BOLIVIA CRISIS: CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL SPILLOVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 003853

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BO PE
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA CRISIS: CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL SPILLOVER

Classified By: POL/C ALEXIS LUDWIG FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)


1. (C) Summary: Peruvian observers are watching Bolivia's
political crisis, including its possible impact on Peruvian
investments, with great concern. Our foreign ministry (MFA)
contacts tell us their main worry regarding Bolivia is
stability but, while concerned about the government's
confrontational approach to securing a new constitution,
emphasize that Peru cannot interfere in a neighbor's domestic
affairs. Some analysts believe a Bolivian conflict could
spark an influx of refugees to Peru or fuel radical
indigenous nationalism among the large Aymara community
living on both sides of the border. End Summary.

The GOP Hopes for Stability
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2. (C) The GOP is anxiously watching events in Bolivia and
hoping the situation will resolve itself peacefully. The
Minister of Defense's top political advisor, professional
diplomat Ambassador Jose Antonio Bellina, told a visiting
U.S. military official recently that Bolivia was Peru's
current number one foreign policy concern. MFA Bolivia desk
officer Marco Antonio Santivanez told poloff that Peru's
primary interest in Bolivia is stability -- confrontation and
violence across the border can potentially undermine Peru's
economic and democratic success in recent years. Echoing
Ambassador Bellina's remarks, he added that the GOP is
particularly concerned about Peruvian investors, such as
BancoCredito and the construction firm Grana y Montero, which
have poured at least $100 million into Bolivia's economy.
Should the crisis jeopardize those investments, he said, the
GOP could be compelled to respond.


3. (C) In the absence of any such direct impact on Peruvian
interests, however, Bolivia's crisis is a domestic matter,
and Peru has no plans to intervene. MFA Director General for
South America Jose Luis Salinas acknowledged the
heavy-handed, confrontational manner in which the Government
of Bolivia was seeking to secure its new Constitution.
Nonetheless, he said, Morales was operating in a democratic
"grey zone" that did not yet merit a formal diplomatic
protest from Peru. Desk officer Santivanez said the
inter-American community could intervene only if a clear
redline were crossed, such as violent chaotic protests and
military repression, or if a legitimate GOB leader like Vice
President Alvaro Garcia Linera called for a broader regional
dialogue as a way out of the crisis. Santivanez clarified
that he had no information about any such initiative
underway.


4. (SBU) Peruvian analysts have noted that December 15
developments in Bolivia greatly increased the risk of
potentially violent confrontation and even civil war. The
opposing sides have dug themselves deeper in: President
Morales publicly presented the government's new Constitution
in advance of its final ratification by popular referendum
while leaders from Santa Cruz and other key departments
rejected the new constitution as illegal and formally
declared their regions' autonomy. These developments had
signficantly raised tensions, which could turn explosive.

Potential Refugees from Bolivia
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5. (C) Some Peruvians are concerned about an influx into
Peru of Bolivian residents fleeing from increasing
insecurity, political instability or bleakening economic
prospects. Both the Bolivia desk officer and the local
representative for the United Nations High Commission for
Refugees, Beatriz Roman, told poloff they saw the recent
flight to Peru of Sucre prefect David Sanchez (close hold) as
a possible harbinger of things to come. Should real conflict
or more widespread chaos erupt, many more Bolivians may
choose to leave Bolivia -- with Peru as a preferred
destination for obvious reasons. Roman said she had raised
her concerns with the MFA but found that the GOP had no plan
to deal with a possible refugee contingency from Bolivia.

Stoking Trans-Border Indigenous Nationalism
--------------

6. (C) Some Peruvian analysts fear the Bolivian crisis could
impact the large Aymara indigenous community that stretches
from Puno in Peru to the Bolivian altiplano. Our more
alarmist contacts speculate that a Bolivian conflict could
increase racial tensions in the region and even fuel an
Aymara nationalism that eventually threatens Peru's
territorial integrity. Although extreme, some analysts claim
that there is evidence suggesting outside actors may be
encouraging such tension. Citing a trusted source, one
foreign ministry official stated that Venezuela was paying
Peruvian Aymaras to travel across the border into Bolivia,
where they received Bolivarian indoctrination in ALBA houses
there. We heard indirect reports from the Human Rights
Ombudswoman in Puno that radical Bolivian-Aymara leader
Felipe Quispe was allegedly training Peruvian Aymaras to
fight in Bolivia. Recent press reports showed photos of
Quispe in Tacna visiting supporters of jailed
ultra-nationalist leader Antauro Humala. One Antauro contact
told poloff he knew nothing of the supposed military
training, but confirmed that Quispe was escorted to Tacna by
supporters from Puno. A recent edition of the Antaurista
newspaper from Tacna called for Aymaras to destroy the false
Peru-Bolivia border and establish an Aymara homeland.


7. (C) Mainstream indigenous leaders, while concerned about
the Bolivian crisis, are attempting to maintain an
arm's-length approach. A staffer for indigenous
Congresswoman Hilaria Supa told poloff that they fear a
Bolivian conflict would increase racial tensions in the
region. He added that their office had received dozens of
letters from Bolivian contacts asking her to express support
for President Morales.
MCKINLEY