A/S SHANNON VISIT HIGHLIGHTS EU-LATIN AMERICA TIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001766

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NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV EAID PREL EUN PO
SUBJECT: A/S SHANNON VISIT HIGHLIGHTS EU-LATIN AMERICA TIES


Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ, Embassy Lisbon
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (SBU) During Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon's visit to
Portugal on June 25, he met with Portuguese government
officials and EU member ambassadors to discuss Cuba,
Venezuela, and Brazil. Overall, most agreed that the US
policy of supporting a Cuban-directed solution after Castro
would be the best way to ensure a rational, sustainable
government. Venezuela was widely seen as a volatile
interlocutor, dependent on Castro and increasingly vocal in
its anti-American rhetoric. Portugal's relationship with
Brazil has paved the way for wider EU engagement. Portugal
hosted an EU-Brazil summit on July 4 in Lisbon before the
official Troika meeting in Brussels on July 5. End summary.

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Cuban Transition: Who Can Assist?
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2. (C) Portuguese Senior Diplomatic Advisor to the Prime
Minister Jorge Roza de Oliveira told Assistant Secretary Tom
Shannon that Portugal wants to collaborate closely with us in
facilitating a Cuban transition to democracy, although
believed a wait-and-see approach is most appropriate at the
moment, given the uncertainty of current developments in
Castro's inner circle. The Foreign Minister's Diplomatic
Advisor Paulo Lourenco stressed that Portugal is not aligned
with Madrid and Rome on Cuba policy, and that the recent
meeting which renewed the EU's Common Position had
highlighted continuing divisions among member nations on
Cuba. Oliveira argued that Spanish FM Moratinos's visit to
Cuba earlier this year had been unhelpful to international
efforts to encourage a democratic transition.


3. (C) Ambassadors from EU member states, Canada and Japan
discussed Cuba and other Latin American issues over a working
lunch. Czech Ambassador Ladislav Skerik agreed that the EU
should do its part to ensure a space for dialogue in Cuba.
Japanese Ambassador Satoshi Hara remarked that the EU should
not overlook Asia's role in Latin America. While Europe
could play an important role in strengthening common goals
and democratic values, Hara stressed that Japan and other
Asian nations also play a role. He warned that, if
unchecked, China would pursue its national energy agenda
abroad by its own rules.


4. (C) Portuguese Director General for Foreign Policy Bramao
Ramos asserted that Portugal hoped other Latin American
nations could open the door for international support of a
democratic transition. He said Portugal will speak to
Brazilian and Venezuelan officials over the next two months
to see whether either would be able to convince a post-Castro
government to work with European partners in a transition.
While he allowed that Portugal does not have a close
relationship with Cuba, he was hopeful that other nations
could help facilitate a relationship in the future. A/S
Shannon encouraged Portugal's interest in dialogue with
Brazil and Venezuela, but was skeptical that Venezuela would
be interested in helping the international community aid a
transition to democracy. Bramao Ramos promised to keep us
posted on their Cuba-related consultations with Brazil and
Venezuela. Shannon noted that Chavez would probably align
himself with hard-liners in a post-Castro Cuba, arguing that
Chavez's interests would not be served by a democratic Cuba.

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Venezuela: Bark Worse than Bite?
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5. (C) Most agreed that Venezuela's volatile politics were
worrisome. Jorge Roza de Oliveira claimed that the majority
of Portuguese immigrants to Venezuela were anti-Chavez and
had suffered economic losses due to his administration's
policies. Dutch Ambassador Robert Jan van Houtum asked
whether we felt that Chavez's "bark was worse than his bite."
A/S Shannon responded that the U.S. has declined to engage in
a public war of words with Chavez, avoiding rhetorical
confrontation in favor of positive engagement in the region.
That said, Shannon stressed that Chavez was more than
rhetoric and was capable of actions that were dangerous and
foment regional instability.


6. (U) Bramao Ramos, who served as Portuguese Ambassador to

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Venezuela, remained hopeful that Venezuela could play a
constructive role. He mentioned that Chavez had a refueling
stop scheduled in Lisbon on June 26 and said it was unclear
who from the Portuguese government would meet him. (Note:
Secretary of State Cravinho later told A/S Shannon that he

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would meet Chavez at the airport. End note.)

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Brazil: Europe's Link to Latin America
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7. (SBU) Portugal hosted the first summit between Brazil and
the European Union on July 4 as an initiative to draw closer
to Brazil and Mercosul markets, and aims to make it a regular
event. EU ambassadors reported the group's interest in
focusing talks on biofuels, climate change, and poverty
alleviation issues. In response to one comment about
Brazil's role as a stabilizing force, A/S Shannon elaborated
on the growing division between Brazil and Venezuela's
economic interests. He stated that Brazil is interested in
maintaining control over a future energy pipeline
infrastructure around Latin America as a way to ensure
reliable access to energy resources. Bramao Ramos agreed
that Brazil's powerful economic potential and stable
government were reassuring to EU partners. Portugal looks
forward to enhancing relationships with both the Americas and
Africa during its six month tenure as EU President.

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Comment
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8. (C) A/S Shannon's visit attracted great interest from
senior Portuguese government officials. It was very helpful
in laying out U.S. objectives in the Western Hemisphere, many
of which the Portuguese share. GOP officials underscored
their determination to collaborate closely with us in laying
the groundwork for a democratic transition in Cuba and in
strengthening EU relations with Brazil.


9. (C) We will not be able to rely on Portugal to take a firm
line on Venezuela. The GOP treads lightly with Hugo Chavez,
motivated primarily by its concerns over the well-being of
the 500,000 Portuguese citizens who live in Venezuela.
Bramao Ramos is the only Portuguese interlocutor who has
suggested that Venezuela could be helpful on Cuba -- we are
not sure that that view is shared at higher levels.


10. (U) This message was cleared by Assistant Secretary
Shannon.
Hoffman