PORTUGAL VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE SEPTEMBER 7-8

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002303

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2017
TAGS: YI RS PGOV PREL PO EUN
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE SEPTEMBER 7-8
INFORMAL FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING (GYMNICH)

REF: A. LISBON 2200


B. LISBON 2046

C. SECSTATE 123576

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Political Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Portuguese Deputy EU Correspondent Ana Filomena Rocha
offered Portugal's views on reftel U.S. policy interests
regarding Kosovo, Russia, Georgia, China, India, and the
Middle East. She also mentioned that the ministers will take
up a discussion on Lebanon and Burma during their two days of
meetings.


2. (C) Kosovo: In stark contrast to what Portuguese Special
Envoy to the Balkens Tanger Correa and Political Director
Bramao Ramos told us (Refs A and B),Rocha claimed that EU
member states would not be able to deploy an ESDP mission to
Kosovo without a UN resolution (see comment). She asked
what the U.S. envisioned as the legal basis to allow the
process to move forward in the absence of a UN resolution and
agreed that the status quo was not sustainable. She remarked
that it was known the Serb and Kosovar positions were
completely at odds and so she did not see how an accord
between the two sides could be reached. Rocha speculated
that the ministers would focus at the Gymnich on how to
proceed after the December 10 deadline. She noted that there
is no consensus within the EU on how to respond if Kosovo
unilaterally declares independence.


3. (C) Russia: Rocha concurred that the upcoming Duma
elections would not meet international standards as defined
by the West but then cautioned that Russia is a new democracy
and should not be held to the same standards as more
established democracies. She remarked that the EU was not
particularly keen to see a large OSCE observer mission before
the Duma elections because much of the election rigging would
be complete long before observers arrived. Moreover Rocha
underscored her concern that several EU members, particularly
the UK, Poland, and some Baltic states, were pushing to take
a hard line with Russia on "minor bilateral issues" and were
thus wasting EU influence. She stressed that the
international community needed Russia to resolve issues like
Kosovo, the frozen conflicts, and Iran, and therefore should
not antagonize on less important things.


4. (C) The Middle East: Rocha predicted that the discussion
of Iran's nuclear program would be part of a broader Middle
East overview. She said ministers would probably discuss the
way forward on the Middle East Peace Process, troubling signs
about instability in the Siniora government, and the status
of Iraqi refugees in Syria. Rocha speculated that the
ministers would need to come up with strategies for how to
shore up the Abbas government, and how to respond to the
Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild infrastructure and public
projects in south Lebanon. Rocha reiterated her personal
doubts about Tony Blair's ability to play a useful role in
the Peace Process, given Palestinian skepticism regarding his
impartiality.


5. (C) Georgia: Lithuania and Estonia requested that Portugal
add Georgia to the agenda, according to Rocha. She stated
that Portugal has no interest in taking sides on the missile
incident in Georgia until the OSCE reviews all of the facts.
After noting her concerns about the objectivity of the OSCE
review panel, she confided her personal suspicions that the
missile incident fell "conveniently" on the eve of a Joint
Control Commission (JCC) in a possible Georgian attempt to
sway the process. The EU has no interest in further
inflaming the issue but will discuss it at the Gymnich.


6. (SBU) China: Portugal wants to use this discussion to work
out two key issues in advance of the EU-China summit:
economic market compliance and the embargo on arms sales.
Rocha claimed that the China will either comply or fail to
comply with the EU standards but that it was important to
avoid poisoning negotiations. Regarding the EU arms embargo,
she reported that about 24 nations favored lifting sanctions
and that the UK and Sweden were the main holdouts. As EU
President, Portugal will remain neutral on this issue but
believes that China has made progress on the human rights
front and has moved past the issues that initially triggered
the sanctions. Rocha further stated that the Gymnich
discussions would raise China's emerging role in Africa -- an
issue of particular interest to the Portuguese presidency.



7. (C) India: The EU-India Summit is likely to focus on

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economic and commercial engagement rather than political
issues such as Burma, Nepal, Afghanistan, or nuclear weapons.
Unlike Japan and China, the EU does not have special working
groups with India to engage in detailed discussions. Rocha
remarked that India had reluctantly agreed to include
political issues on the summit agenda.


8. (C) Additional Agenda Items: Portugal has added Burma to
the agenda under "other business" in response to a UK
request. Rocha stressed that the discussion would likely
rehash the traditional concerns about the poor human rights
situation but would probably not advance much beyond that.
She also mentioned that the ministers will pronounce on the
intergovernmental meeting from September 5.


9. (C) EU-Africa Summit: Rocha commented that the UK sought
to link the possibility of Mugabe attending the Summit with
the broader discussion of holding the meeting in December.
She asserted that the issue had been discussed at length and
that Portugal stood by the position that Zimbabwe must be
invited as an African nation. "The EU sanctions have failed.
Period," stated Rocha, "and African nations only close ranks
around Mugabe if he is attacked." She added that Mugabe is a
hero to Africans, who view any attempt by the EU to restrict
who represents Zimbabwe at the Summit as evidence of
neo-colonialist attitude. Nevertheless, the ministers are
expected to discuss the invitation again. When Poloff raised
the issue of the September 3 Ferraro-Waldner statement
proposing that Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Mumbengegwi
attend, Rocha said she doubted that the UK or the Netherlands
would agree with that proposal. (Note: British interlocutors
have, in fact, told the GOP that they would accept "anyone
but Mugabe," including the FM. Also, her comment that,
"Sanctions have failed," is nowhere to be found in any GOP
policy. End note.)


10. (C) Comment: As usual, in addition to GOP policy
viewpoints, Rocha offered personal opinions, which do not
necessarily reflective of GOP thinking. At this meeting,
Rocha was less guarded than usual as she was pressed to
depart for the Gymnich meeting. On Kosovo in particular,
Rocha's comments completely contradicted high-level MFA
statements that the GOP was looking for ways that 1244 could
allow for an ESDP mission. Rocha's apparent lack of
familiarity with the Foreign Minister's current efforts
caught Post by surprise, but she has been wrong on Kosovo
policy reporting before. To her credit, most of her comments
on internal EU thinking on other issues such as passing
sanctions against Iran and human rights issues have been on
target. Post does believe her comments on the Russia-Georgia
incident are reflective of Portuguese thinking, though no
other official is willing to offer an opinion before the OSCE
report is complete. End comment.
Hoffman