PORTUGAL RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF NOVEMBER 19-20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002929

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: IR IS IZ LE SY PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF NOVEMBER 19-20
GAERC

REF: SECSTATE 156474

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) In advance of the November 19 GAERC, Deputy EU
Correspondent Ana Filomena Rocha offered Portugal's views on
reftel points, including the upcoming summit with Africa,
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, Burma, and
Pakistan. She further mentioned that the GAERC plans to
raise the political developments in Georgia at the meeting.


2. (SBU) EU-AFRICA SUMMIT (And China, Egypt Issues): Rocha
reported that the GOP sent out invitations to the summit this
week and is awaiting confirmations from participating
nations. Two main documents for the summit -- the Joint
EU-Africa Strategy and the Action Plan -- were finalized in
Accra, but Ireland and Poland have raised a concern about the
chapter on health and sexual reproduction. She said the two
nations are concerned that the current language could be
misinterpreted and viewed as giving EU support to abortion
programs in Africa. Nevertheless, she noted that any attempt
to reopen the package at this point could lead to another
negotiation with Egypt over reparations for national
patrimony. She predicted that Portugal would be able to
persuade Ireland and Poland to drop the issue rather than
reopen the package. Regarding China, Rocha explained that
the trio presidencies are attempting to engage China in a
discussion on sustainable development and human rights
concerns with both the EU and Africa at the table.


3. (C) KOSOVO: Given the absence of a EU consensus, Rocha
speculated that individual Member States would eventually
decide individually whether to recognize an unilateral
declaration of independence. Portugal is leaning towards
recognition, she confided, but would wait until other major
countries (the UK, France, and Germany) made the move first.
(See comment in para 11.)


4. (C) BOSNIA: In keeping with the U.S. perspective, the
GAERC will be used both to praise High Representative Lajack
for his Bonn Powers efforts and criticize Dodik for his
confrontational approach. Rocha reported wide support for
the renewal of the EUFOR mission.


5. (SBU) IRAN: Rocha had not yet seen the IAEA Director
General's report, but anticipated that the EU would be ready
to strengthen sanctions should the IAEA findings be anything
but positive.


6. (U) IRAQ: Foreign Minister Zebari will attend the GAERC
lunch and will brief the ministers on the current security
situation in Iraq. Rocha mentioned that the EU remains
divided between the countries that support increased EU
engagement and those reluctant to do so because of the
security situation in Iraq. She did not anticipate any
concrete decisions from this discussion.


7. (C) ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE: The EU views the Annapolis
meeting as the beginning of a new chapter. She said Solana
has plans to present new views at the GAERC. He may offer
some new indications of the EU's strategy for the Annapolis
meeting.


8. (U) BURMA: According to Rocha, the ministers will approve
previously agreed upon conclusions on Burma but do not plan
to hold any discussion.

9. (U) PAKISTAN: The EU agrees that the situation in Pakistan
is of increasing concern, as outlined in the EU's
declaration. Despite the EU's unease, it has little
influence over Pakistan's actions, Rocha stated.


10. (C) GEORGIA: As an addition to the agenda, the EU will
probably praise Georgia for lifting the state of emergency
and for scheduling elections in January but will also
acknowledge mistakes made by the Georgian government. Rocha
stressed that the meeting will not be a forum to "Russia

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bash," despite the inclination of some Member States to do
so. Lithuania has requested a discussion of an EU agreement
on visa facilitation for the Georgians along the lines of the
agreement with Russia, but Rocha claimed that Portugal views
this process as the responsibility of the EU Commission
rather an appropriate topic for the GAERC.


11. (C) COMMENT: Rocha responded to reftel points with her
usual candor and offered a mix of both official positions and
personal opinions, especially on Kosovo and Bosnia. Once
again, on Kosovo, Rocha's comments differed from what other
GOP interlocutors have said. While the PM's Diplomatic
Advisor allowed privately that the final official EU position
could be that individual states recognize unilateral
independence if they want to, this is the first time anyone
in the Portuguese government has stated explicitly that
Portugal would be in the vanguard of Member states granting
recognition. End comment.
Ballard