MALAWI SITUATION REPORT NUMBER XX - DISASTER ALERT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000877

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID FOR DCHA/FFP PETERSEN, TAYLOR
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA ISAACS, GOTTLIEB, MARX, PRATT
USAID FOR AFR/SA LOKEN, COPSON
DEPT FOR AF/S, INR/GGI, PM/ISP
NCS FOR MELINE
PRETORIA FOR DISKIN, HALE, SINK, AND USDA/REYNOLDS
NAIROBI FOR ESTES, DEPREZ
GABORONE FOR BROWN, KHUPE
HARARE FOR PATTERSON, REED
MAPUTO FOR POLAND
ROME FOR FODAG NEWBERG, BROOKS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI SITUATION REPORT NUMBER XX - DISASTER ALERT

REF: LILONGWE - REPORT ON FLOODS/HAIL STORM IN SOUTHERN MALAWI


1. (U) SUMMARY: The first floods and hail storms of this rainy
season are reported to have occurred between November 7-16 in seven
districts: Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, Mwanza, Mangochi and Machinga
in southern Malawi, and Mzimba in the north. According to the
Department of Poverty and Disaster Management Affairs (DoPDMA) an
estimated 1,309 households have been affected with loss of houses,
roads and food items. However, the DoPDMA has indicated that most of
the damage is the result of the hail storm and not due to flooding
and has dispatched food items to the effected areas as of November
17, 2007. END SUMMARY


2. (U) GOM EFFORTS: The households affected by the recent floods
and hail storms require food assistance, and the DoPDMA indicated
that food items would be dispatched to Nsanje, Chikwawa and Phalombe
starting from November 17, 2007. The DoPDMA has made arrangements to
draw maize supplies from the nearest Agricultural Development and
Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) depots in the affected districts to
facilitate immediate and timely response.


3. (U) CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCY: There is currently 61,500MT
in the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) for emergency food aid that can
be drawn down and replenished.

4 (U) IO/NGO EFFORTS: The United Nations (UN) is closely monitoring
the developments with the DoPDMA and field officers, and will be
ready to come in with the necessary support to fill up any gaps upon
request, and the Country Representative of the World Food Program
(WFP) in Malawi indicated that the situation under control. Post
will continue to monitor this current situation through
consultations with GoM and partners in the affected area, and will
report further should the situation deteriorate or the GoM make a
request for assistance.


5. (U) HEALTH CONCERNS: No cases of cholera have been reported.

6 (U) WEATHER OUTLOOK: The recent weather forecasts by the Southern
African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF),NOAA, GFCSA, and
the Malawi National Meteorological Service all agree that Malawi has
a high chance of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall in the
southern and part of the central regions from January to March 2008.
If these predictions prove accurate, the chances of flooding and
water-logged conditions in the most flood prone districts (Nsanje,
Chikwawa, Karonga, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mangochi, Nkhata Bay, and
Salima) are significantly increased. It should be noted however,
that floods occur every year in Southern Malawi, especially in the
districts of Nsanje and Chikwawa, which are located in the flood
plains of the lower Shire valley. The Government of Malawi (GoM)
has initiated a campaign to try and move households located in these
flood plains to areas of higher elevation. Nonetheless, these
weather predictions call for preparedness of all stakeholders to
respond effectively and timely as the needs arrive.


7. (U) POTENTIAL EEFECTS OF FLOODING IN JANUARY-MARCH 2008:
Generally, December is a very critical month in the early
development stage of the maize crop in Malawi. By this time, the
maize would be approximately 30cm high and is very fragile to any
shocks. Flooding during this period can potentially wash away the
maize crop and require replanting later. A continuous above normal
rainfall from December 2007 or January through March 2008 also poses
a high risk of leaching of both organic and inorganic plant
nutrients. The GoM is in the process of distributing fertilizer and
send coupons in readiness for the upcoming agricultural season, and
any above normal rainfall during this period could potentially water
down the fertilizer that may have been applied to the crop, thus
effectively reducing the impact of the fertilizer and other input
investments. In addition, excess rainfall during this critical
period can potentially lead to water-logging and yellowing of the
maize crop, which can drastically reduce crop yield and effect the
food security situation for the next consumption year. This is not
to mention the risk of loss of lives, household property,

LILONGWE 00000877 002 OF 002


livelihood, and infrastructure that may result from any flooding
among the affected population.


8. (U) PREPARATIONS TO DATE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING: The UN and the
Red Cross have been updating their flood contingency plans in Malawi
since September 2007 on the basis of "Scenario 2" flooding
assumptions. Scenario 2 assumes that localized flooding will occur
as a result of heavy rainfall, but that this would be limited to a
relatively short period averaging 2-3 weeks. Scenario 2 also
assumes that an average of 15,000 households (equivalent to 83,000
individuals) spread out across the districts of Chikwawa, Karonga,
Machinga, Mangochi, Nsanje, Salima and Zomba, are likely to be
affected by flooding. While the district list is not exhaustive,
those districts mentioned above are felt to be the most vulnerable
and likely to be worst affected should a flood occur. Areas of the
flood contingency plan that have been updated include: 1) Contact
details for all disaster focal points in the GoM at all levels, UN
Disaster Management Technical Working Group, NGOs, and field-based
staff; 2) Information on in-country emergency stocks, their
locations and quantities; 3) Information on what each Agency (UNDP,
UNICEF, FAO, WHO, Red Cross Movement, and WFP) has planned at Agency
level in relation to how it will assist towards responding to a
possible flood disaster; and, 4) Annual Work Plan, bearing in mind
lessons from the 2007 review meeting.


9. (U) USAID officer Mark Visocky is the Mission's Disaster Relief
Officer. He can be reached at 265-1-772-455 (office),265-9-960-020
(mobile)

EASTHAM