Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LISBON1418
2007-05-22 07:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lisbon
Cable title:  

PM'S DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR DETAILS PORTUGAL'S EU

Tags:  PREL PO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2340
PP RUEHAG RUEHKW RUEHROV
DE RUEHLI #1418/01 1420742
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 220742Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5897
INFO RUCNMUC/EU CANDIDATE STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUCNMEC/MIDDLE EAST MULTILATERAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001418 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PO
SUBJECT: PM'S DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR DETAILS PORTUGAL'S EU
PRESIDENCY AGENDA

REF: A. A) HARRINGTON-WOHLERS 5/8/07 EMAIL

B. B) LISBON 557

C. C) LISBON 253

D. D) 06 LISBON 2269

E. E) 06 LISBON 418

Classified By: Ambassador Alfred Hoffman for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001418

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PO
SUBJECT: PM'S DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR DETAILS PORTUGAL'S EU
PRESIDENCY AGENDA

REF: A. A) HARRINGTON-WOHLERS 5/8/07 EMAIL

B. B) LISBON 557

C. C) LISBON 253

D. D) 06 LISBON 2269

E. E) 06 LISBON 418

Classified By: Ambassador Alfred Hoffman for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador on May 21, the
Prime Minister's senior diplomatic advisor said Portugal's EU
presidency priorities would comprise summits with Africa,
Brazil, India, China, Russia, and Ukraine. On internal EU
issues, the GOP's primary focus will be advancing progress on
the constitutional treaty -- any "constitutional" references
in the current text would likely have to be expunged,
although the GOP believes the Charter on Fundamental Rights
must be maintained. On the Middle East, Portugal does not
plan to press any particular agenda but would be prepared to
react to events on the ground. The Prime Minister plans a
mid-July trip to the region primarily to establish
connections to the key players. Roza de Oliveira stressed
Portugal's desire to work closely with us during the
presidency -- "transparency will be our watchword," he said.
End Summary.


2. (U) Prime Minister Socrates's senior diplomatic advisor,
Jorge Roza de Oliveira, invited the Ambassador to his office
on May 21 to lay out Portugal's EU presidency agenda.
Ambassador was accompanied by pol/econ counselor.

Summits
--------------


3. (C) Roza de Oliveira said Portugal would kick off its
6-month presidency with an EU Troika summit with Brazil on
July 4, followed by a dinner that evening to which all EU
heads of state and government had been invited. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel has already agreed to attend. (Note:
the MFA political director told us recently this would be
the first EU-Brazil summit, and Portugal hopes to
instutionalize it. End Note.)


4. (C) The EU will hold summits with India and China in
those countries. Asked what the agendas would be for the two
gatherings, Roza de Oliveira said they are still being
developed and promised to share them with the Ambassador once
finalized. With China, the arms embargo and their interest
in attaining market economy status from the EU would
certainly be discussed. The Ambassador asked whether climate

change would be addressed, noting that India and China have
in the past declined to sign on to international agreements
such as Kyoto, citing concerns about the impact on economic
growth. Roza de Oliveira commented that New Delhi and
Beijing are realizing that their current paths are having a
very pernicious impact on the environment.


5. (C) Roza de Oliveira confirmed Portugal's intention to
host a summit with Africa in early December. He said the two
sides have been working on a common strategy -- to be
endorsed at the summit -- covering joint action in a broad
range of areas, including human rights and energy. Asked how
Portugal planned to handle the issue of Zimbabwean President
Mugabe's attendance, Roza de Oliveira was dismissive,
claiming that the question of participation would resolve
itself. Portugal would issue invitations to European nations
plus Morocco, while the African Union would invite the
African participants. If Mugabe attends, Roza de Oliveira
surmised, the British Prime Minister would probably stay
away, but he would likely be the only European head of
government to do so. Mugabe is horrible, the diplomatic
advisor asserted, but there are other leaders of concern in
Africa as well. The Ambassador urged the GOP not to give
Mugabe a platform but, if he does appear in Lisbon in the
end, we hope the GOP and other European leaders will deliver
a firm message to him on governance and human rights.


6. (C) An EU-Russia summit will also be held on Portugal's
watch. Roza de Oliveira asserted that the Russians do not
truly care whether Kosovo gains independence, but are using
the issue to advance other interests. He noted that the
Prime Minister plans to travel to Moscow the week of May 27
both to strengthen bilateral relations and to lay the
groundwork for the summit. Roza de Oliveira surmised that
Portugal may be more successful at soothing EU relations with
Russia, as Moscow likely sees it as less of a threat than
Germany. The key, though, is for the EU to send Russia a
message that it cannot divide and conquer, that the EU stands

LISBON 00001418 002 OF 002


together as one when Russia has difficulties with any one of
its member states.


7. (C) The GOP hopes to hold a summit with Ukraine, but
details are still a bit "dodgy" because it is unclear who
will represent the Ukrainian side.

Constitutional Treaty
--------------


8. (C) The major internal EU issue that will consume the
GOP's attention will be shepherding the mandate on the
constitutional treaty that emerges from the June European
Council, according to Roza de Oliveira. Member nations have
had enough time to reflect after the French and Dutch no
votes. Portugal's goal is to host an Inter-Governmental
Conference that reaches agreement on the way forward by the
time of the December 2007 European Council. Roza de Oliveira
anticipated that any elements of the current text that "smack
of constitution" would have to be jettisoned. In addition,
the Charter of Fundamental Rights should be maintained, as
that is what makes the EU much more than an integrated
economic market, according to Roza de Oliveira, although he
acknowledged lack of consensus among member states on that
point. Five countries would be problematic during this
process: France and Holland, given the prevailing public
sentiments in those countries; Poland, which rejects the
current text, noting it was approved by the previous
government; the Czech Republic, which is hiding behind Poland
but likely will drop its objections if Poland comes on board;
and the United Kingdom, which wants major adjustments.

Middle East
--------------


9. (C) Asked about the Middle East, Roza de Oliveira said
the GOP would not be pressing a particular agenda but would
be prepared to react to developments on the ground. He noted
that PM Socrates plans a mid-July visit to Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Jerusalem, and Ramallah -- the
message he delivers will be shaped by the circumstances in
the region at the time.

Kosovo
--------------


10. (C) Roza de Oliveira expressed his hope that the UN
Security Council would agree soon on a Kosovo resolution and
that there would not be a unilateral declaration of
independence from the Kosovars. Kosovo is enormously
complicated, he said, as some EU member countries see it as a
precedent for other nationalist movements, and Serb militias
will get increasingly trigger happy if the situation doesn't
move in a direction they find acceptable.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) It was nice of Roza de Oliveira to reach out,
although we have previously heard (and reported -- see refs)
most of what he told us from other GOP interlocutors. On
Kosovo, the Portuguese support the Ahtisaari plan, and are
greatly concerned that the UNSC Resolution be approved soon,
in order to avoid the "disastrous" consequence of a
unilateral declaration of independence. The MFA political
director told us recently the Prime Minister plans in Moscow
to urge the Russians to come on board in support of the draft
UNSCR -- that is a message the Portuguese have delivered to
the Russians at all levels during the past several weeks.
The Portuguese do not believe the EU presidency plays a
determining role in the Middle East (which they say falls to
the Council and Solana),but they are preparing to play a
facilitative role, indicated by Foreign Minister Amado's two
swings through the region to build relationships with key
interlocutors, and the Prime Minister's plans to do the same.
Roza de Oliveira stressed that the Prime Minister would not,
however, be making a stop in Syria. Regarding the EU-Africa
summit, Roza de Oliveira confirmed that Portugal is willing
to hold its nose and allow President Mugabe to attend, as it
believes that is the only way to guarantee the widest
possible participation by African nations.
Hoffman