SLOVENIA'S PRESIDENT SITES IRRESPONSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LJUBLJANA 000090

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SI YI SR
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA'S PRESIDENT SITES IRRESPONSIBLE
GOVERNMENTS AS ROOT OF PROBLEMS

REF: A) LJBULJANA 51 B) LJUBLJANA 80

Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Since suffering from cancer, and, so far,
beating it, Slovenia's president Janez Drnovsek has adopted a
simplified and more spiritual approach to life, which is
apparent in his public life as well as in his personal
demeanor. In the last two years, he has written three top
ten best sellers with titles such as "Thoughts on Life" and
"The Essence of the World." Ever the political animal,
however, he has not lost his edge, and he is not one to be
pushed around by the current ruling coalition. Taking the
moral high ground in a recent lunch with COM, Drnovsek said
he would not sacrifice his independence, nor that of
Slovenia's institutions, by conferring with the parliament or
government on suitable appointees for the Central Bank.
Drnovsek, not surprisingly, had a liberal dose of criticism
for the current Government of Slovenia (GOS) accusing it of
being more interested in gathering and retaining power than
in governing justly. He doubted the GOS had a solid plan for
its turn at the EU Presidency and questioned the abilities of
many ministers to handle their EU portfolios - including the
Foreign Minister. The President commented on his old
political party, Liberal Democracy (LDS),saying though it
might shrink some more, it would not disappear.
Nevertheless, he thought a space had been created for a truly
centrist party to develop. He was coy about predicting who
might lead this new party, but he was relatively confident it
would be in a position to do well by parliamentary elections
in autumn 2008. Drnovsek also demurred on the question of
whether he would run for president again in autumn 2007,
saying that as of now, the answer is no, thus leaving room
for a change of heart.


2. (C) Summary Continued. In the same lunch Drnovsek
commented on several high profile issues in which he has
played or wanted to play a role including: Darfur, Kosovo
(Serbia) and bilateral relations with Croatia. In each case,
he faulted "irresponsible" governments for playing on
nationalist emotions to manipulate situations for political
gain rather than making difficult decisions and doing what
was best for their citizens. End Summary.


3. (C) COM hosted Slovenia's President Janez Drnovsek and his
International Affairs Advisor Ivo Vajgl for lunch on February

12. Polecon Chief also attended. Since being rebuffed on his
forays into political issues (Kosovo and Darfur) and finding
frustratingly little traction on bilateral issues with
Croatia, Drnovsek has adopted a more spiritual approach to
his role as Slovenia's president. He has taken the moral
high ground in public discussions and on his personal website
where he signs off as "Janez D." Drnovsek skipped the World
Economic Forum in Davos this year, calling it "all talk with
no substance," and instead attended the conference on "Peace,
Nonviolence and Empowerment in the 21st century" in New
Delhi, India. His comment on India was that he hoped that it
would be able to retain its spiritual foundations in the face
of the rapid economic growth it was experiencing.

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Darfur
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4. (C) Drnovsek clearly still smarts from his experiences
trying to broker some sort of breakthrough between the
Sudanese government and various rebel factions in June 2006.
He could not help but point out that eight months later, the
situation in Darfur was not much better than when he had
invited JEM to Ljubljana for talks, suggesting that the
international community had failed as surely as he had.
Nevertheless, Drnovsek also recognized his own naivet at the
time, saying his old colleague from NAM days Al Bashir was an
irresponsible leader who did not want to do what was best for
his country and the rebel leaders were also "no angels" and
had their own political agenda. Drnovsek agreed, too, that
China, with its strong economic interests there, could and
should do more to ameliorate the situation in Sudan.

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Kosovo - Too Much Time Already Lost
--------------


5. (C) Turning to Kosovo, Drnovsek said that too much time
had already been lost and there should be no further delay in
giving Kosovo independence. After all, he asked
rhetorically, "what would the Serbs do with Kosovo now,

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they've (already) had it" and he added it is "another
government that does not take care of its own people."
Drnvosek was skeptical that any Serbian government would be
able to deal responsibly with Kosovo. He lamented the loss of
intellectuals he believes Serbia has suffered over the last
decade - leaving too much political space to nationalists and
their destructive rhetoric. Drnovsek also rejected the idea
that Kosovo independence would set a precedent for other
disputed territories. He added that he thought Russia's
decisions on Kosovo independence had more to do with its
relationship with the United States than any sense of
protection of Serbia.

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Relations with Croatia
--------------


6. (C) Drnovsek reserved some of his deepest criticisms for
the current governments and politicians of both Slovenia and
Croatia. He said the GOS was making a serious error in
judgment if it thought it could leverage Croatia's EU
membership to get something on the ongoing border issues.
First, he said, the EU will not appreciate this brinkmanship
and second, it would do serious and long-term damage to their
bilateral relationship. Drnovsek recalled that Italy had
used similar tactics with Slovenia over the treatment of
ethnic Italians, known as Optanti, at the end of WWII, which
had delayed Slovenia's entry by over a year. And,
unfortunately, suspicions about Italian motivations remain
today to the detriment of bilateral relations. He warned
that if Slovenia's politicians continued to "play with
emotions" they could find themselves holding a referendum on
Croatia's EU membership, which would be an absolute disaster.
Drnovsek cited what he views as the GOS's mishandling of the
relationship with Croatia as a major part of his disagreement
with the Jansa government, although he appeared to think that
Jansa himself had a pretty good grasp of the issues and the
need to fix them. He joked that perhaps he had been too
good a negotiator on the Drnovsek-Racan agreement, since the
Croatian government had agreed to things it apparently could
not sell publicly.


7. (C) Drnovsek was equally critical of the Croatian
government accusing it of being as irresponsible as the GOS
for allowing the animosity to grow and in using the media to
press domestic political advantage. He said Croatia was
relying too much on Germany to get into the EU and that it
was "not even trying" to negotiate the issues with Slovenia.


8. (C) Commenting on his canceled trip to Croatia (scheduled
for February 15),Drnovsek explained he had originally been
invited by President Mesic to go to Bjelovar to present his
latest book "The Essence of the World." Then, the press more
or less fabricated a meeting between them to discuss
bilateral issues. Drnovsek said he decided to cancel the
visit because while he had offered several ideas to Mesic
after their last meeting in November, Mesic had never
followed up. Drnovsek was not interested in another "empty"
meeting. Responding to COM's query if he thought there was a
way to solve this bilaterally, Drnovsek said that if Croatian
PM Sanader came up with a "serious" proposal, he was certain
Jansa would respond.

--------------
Central Bank Governor
--------------


9. (C) Turning to domestic issues, COM commented on press
reports that President Drnovsek's most recent nominee for
Bank of Slovenia (BOS) Governor, current Vice Governor,
Andrej Rant, was his final offer, and if parliament did not
confirm him, they should expect a crisis to ensue. Drnovsek
responded that his original nominee and current Governor
Mitja Gaspari was the obvious choice. He added that because
of the nature of the institution, it was more important to
have someone with the right professional qualifications
rather than acceptable political affiliations. Despite
parliament's rejection of Gaspari, Drnovsek said he did not
see the need to consult with parliament on his choice,
maintaining he "would not compromise (his) principles." He
added that he wanted to avoid a "war" with the government and
parliament and suggested he demonstrated his good will by
withdrawing his second choice, Joze Mencingar (Ref B).
Drnovsek said that he "listened to (PM Jansa) once" when he
rejected Mencingar, and Rant was qualified for the job
(implying he was done "listening").


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LDS or something new?
--------------


10. (C) COM reminded Drnovsek and Vajgl that they had given
strong hints more than a year ago that Vajgl might look for a
leadership role in the opposition Liberal Democracy Party
(LDS). Both laughed this off and engaged in a little verbal
ping-pong deciding who should be the one to comment on the
current state of LDS. On the very public troubles of his
former political party Drnovsek said he thought that the
party would continue to shrink, but that it would ultimately
survive, though as a minor political party. Drnovsek seemed
confident that LDS,s retreat from the center and the current
GOS's skewing to the right opened a space for a true centrist
party with strong social values and liberal economic
policies. When pressed as to whom might head this new party,
Drnovsek said he believed there would be some "old faces" but
mostly new faces. Neither Drnovsek nor Vajgl would say
anything more, other than that we could expect this party to
emerge in the next few months and that it would be in a good
position for the autumn 2008 elections. Commenting on other
political developments, Drnovsek said of the Slovene People's
Party (SLS) that "it could not survive just on Croatia as an
issue" suggesting it would not do well in the next elections.
He also thought Aljoz Peterle of New Slovenia (NSi) and
currently in the European Parliament, would be returning to
Slovenia, and if he did not become president, he would "be
looking for his political space." (Comment: Peterle has had
political disagreements with current NSi president and
Minister of Finance Andrej Bajuk, which suggest a possibility
that he could lead a new party in Slovenia. End Comment)

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The Presidency
--------------


11. (C) Slovenia's next major election is for President in
autumn 2007 (date as yet undetermined). Drnovsek, some time
ago, said publicly that he does not intend to run again. He
has also hinted that his decision to not run is not final,
thus leaving open the door to declare later this year. As of
now, however, he is not running. Commenting on other
potential contenders, Drnovsek echoed comments we have heard
from other politicians and expressed disdain for Social
Democrat Borut Pahor saying he had "no substance and no
program."

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Pessimism about Jansa Government
--------------


12. (C) Turning back to the work of the Jansa government and
his relationship with the prime minister, Drnovsek expressed
serious concerns about Jansa's approach to governing. Saying
that Jansa is "just after power" Drnovsek suggested the prime
minister should concentrate more on making friends not
enemies because there just is not enough talent in Slovenia
to clear all the old technocrats out of their jobs in order
to put in someone more politically attractive. Further,
Drnovsek expressed strong doubts about the GOS's ability to
successfully manage the EU Presidency. He said Slovenia did
not seem to have a strong program. Enlargement, he said, was
on everyone's agenda, the constitution was not going to be
solved by Slovenia, and as for intercultural dialogue,
Drnovsek wanted to know what this government knew about that
(clearly seeing himself as a more effective proponent on this
topic). Drnovsek was particularly critical of the very weak
Ministry of Agriculture which would have one of the most
demanding portfolios during the EU presidency. He thinks
Slovenia is "absolutely unprepared" to handle this complex
issue, the previous minister was a catastrophe, and he had no
indication that the newly nominated minister would be up to
the challenge.

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Comment
--------------


13. (C) Drnovsek, never physically robust, appeared thin but
less frail than he has over the last two years. He did seemed
definitely to be healthier, his color was good and he was in
a relatively upbeat mood. His sense of moral superiority was
strongly evident as he described the political problems
discussed over lunch as being due to the "irresponsibility"
of all the governments concerned. Drnovsek did not comment
on USG policies, even when prompted by COM on climate change

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or foreign direct investment. His silence was probably more
out of good manners than a lack of opinion, which he
expresses freely in the press. He had little positive to say
about PM Janez Jansa, and he was clearly irked by the lack of
weight his views and opinions apparently carry with this
government, which is the reason he gave for no longer meeting
regularly with the prime minister. Despite his protestations
of not wanting to start a "war" with the government or
parliament, Drnovsek also does not appear to be willing to
fade into the role of compliant and beloved elder statesman.
He still relishes power and authority as much as he did when
he was prime minister, but with so many political outlets
closed to him now, he seems to be recasting himself as the
moral voice of Slovenia. His three books and solid public
support will allow him to carve out this place in the
Slovenian polity. He must be very careful, however, not to
take it too far and find himself an object of ridicule.
Already, cartoons and commentary have appeared which indicate
this is a real risk.

ROBERTSON