U.S. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN'S

S E C R E T LONDON 004454

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017
TAGS: KNNP MNUC IR PARM UK
SUBJECT: U.S. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN'S
NUCLEAR PROGRAM: UK RESPONSE

REF: STATE 162558

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Richard LeBaron; reason 1.4 (b,
d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: Per instructions reftel, DCM delivered
reftel points December 3 to Permanent Under Secretary of
State Peter Ricketts. Ricketts, who was accompanied by FCO's
Iran Coordinator Antony Phillipson, appeared not to have been
previously aware of the NIE or its contents. Nevertheless,
Ricketts reacted immediately: his primary concern was that
the public presentation by the U.S. and others not detract
from our collective ability to generate pressure on the
regime via a third UNSC resolution and via EU action on
sanctions. We understand a number of direct contacts
between US and UK officials either took place or were planned
following the meeting with Ricketts. End Summary.

Ricketts: Presentation is Key
--------------


2. (S/NF) Ricketts told DCM the NIE report shows there was
indeed cause for concern on Iran,s military nuclear program.
Ricketts argued that, although Iran may have previously
walked away from the weaponization portion of its nuclear
push, the NIE,s conclusions further demonstrate the
continuing need for Western concern over Iran,s long-term
nuclear intentions, as well as the importance and potency of
unified international diplomacy. Ricketts repeatedly
stressed the "critical importance of the presentation" of the
NIE,s conclusions.

Phillipson: NIE Findings Are Narrow
--------------


3. (S/NF) Phillipson, shortly before the Ricketts meeting
and before Phillipson had seen the NIE text, commented that
the public and Western partners must not allow the NIE to be
seen as detracting in any way from current international
diplomatic efforts on Iran, as any diplomatic momentum lost
would be very hard to recover. Phillipson, both during DCM's
call on Ricketts and during corridor conversation with London
IW (Poloff) afterwards, stressed what he called a key
distinction between Iran's ultimate intentions on its nuclear
program, to which he argued the report does not speak, and
Iran's technical capabilities, especially as to
weaponization, which he said was the main focus of the NIE.


4. (S/NF) Comment: While Embassy believes Phillipson's
analysis may be narrower than that presented by the NIE, it
is a point of view Washington interlocutors may hear again
from HMG on the NIE's implications. Rickett's stated concern
with public "presentation" continues themes the UK
continuously makes to USG bilaterally on the central
importance in HMG's view of how Western public unity and
confidence on sanctions and the two-track process affects
both regime psychology, on which FCO feels itself especially
expert, as well as on the financial markets which are the
main target of multilateral and unilateral financial steps to
build pressure on Tehran. End comment.


5. (S/NF) Ricketts said he would coordinate with Number 10
and the Foreign Secretary; alert Downing Street and Foreign
Minister. As DCM left the FCO, Phillipson was preparing for
a conference call with P staff and E-3 counterparts, and for
any more senior-level calls which may be initiated December 4
in Washington.

UK Press Points
--------------


6. (SBU) HMG's overnight press guidance on the NIE was: "We
note the report and the US Government's reaction to it. We
will discus it with US Government analysts in more detail in
coming days. But the report's conclusions justify the action
already taken by the international community to get to the
bottom of Iran's nuclear programme and to increase pressure
on the regime to stop its enrichment and reprocessing
activities." FCO on December 4 told Embassy their expanded
press guidelines will cover the following points:

-- We are studying the report, which shows there was
something to be concerned about;


-- We are still concerned and should be until Iran comes
clean;

-- Now would be the worst time to relax; people should not be
distracted by dates;

-- it is still vital to stop the Iranians now, as it will
only get harder down the line."


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