Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LISBON1492
2007-05-25 17:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lisbon
Cable title:  

PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECIN OFDP EIND EINV EPET ETRD EUN 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7153
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLI #1492 1451717
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251717Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5935
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0472
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1471
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001492 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO EUR/WE KEVIN OPSTRUP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECIN OFDP EIND EINV EPET ETRD EUN
PO, RS, YI
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW

REF: A. LISBON 01328

B. LISBON 01814

Classified By: TIFFANY McGRIFF, P/E OFFICER, EMBASSY LISBON,
Reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001492

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO EUR/WE KEVIN OPSTRUP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECIN OFDP EIND EINV EPET ETRD EUN
PO, RS, YI
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW

REF: A. LISBON 01328

B. LISBON 01814

Classified By: TIFFANY McGRIFF, P/E OFFICER, EMBASSY LISBON,
Reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A month before Portugal assumes the EU
Presidency and on the heels of the May EU-Russia Summit, PM
Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow May 27-29 to discuss
easing EU-Russia tensions and strengthening bilateral ties.
Socrates will also encourage Putin to support UNSC consensus
on Kosovo, according to an MFA official who added that a
Russian veto could result in a "disastrous outcome" and push
Kosovo to declare unilateral independence. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PM Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow on May 27-29 at
the invitation of President Putin and will stay at the
Kremlin, according to GOP sources. Socrates, who has
traveled extensively in preparation for Portugal's upcoming
EU Presidency, decided to go instead of FM Amado to
underscore the importance Portugal places on bilateral and
EU-Russian relations, MFA Director for European Affairs
Liliana Araujo told us. The Prime Minister will be
accompanied by a delegation of 53 business entrepreneurs and
officials including representatives from Portugal's
state-owned gas company Galp Energia, and aerospace systems
development company Edisoft.


3. (C) Socrates will focus on easing EU-Russia tensions and
laying the groundwork for the EU-Russia Summit it is hosting
in October. The Moscow agenda is heavy and includes an
agreement on an early warning system for potential energy
cuts by Russia. Araujo added that the GOP considers itself
better positioned to improve EU-Russian relations during its
presidency because Russia views Portugal as more even-handed
than Germany. Bilaterally, officials from Galp Energia and
Russia's state-owned Gazprom hope to sign a deal on
joint-exploration projects and liquefied natural gas
procurement (ref B). Portugal's Edisoft also hopes to sign an
agreement with the Russian space agency.


4. (C) Kosovo is also high on Socrates's agenda. According to
MFA political director Vasco Bramao Ramos, the GOP strongly
supports Ahtisaari's proposal for monitored Kosovo
independence and has made this clear to the Russians
repeatedly and at all levels. Socrates is expected to
reiterate the message that Russia needs to join consensus
soon on the UN Security Council Resolution. If not, Kosovo
may unilaterally declare independence, an act which Ramos
believes would be the "most disastrous outcome" and set an
unhelpful precedent for the region.


5. (C) While the GOP supports the Ahtisaari proposal, some
officials believe that the implementation process should not
be "rushed," as moving too quickly could make the Russians
less inclined to come on board. Many in the GOP doubt that
the UNSC resolution will be adopted by the end of May and
fully expect to inherit the Kosovo issue when Portugal
assumes the EU Presidency in July (ref A). The GOP is
therefore, according to Araujo, working on a contingency plan.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Socrates and FM Amado have traveled heavily in
preparation for the EU presidency. Their focus has mostly
been on building relationships with key players rather than
pressing any particular policy agendas or outcomes. That
approach is standard fare for the Portuguese in the foreign
policy arena, as they are rarely out front in staking out
positions on most global issues of importance. That is the
approach we suspect Socrates will take in Moscow, prodding to
see where progress can be made on the more problematic issues
in the EU-Russia relationship, while avoiding assertive
rhetoric both in public and private. The one issue he will
push hard on is Kosovo, as the Portuguese agree with us that
the Russians need to come on board soon in support of the UN
Security Council Resolution. Their biggest fear is a
unilateral declaration of independence by the Kosovars and
the consequences of such a move. END COMMENT.

Hoffman