Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LISBON2046
2007-08-09 06:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lisbon
Cable title:  

PORTUGAL ON KOSOVO NEXT STEPS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KV UNYI EU PO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5478
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHLI #2046/01 2210634
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 090634Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6122
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0036
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 0037
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002046 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV UNYI EU PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON KOSOVO NEXT STEPS

REF: A) STATE 109526 B) LISBON 1974 C)

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. David Ballard for reasons 1.4 (B)
and (D).

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002046

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KV UNYI EU PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON KOSOVO NEXT STEPS

REF: A) STATE 109526 B) LISBON 1974 C)

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. David Ballard for reasons 1.4 (B)
and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Portugal's MFA political director Vasco Bramao Ramos
acknowledged to Charge on August 8 that the 120-day period of
additional negotiations on Kosovo was unlikely to produce a
breakthrough. He said there is a growing realization within
the EU that Kosovo will declare independence shortly after
December 10, and he is working with his EU counterparts to
find a legal basis, in the absence of a UN Security Council
Resolution, for individual member states to recognize Kosovo
and to deploy a crucial ESDP rule of law mission. He
clarified that the "extra time" needed beyond the 120-day
period was not for additional negotiations but, rather, to
permit the EU to manage its response to Kosovo's expected
declaration of independence. The key meeting for the EU in
that regard -- when Portugal hopes to secure consensus of
foreign ministers on the way forward -- will be the General
Affairs and External Relations Council in November. Portugal
has delivered blunt messages to Serbian and Russian leaders
that Kosovo independence is inevitable and that Belgrade and
Moscow will have to live with it. Foreign Minister Amado
intends to reiterate that message in a visit to the region,
perhaps in late August. End Summary.


2. (C) CDA, accompanied by Poleconcouns, delivered ref A
talking points to MFA political director Vasco Bramao Ramos
on August 8. Bramao Ramos was joined by his deputy, Jorge
Cabral, and Balkans advisor Carla Monteiro.
CDA reviewed the latest developments, including formation of
the Contact Group troika, and stressed our view that December
10 should be a firm end date for the negotiations, at which
point we and our European allies would have some decisions to
make. He solicited Bramao Ramos' assessment of current EU
thinking on the way forward.


3. (C) Bramao Ramos said the EU continues to consider
carefully a "Plan C," as he had told EUR A/S Fried in Lisbon
in mid-July. He reiternated his earlier point to A/S Fried

that the EU will likely need U.S. help in securing the assent
of key parties to an additional few weeks after December 10
in order to reach an acceptable agreement. There is "more or
less" an understanding within the EU on the need to be
flexible and imaginative. Asked what he meant, the political
director emphasized the EU's commitment to most principles in
the Ahtisaari plan. In private, though, the Ahtisaari plan
could no longer be viewed as the "absolute Bible" on Kosovo
(although he was quick to emphasize they wouldn't make that
point publicly.). If we go into this 120-day exercise saying
to Belgrade that there can be no outcome other than Kosovo
independence, then the 120 days is "useless."

Serbian leadership
--------------


4. (C) Bramao Ramos said it is critical that the U.S. and
EU continue to deliver clear, unequivocal messages to the
Serb leadership. President Tadic "tells us every time to do
what you have to do" and he will look the other way. PM
Kostunica, on the other hand, is more hard-nosed. When PM
Kostunica was recently in Lisbon, PM Socrates, FM Amado, and
Bramao Ramos spent a two-hour lunch telling the Serbian
leader that he should have no illusions -- independence for
Kosovo is the end game and there are no alternatives. He
should understand that Europe is opening its arms to Serbia,
but in turn Kostunica must be prepared to be flexible. This
inevitability may be sinking in with Kostunica, but so long
as he believes giving up Kosovo would end his political
career, he won't budge.

Russia
--------------


5. (C) Portugal, the political director insisted, has been
forceful in saying to the Russians that they must be part of
the solution. For them, Kosovo is a matter of principle and
precedent and, in opposing independence, they are asserting
that they are once again a major international player. There
is only a slim chance we can bring the Russians on board but
we have to try, Bramao Ramos urged.

Post-December 10
--------------


6. (C) Bramao Ramos was skeptical that any progress will
have been achieved by December. The EU will need to move

LISBON 00002046 002 OF 002


forward nonetheless at that point and will need a couple of
additional weeks "to get our act together." That will be a
very delicate time, he said, and if we don't do the right
things, the situation could go very wrong.


7. (C) The planned ESDP mission is fundamental, and it is
extremely important it be deployed on the ground alongside
KFOR, according to Bramao Ramos. If there is no UN Security
Council Resolution, however, it is Portugal's view that an
ESDP mission will be in violation of international law. "I
know that is not the U.S. view," he added, noting that he had
discussed the legal issues in depth with Legal Advisor John
Bellinger during the latter's visit to Lisbon in late July
(ref B). Asked whether this view was shared EU-wide, the
political director acknowledged a lack of EU consensus on the
topic. In any case, the EU will need to be creative. It is
critical to get the ESDP mission on the ground as soon as
possible and, in the absence of a UNSCR, the EU must find
another legal basis to do so. We haven't found one yet but
we will find a way to do it, Bramao Ramos vowed. There is a
much stronger coherence within Europe than two months ago on
the need to "do what we must when we must."


8. (C) The CDA asked Bramao Ramos to clarify why the EU
planned to seek several additional weeks beyond December 10.
Did he understand correctly that the extra time would not be
used simply to extend negotiations but, rather, to give the
key players time to develop and implement next steps?
"Exactly that," Bramao Ramos replied. There are certain
steps we cannot take before December 10 because they would
send the wrong signals and perhaps undermine the
negotiations. During the 120 days, we need to be entirely
focused on trying to reach agreement. After the 120 days, we
will be looking at managing a unilateral declaration of
independence by Kosovo and subsequent recognition by some
countries (at this point, it is unclear which ones). If we
play it well, it would be the endgame in the Balkans for the
next generation. He cautioned, though, that independence not
blessed by the UN would buttress those who support formation
of a "greater Albania."

EU decision-making
--------------


9. (C) The Charge asked whether the informal Gymnich
gathering of foreign ministers September 7-8 would endorse an
EU position on the way forward post-December 10. The
ministers at that meeting would certainly take stock of
developments to that point, the political director replied,
but they almost certainly will not reach any consensus on
Kosovo. The key meeting in that regard -- particularly in
determining the legal basis for the recognition of
independence and for the ESDP mission -- would be the
November General Affairs and External Relations Council
(GAERC).

10. (C) Bramao Ramos reported that FM Amado still hopes to
travel to Belgrade and Pristina, and is currently looking at
the end of August. His message to leaders in both places
will be that independence is inevitable and that they must
find a way to make it work.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) We were encouraged that there appears to be a
consonance of views with Portugal over the way forward, at
least at the strategic level. According to Bramao Ramos,
Portugal's position is that Kosovo independence is
inevitable, and Lisbon has been delivering that message to
both the Russian and Serb leadership. Although Bramao Ramos
was not prepared to write off the 120-day period, he was not
optimistic about the chance for a breakthrough. He appears
increasingly focused on managing what happens after December
10, particularly finding a legal basis for individual EU
members states to recognize Kosovo's independence in the
absence of a UNSCR and for subsequent deployment of the
planned ESDP mission.

Ballard