SLOVENIA EAGER TO HEAR FROM DAS DICARLO ON BALKAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LJUBLJANA 000704

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR EUN SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA EAGER TO HEAR FROM DAS DICARLO ON BALKAN
ISSUES

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Classified By: CDA MCOLEMAN E.O. 12958, reason 1.4(b, d)

Summary
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1. (C) In a series of November 5 meetings with EUR DAS
Rosemary DiCarlo, senior MFA officials urged close
cooperation and sought U.S. views as to the way forward on
Balkan issues, which Slovenia sees as a priority issue for
its EU Presidency. The Slovenes stressed the importance of
speeding up the SAA process for Serbia before finalizing
Kosovo's status. They were likewise eager for progress on EU
enlargement for the other Balkan countries as well as pushing
for all thre aspirant countries to receive invitations at
next spring's NATO Summit. The Slovene concern about Russian
obstruction to progress in the Balkans figured throughout the
day.

FM Rupel disturbed by situation in the Balkans
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2. (C) FM Rupel told DAS Dicarlo that he had recently
returned from a disturbing visit to Belgrade. He found the
Serbians totally unwilling to budge on Kosovo and looking to
Russia as their political and economic partner. When Rupel
protested to Serbian officials that, "you can't leave Europe
and your European business relationships behind and just deal
with Russia," the response he got was, "just watch us."
Rupel asserted that Russia was a growing problem on a number
of fronts and was complicating resolution of regional
problems. He worried about developments in Bosnia, and urged
the U.S. to put pressure on Greece to find new approaches to
deal with the Macedonian name issue. On Kosovo, Rupel
underscored that the authorities there need to do a better
job making Serbian inhabitants feel at home. He noted for
example that Serb villages need to feel safe without the
protection of foreign troops. DAS DiCarlo discussed the
Troika's latest efforts to foster agreement between Serbia
and Kosovo, Russia's unhelpful role, discussions with the UN
on the legal basis for Kosovo independence, and a possible
timeline for the international community to handle the Kosovo
issue after December 10. She cautioned that the chances of a
breakthrough in the Troika deliberations are slim. Rupel
agreed, saying that Ischinger had told him there was only a
ten percent chance of finding a compromise. DiCarlo stressed
that we need close U.S.-EU cooperation in managing the Kosovo
issue and that we have to be ready to make decisions and move
forward in a timely manner.

MFA Senior Officials: Slovenia To Focus on Balkans During Its
EU Presidency
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3. (C) State Secretary Matjaz Sinkovec, who chaired a
November 5 meeting of senior directors with DAS DiCarlo,
reviewed the range of Balkan issues facing Slovenia and the
EU. He urged the U.S. to look at the whole region together
and to do as much as we could, terming it a "season for
carrots." Sinkovec advocated for tackling the Western
Balkans with a comprehensive strategy. He made two major
points: the EU should keep a symmetric approach - the values
of the whole region should be the same as euro-atlantic
values; and 2) the EU should remain flexible as it approached
each case. He noted that "the security of Europe depends on
security in the Balkans." Sinkovec and others stressed that
Slovenia would like to offer the countries of the Former
Republic of Yugoslavia and Albania the same chances to join
the trans-atlantic institutions as eastern European
countries. He stated that Slovenia would seek EU consensus
and unity. DAS DiCarlo assured him that our position on the
Balkans was the same as Slovenia's. She noted that U.S.
policy is to get the region moving on the trans-atlantic
path. Sinkovec asked to repeat these consultations in the
future.

Slovenes Eager for U.S.-EU Coordination on Kosovo
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4. (C) Roman Kirn, Director of the Americas Division,
explained that Slovenia has been focusing more and more on
the Kosovo problem, but it was only part of the overall
picture. Sinkovec stated that Slovenia was cautious about
real prospects from the Troika process. He said that the
U.S. and the EU should continue to urge Pristina to show
patience and restraint. He also suggested that Pristina
coordinate moves with the U.S. and EU to minimize negative
effects. Sinkovec acknowledged the need to encourage Serbia
to make progress on ICTY, but said that the EU should then

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offer Serbia the chance to sign an SAA. He added that this
should be done before Kosovo status issues are in their final
stages.


5. (C) Leon Marc, the Director for Southeastern Europe,
detailed the Foreign Minister's recent visit to Serbia,
Pristina and Macedonia. Marc contrasted Macedonia, which
seemed "desperate" to get into the EU and NATO, with the
attitude in Belgrade. According to Marc, in Serbia,
President Tadic and FM Jeremevic had stressed that a European
future for Serbia (and Tadic's own political future) depended
on Kosovo, and partially on an early signing of an SAA. The
FM had found Kostunica a "bit softer" but still very critical
of the fourteen points and unwilling to accept a factual, not
formal independence; Marc said that Tadic and Jeremevic might
be willing to accept such a factual independence. In
Pristina, the FM heard concerns from moderate Serbs about a
continuation of an international presence in Kosovo and
locally. Those moderates were anxious that local clans/mafia
could consolidate control over local government. DAS DiCarlo
shared our concern about growing radicalization in Serbia and
in Bosnia. Bogdan Benko, the Director General for European
Affairs and Bilateral Affairs, stressed the need to provide
strong support to OHR Laycak.


6. (C) Kirn stated that the main problem was not just the
lack of EU unity, but also Russia. He stressed that it would
be important for the Secretary General to provide the UN's
legal views to enable the EU to move, given the "solid threat
by Russia." DAS DiCarlo explained that we believed we had to
be prepared to move forward without a new UNSCR. She
reviewed our lawyers' opinion that UNSCR 1244 does not
preclude Kosovo declaring independence and third country
recognition. UNSCR 1244 would remain in effect and provide
the basis for an international presence - both civilian and
military; it would still provide a mandate for KFOR. She
walked through some scenarios for timing - the need for
discussion in New York after December 10, but warning that
waiting much past January could bring greater instability.
She noted that she expected the British and French would be
eager to share their views with the Slovenes.

Slovenia Wants EU to Keep Focused on Enlargement
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7. (C) A constant theme in the day's meetings with DAS
DiCarlo was Slovenia's strong desire to see real progress on
enlargement in both the EU and NATO. Benko said that
Slovenia was trying to convince its EU partners that
enlargement covers the Western Balkans and Turkey. He
worried that it was difficult to speak about enlargement
given the "enlargement fatigue." He noted, however, that
French policy had changed and that France was now more
willing to discuss the Western Balkans, especially Kosovo.
(He added that Slovenia consulted with France frequently to
coordinate activities since France will assume the EU
Presidency after Slovenia.) Kirn stressed the need for a
comprehensive strategy for the Balkans. He questioned how to
make it "visible and viable" to Europe. He laid out
Slovenia's desiderata/analysis: Croatia was doing well and
should have no problem entering NATO and the EU; Serbia
should sign an SAA as soon as possible; the EU should
encourage Bosnia Herzogovina also to sign an SAA; and the EU
should move Macedonia to the status of a candidate country.
He admitted that no one is totally prepared, but that this
was still the best course. Matej Marn, Deputy Political
Director and Director for EU Affairs, added that these were
the political achievements Slovenia hoped for during its EU
Presidency. Several interlocutors also hit on the theme of
making progress on the visa facilitation program.

Slovenia Hopes for 3 New NATO Members
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8. (C) State Secretary Sinkovec said all three aspirant
countries should be invited to join NATO at the next NATO
Summit. Darja Golez, from the Security Policy Division,
stressed three points important to Slovenia: 1) enlargement
for the three MEP countries; 2) the urgent need to adapt a
comprehensive strategy for the Western Balkans; and 3)
keeping the NATO door open. DAS DiCarlo stated our complete
agreement about the aspirant countries entering NATO. While
noting that Macedonia and Albania still need to make more
progress, it was doable with the right political will by
April. We too wanted to see the three aspirants in NATO as
soon as possible. She told the Slovenes that we would be
asking for their assistance in managing the name issue of
Macedonia and cautioned that Greece could block Macedonia's

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entry if there was not progress.

Future Consultations
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9. (C) The Slovene officials were very appreciative of DAS
DiCarlo's insights and stressed the importance of ongoing
contacts and coordination as Slovenia prepares to take up the
EU Presidency. Kirn suggested consulting again during the
November 15 U.S.-EU Task Force video conference and on the
margins of the December 6 NATO meeting.


10. DAS DiCarlo has cleared this cable.
COLEMAN