Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LJUBLJANA210
2007-04-02 15:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ljubljana
Cable title:  

SHIFTS IN SLOVENIA'S POLITICAL LEFT

Tags:  PGOV PINR ECON SI 
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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHLJ #0210/01 0921552
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021552Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5696
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000210 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SI
SUBJECT: SHIFTS IN SLOVENIA'S POLITICAL LEFT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000210

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SI
SUBJECT: SHIFTS IN SLOVENIA'S POLITICAL LEFT


1. (U) SUMMARY: The latest public opinion polls in Slovenia show
for the first time center left Social Democrats [SD] overtaking
Prime Minister Janez Jansa's center right Slovene Democratic Party
[SDS] by anywhere from one to six percent. This represents
tremendous progress by SD in the last two years. Confirming the
precipitous slide of the last six months, four more leading members
of formerly ruling Liberal Democracy [LDS] recently left the party.
This time they took the extra step of joining SD, thus making SD the
largest opposition group in the Slovenian parliament. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Since it lost elections in 2004, LDS, the leading political
party for 12 years [1992 - 2004] has never recovered its footing,
and it was only a matter of time before it began to collapse. LDS
has recently experienced a significant loss of public support with
the last poll showing only about eight percent support [in most of
2004 it still enjoyed more than 20 percent approval], its poorest
result ever.

--------------
LDS in Disarray
--------------


3. (U) LDS has attempted to reorganize, but to little avail. It
held a Congress in October 2005, and elected Jelko Kacin as the new
party president, replacing former Prime Minister Anton Rop whose
term had ended. Many members of the party disagreed with Kacin's
leadership, and the first major cracks in party unity appeared. The
first prominent member of LDS to leave was Janez Drnovsek who froze
his membership in 2002 when he became President of the Republic. In
2006 he relinquished his membership altogether. Gregor Golobic, a
powerful and longtime LDS party leader with close ties to Drnovsek,
followed closely behind.


4. (U) Due to the steady loss of public support for LDS, demands
from different factions within LDS for Kacin's resignation, and
former Minister of Economy Matej Lahovnik's resignation as
vice-president, the Council of LDS called for another party Congress
to discuss the new program and possible changes in leadership.
Kacin and Zdenka Cerar, another vice-president of the party, called
for a vote of confidence on their leadership at the Congress held in
January 2007. Both received the needed support to hold on to their
positions, resulting in what has become a flood of high profile

party resignations.

--------------
Fleeing a Sinking Ship
--------------


5. (U) In late February, Matej Lahovnik who had left LDS just
before the January Congress, established an independent deputy group
within the Parliament, and five deputies and former members of LDS
joined him. On March 9, Lahovnik and his colleagues from the
independent deputy group established an association known as "ZARES"
[meaning "for real"] and expressed the expectation that ZARES would
grow into a full fledged party in time to participate in the 2008
parliamentary elections. On March 11 Gregor Golobic and Bogdan
Biscak [both former secretaries general of LDS] joined them as well.



6. (U) On March 19 Darja Lavtizar Bebler, Marko Pavliha [vice
president of the Parliament], Anton Rop [former president of LDS and
Prime Minister] and Milan Cvikl resigned their membership in LDS and
two days later joined Borut Pahor's SD and its deputy group in the
Parliament. Thus, SD became the largest opposition deputy group
with 14 seats. LDS still retains 13 seats, for the time being.


--------------
New Alignments for 2008
--------------


7. (U) With the long expected collapse of LDS well underway, the
political left has entered a period of reconstruction. A similar
upheaval on the right in 2000 resulted in the fracturing of the
leading parties - Slovene People's Party (SLS) and Slovene Christian
Democrats (SKD) - which, after uniting briefly disintegrated
rapidly. A much weaker SLS and an entirely new and much less
influential New Slovenia (NSi) emerged and have played only minor
roles in ensuing national governments. Meanwhile, Prime Minister
Janez Jansa's Slovene Democrats (SDS) continued to strengthen and in
2004 won a majority in the parliament, bringing the center right to
full power for the first time since independence. Looking at the
current alignment of parties on the left, LDS's disintegration is
likely to end with the emergence of a much weaker LDS and a new
party established by the newer generation of LDS deputies who
recently quit the party. It is not yet clear what level of support
Lahovnik and his colleagues might enjoy, but it is possible they
could find themselves ahead of LDS in the polls. In the meantime,
Borut Pahor's SD continues to grow in popularity - bringing it to

LJUBLJANA 00000210 002 OF 002


levels of approval it has not previously enjoyed.


8. (SBU) Comment. It will be difficult to predict how well the left
will do in 2008 parliamentary elections before we know who will run
for president in late 2007. It is widely believed that should Borut
Pahor run for President, as he has indicated in the past he would
like to do, he has a good chance of winning. Without Pahor on the
campaign trail, SD's chances of significant gains in 2008 elections
are greatly reduced. Pahor has indicated to COM in the past that if
his party thought it could do very well in 2008 and asked him to
forego running for president, he would. All signs point to SD doing
well in 2008, to the extent that there is even some chatter of a
"grand coalition" with SDS. Another important deciding factor for
Pahor will likely be if current President Drnovsek chooses to run
again for president, and we may not know that until shortly before
the official campaign kicks off. Drnovsek, despite international
political blunders, is still widely popular in Slovenia, and
conventional wisdom says he would win if he chose to run again.


9. (SBU) Though we have yet to see a comprehensive explanation of
ideals and goals from Matej Lahovnik and his ZARES movement, the
fact that it has attracted some of LDS's best technocrats could
indicate it would take a more pragmatic approach to politics. If it
can form a coherent party in time for 2008 elections and cross the
4% threshold to enter parliament, it might provide an attractive
option for a larger party looking for a junior partner. End
Comment.