-------------- --

16. (C) Angola is changing its policy towards the United
States. While some resentment occasionally surfaces at the
working level over our support of UNITA during the civil war,
the government has shown itself eager to embrace closer
economic and international political ties with the United
States. The dos Santos government is moving on some issues
of importance to us: it ratified the Cape Town convention and
Article 98, has paid its arrears to us, and is working in
fits and starts with the IMF and the World Bank on
transparency issues. It is also negotiating with the Paris
Club to repay all bilateral creditors. TAAG, the national
airline, took delivery of five Boeing jets in November, 2006
) the featured event in the government,s National Day
celebrations. Over the last six months, we have noted a
dramatic increase in the number of US companies visiting
Luanda to look at export opportunities presented by
infrastructure rebuilding, to explore establishing a local
presence, and to successfully conclude contracts.


17. (C) Angola,s oil production is expected to reach almost
2 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2007, up from
its current production of 1.4 million bpd (Note. Given the
increasing level of production, Angola agreed to join OPEC in
late 2006, and the GRA believes that production quotas it
hopes to receive soon will reflect this continued increase in
production. End Note) Despite its economic potential,
Angola remains one of the most difficult countries in the
world in which to conduct business (Angola ranked 142 of 163
in Transparency International's 2006 rating). It takes an
average of 124 days to start a business despite government
attempts to streamline the process. Costs remain high due to
the lack of infrastructure, corruption, high input costs, a
cumbersome regulatory environment, and a limited pool of
individuals with professional skills. The private banking
system is rapidly expanding and bank regulatory arrangements
are being improved, but credit remains difficult despite NGO
and GRA programs to encourage micro-financing, especially in
agriculture and for teachers and health workers.

Military to Military Cooperation
--------------


18. (C) During EUCOM D/Commander Ward's visit late in 2006,
the GRA expressed interest in strengthening military-to
military ties with the U.S. Gen Ward discussed the creation
of a joint working group to discuss our cooperation plans and
we hope to hold such meetings in the first quarter of
calendar year 2007. In regional terms, the military is large
(over 100,000) and well-financed. we are working to engage
the Angolans in peace-keeping through ACOTA, but recent
events surrounding the AU's request for Angolan assistance in
a Somalia peace-keeping force reinforce the cautious nature
of the GRA in projecting its troops beyond immediate borders.
On January 19, the GRA announced that it would not lend
troops to amy peace keeping operation, stating instead that
it would need troops to help develop domestic infrastructure
and programs (septel).


EFIRD