ANGOLA: POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000031

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KWMN AO
SUBJECT: ANGOLA: POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT AND
ELECTIONS

REF: 06 LUANDA 1298

Classified By: Ambassador Cynthia Efird for reasons 1.4 (b)(d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Angolans support the government's economic
performance and plan to participate in elections, according
to a recent International Republican Institute (IRI) poll.
Poll results indicate a clear electoral advantage and public
support for the ruling MPLA party, but also show possible
areas of weakness on which opposition parties could develop
campaign strategies. Opposition parties focused on results
that seemed to fly in the face of popular perceptions,
refusing to accept the validity of key data indicating weak
support. END SUMMARY


2. (U) IRI, in conjunction with the Angolan polling firm
Consulform, surveyed 3,678 citizens in 12 provinces from 29
June - 06 September 2006. Polling was conducted by personal
interviews in Portuguese and key native languages. Topics
included economic well-being, government performance,
elections, and political parties. Fifty percent of
respondents were between ages 18-29 and were not of voting
age in the 1992 elections. Twenty-nine percent of
respondents were employed by the government. Sixty percent
described themselves as comfortable or upper middle class and
19 percent completed high school; both statistics are well
above the national average. Complete survey results are
available at

http://www.iri.org/africa/angola/pdfs/2006-12 -06-Angolan-Poll.ppt.

ECONOMIC GROWTH GETS APPROVAL BUT ANGOLANS WANT TO VOTE
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3. (U) According to poll results, 73 percent of respondents
believe that the country's economic development is going well
and that their lives are going to improve. Fifty-nine
percent indicate that their personal economic situation is
"the same" or "more or less the same" since 2002. Sixty-four
percent rate either unemployment or poverty as the major
problem facing the country, yet 91 percent of respondents
stated that the government has done an excellent or good job
in addressing these problems. While 34 percent expect quick
resolution to economic problems, 64 percent believe problems
will only be resolved in the long term. Fifty-four percent
feel that immigration trends are bad or very bad.


4. (U) The poll showed that Angolans are upbeat about future
elections. While 79 percent plan to vote and 58 percent
believe elections will be very important for the country's
future, only 23 percent believe elections could improve
socio-economic conditions. Eighty-five percent believe that
some level of democracy exists in the country and 90 percent
think elections will be free and fair, but 53 percent of
those respondents believe there will still be "some" or
"major" problems with elections. Forty-five percent say they
are not members or sympathizers of any political party. Of
the 12 percent who say they do not plan to vote, 55 percent
report that "no party has convinced them" or that "no party
has a concrete or good program," 22 percent are afraid of
what could happen after elections, and four percent believe
that elections won't change anything. Only three percent of
all respondents fear that the elections may lead to violence.

NOTE: The majority of polling was completed before the voter
registration campaign was announced on August 30, 2006. END
NOTE.

CONTRADICTORY RESULTS CREATE CONTROVERSY
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5. (SBU) The electorate has some very strong opinions that
reflect opposition to current law or policy. An overwhelming
79 percent believe that provincial citizens should elect
their own governor, rather than the current practice of
nomination by the President. Sixty percent want concurrent
presidential and legislative elections, which flies in the
face of the recent Conselho da Republica recommendation to
hold separate elections (see reftel).


6. (C) Poll results listed the Police as the most trusted
institution to resolve problems of the population. This
contradiction of popular perception and the 2004 IRI poll,
where police were the least-trusted institution, led to
questions on poll methodology. The response might be
understandable if security had been polled as a pressing
concern, but only three percent noted crime or violence as a
major problem. Opposition parties seized this and other
specific results in order to question the poll's overall
validity. While conceding that the poll did contain valuable
information, UNITA spokesperson Adalberto Costa Junior
specifically cited this data in questioning the validity of

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poll results and the impartiality of respondents in a
conversation with P/E chief.

OPPOSITION PARTIES FACE UPHILL BATTLE
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7. (C) In data not publicly released, an overwhelming
majority of respondents indicated they would vote for the
MPLA in legislative elections. IRI reported that UNITA and
other major opposition parties did not directly challenge
them on poll results, but did encourage them to do additional
polling. In a private meeting with IRI, UNITA President
Isaias Samakuva "didn't bat an eye" when told of his party's
poor showing. Adalberto Costa Jr. also told P/E chief that
UNITA has been doing its own polling, with dramatically
different results. IRI's meeting with nine small opposition
parties was far more contentious, with some attendees openly
questioning the poll's validity and methodology. The MPLA
did not reply to IRI's request for a meeting, but was given a
copy of the presentation.


8. (SBU) Opposition parties are clearly facing a challenge.
Forty-eight percent of respondents indicate their preference
for incumbents over challengers. Fifty-seven percent receive
election information from the media and a majority of
respondents listed TV and radio as their primary news
sources. Only 12 percent claim to get information from their
party. Given the lack of independent Angolan TV stations and
the monopoly of government radio outside the capital, the
opposition will be challenged to spread its election message
outside of Luanda. Creating platforms around key issues such
as unemployment and poverty and engaging the 56 percent who
claim to have little to no interest in politics, people
without party affiliation, and those who say that no party
has convinced them to vote may become campaign strategies for
opposition parties. Of note, 51 percent of respondents said
they would vote for a female candidate, though few parties
have high level female representation.

LOST IN THE SHUFFLE
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9. (C) COMMENT: The release of the poll during the MPLA's
50th anniversary congress and immediately prior to end of
year festivities doomed it to little or no media coverage.
Moreover, the press conference called to launch the poll
results was organized at the last minute and featured
representatives from opposition parties, but not the MPLA.
Tensions between IRI and Consulform over the interpretation
of poll results resulted in Consulform's absence from the
press conference, which was noted and questioned by
participants. The press conference was ill-served by the
poor translation of the speaker's remarks and audience
questions. Spinning out of the control of IRI organizers,
attention focused on specific questions such as support for
the police, rather than key issues such as strong voter
support for elections.


10. (C) Opposition parties have understandably tried to shift
attention away from evidence of their weak showing, possibly
in hopes of discrediting the poll rather than shouldering the
burden of adopting new campaign strategies and techniques and
facing the fact that they have a long road ahead of them.
Even the MPLA, clearly favored by the results, has resisted
touting the poll as a result of the controversy. IRI is now
reassessing its roll-out strategy of the poll at the
provincial level to avoid similar problems. END COMMENT
EFIRD