FORMER GOVERNOR BUSH MEETS PORTUGUESE PM, PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV XA XF PO
SUBJECT: FORMER GOVERNOR BUSH MEETS PORTUGUESE PM, PRESIDENT

Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings with former Governor of
Florida Jeb Bush, accompanied by Ambassador Hoffman, both
President Cavaco Silva and Prime Minister Socrates stressed
that the U.S.-Portugal relationship transcends party
politics, asserting that changes in Portugal,s government do
not affect Portugal's foreign policy. Socrates noted that he
would use Portugal's upcoming EU presidency to strengthen the
trans-Atlantic relationship and to use that relationship to
move the Middle East peace process forward. President Cavaco
Silva encouraged greater trilateral cooperation in Lusophone
Africa, where he said Portugal and the U.S. are natural
partners. End summary.


2. (U) Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush visited Portugal
February 28 to March 4 to participate in a U.S.
Embassy-sponsored Innovation in Education Conference. On
March 2, in addition to the conference, Governor Bush shared
his views on the U.S. presidential campaign in an extensive
television interview with one of Portugal,s most respected
political commentators, Nuno Rogeiro, and met separately with
President Cavaco Silva and Prime Minister Socrates at their
request.

President Cavaco Silva
--------------


3. (U) President Cavaco Silva greeted Governor Bush warmly,
noting that he enjoyed a long relationship with the
Governor's father, President George H.W. Bush. Although
Cavaco Silva met the former President professionally during
Cavaco Silva's time as Prime Minister, they developed a close
friendship which they maintained after each of them had left
public office. (Note: President George H.W. Bush led a
White House delegation to Cavaco Silva's inauguration in

2006. End note.)


4. (U) Cavaco Silva stated that Portugal understood the
trans-Atlantic relationship better than most of her European
allies. Regardless of which party is in power, relations
with the U.S. are a fundamental pillar of Portugal's foreign
policy. Cavaco Silva noted that he had made this point
directly to Presidents Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, and Clinton,
during Cavaco Silva's time as Prime Minister (from 1985-95).
Cavaco Silva noted that, although his roots are in the
right-of-center Social Democratic Party, he and current Prime
Minister Socrates (from the Socialist Party) are in complete
agreement on this point.


5. (C) In particular, the President stressed the role of the
Azores in the Portugal-U.S. relationship. Cavaco Silva's
government, he recalled, negotiated the 1995 Agreement on
Cooperation and Defense, which codified the Portugal-U.S.
defense relationship and USG access to Lajes Air Base in the
Azores. Cavaco Silva opined that the Portugal-U.S.
relationship was so consistently strong because, unlike the
Spanish, Portuguese are steadfast friends and have a
generally positive view of the U.S.


6. (U) Cavaco Silva claimed that Portugal retains an
influence in the world far greater than would be indicated by
its size. He pointed out that Portuguese is widely spoken --
it is the official language in Macau, three Indian states,
and East Timor in Asia, as well as five African states and
Brazil.


7. (C) Turning to Africa, the Portuguese President said one
of the continent's fastest growing economies was Mozambique,
a Lusophone ally, where Cavaco Silva had spent two years
during the colonial war. Angola, he added, was expected to
overtake Nigeria in oil production next year. Warming to the
topic, Cavaco Silva suggested that the U.S. and Portugal
cooperate on institution-building and economic development
projects in Lusophone Africa. He added that two of the
largest Portuguese expatriate communities in the world are in
Venezuela, where President Chavez's recent actions were
troubling, and South Africa, where HIV/AIDS is a critical
issue.


8. (C) Noting that Governor Bush was in Portugal primarily to
address a conference on education innovation, Cavaco Silva
explained that one of his main areas of focus as President is
developing the country's human capital. The education system
in Portugal, he said, had suffered from a lack of investment
and creative management. Portugal expected to receive
Structural Funds from the European Union (EU) equal to 2.5
percent of GDP between 2007 and 2013. It would use those
resources primarily to develop a more flexible and
competitive primary and secondary educational system similar
to the system introduced by Governor Bush in Florida. The
President reported that those who had participated in the
mission led by Ambassador Hoffman to Florida in September

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2006 had cited their meeting with Governor Bush as a
highlight of their visit, and had returned to Portugal full
of ideas for reform. (Note: The education innovation
conference was an outcome of that visit. End note.)

PM Socrates
--------------


9. (U) Like President Cavaco Silva, Prime Minister Socrates
drew parallels between Portugal and Florida, particularly in
the areas of tourism, high tech industries, and education.
He noted that, as in Florida, Portugal's tourism industry was
quite mature. Investment in high-quality projects, he noted,
allowed Portugal to develop its infrastructure while
maintaining standards and protecting the environment. This
sector also represented the highest level of entrepreneurship
in Portugal. The island of Madeira, he noted, was an
important test case. 20 years ago it was one of the poorest
regions in Portugal; today it is one of the richest, with
excellent infrastructure and a skilled workforce.


10. (U) On education, Socrates noted that, earlier that day,
his government had signed an agreement with the University of
Texas at Austin intended to foster academic exchanges and
collaborative research. This was the third such agreement
negotiated by the Socrates government, joining similar
arrangements with MIT and Carnegie-Mellon. Such
collaboration at the university level, Socrates opined, is
essential to raising education standards and deepening the
trans-Atlantic relationship.


11. (C) Socrates described the relationship with the United
States as a fundamental pillar of Portugal,s foreign policy,
together with the European Union and the Lusophone world.
Socrates echoed President Cavaco Silva in asserting that
Portugal's two principal political parties shared a
commitment to a strong trans-Atlantic relationship, which
ensured consistency in the country's foreign policy from one
government to the next.


12. (C) The Prime Minister stated that Europe and the United
States share strategic interests. The most important aim, he
suggested, must be to work more closely together,
particularly regarding our relationships with the Arab world.
Europe, he posited, has a special responsibility in the
Middle East and must do more in cooperation with the U.S.
Socrates stated that he will dedicate Portugal's upcoming EU
presidency to that end. Socrates noted that although he had
not supported military action in Iraq, his government will
maintain its commitment to the NATO Training Mission there as
well as its broader contributions to NATO and to our
bilateral agreements.


13. (C) Turning to domestic issues, Socrates noted that his
greatest success thus far has been the reform of the social
security system. Today,s longer lifespans and wealthier
economy mean that pension payments are bankrupting the state.
Pension payments have risen ten percent annually over the
last 20 years. Shortly after taking office, Socrates raised
the retirement age of public sector workers to 65 to match
that of the private sector. The reforms also simplified the
indexing of pensions to maintain purchasing power rather than
outpace inflation. The Bank of Portugal released a study
showing that the new system will be fiscally sustainable for
the next 30 years.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Both Cavaco Silva and Socrates asked to meet with
former Governor Bush, and they greeted him warmly. Although
we heard nothing new, the President and Prime Minister
clearly wanted to underscore the strong transatlanticist
orientation of Portugal's foreign policy, and to make it
clear that Portugal would continue to fulfill its NATO
commitments, despite significant budget constraints.

Hoffman