Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LAPAZ3243
2007-12-12 23:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

EVO BLASTS U.S. TO RALLY INCREASINGLY CRITICAL BASE

Tags:  ECON PGOV PHUM PREL VN BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHLP #3243/01 3462318
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 122318Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5947
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 7418
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4782
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 8695
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5922
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3136
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3338
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 5121
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 5773
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0382
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0801
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003243 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL VN BL
SUBJECT: EVO BLASTS U.S. TO RALLY INCREASINGLY CRITICAL BASE

REF: LA PAZ 3215

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003243

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL VN BL
SUBJECT: EVO BLASTS U.S. TO RALLY INCREASINGLY CRITICAL BASE

REF: LA PAZ 3215

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Continuing his now nearly daily attacks on
the United States, President Evo Morales told an El Alto
crowd December 12 that "the U.S. Embassy is here to organize
a conspiracy" against Morales' government. Harkening back to
his days fighting "gringos" as a coca grower union leader,
Morales said he was "not afraid" of the fight ahead to
"defeat neoliberalism." He thanked Altenos and Pacenos for
past support and hinted of struggles to come (Note:
Opposition-led departments plan to advance autonomy measures
December 15, possibly sooner. End Note.)


2. (C) Summary Continued: El Alto in La Paz Department is
widely considered a solid bastion of Bolivian President Evo
Morales, but according to the current and former mayors, the
city is becoming increasingly disillusioned with its champion
and is loyal to no one. Altenos are publicly criticizing
Morales over their lack of representation in the federal
government. Current Mayor Fanor Nava said if U.S. trade
preferences (ATPDEA) are not renewed in February, it could
break Alteno support for President Evo Morales, although the
U.S. would also be blamed. Nava added Altenos would not
allow anyone, even the government, to stop the approval of a
new constitution. Cracks are also widening in Morales'
support throughout the Department of La Paz, according to La
Paz Prefect (Governor) Jose Luis Paredes. Paredes said
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is becoming the altiplano
scapegoat for "Evo's failures." He said a La Paz City
Council proposal to extend departmental autonomy is a "trick"
to lure disaffected former government supporters back from
the middle class. End Summary.

Evo Invokes Siege Mentality Against "Gringo" Subversion
-------------- --------------


3. (C) President Evo Morales unleashed a vitriolic verbal
assault on neoliberalism and the United States December 12.
He called for "internal unity" in order to defeat
neoliberalism, a scourge promulgated by the "North American

empire." Morales went beyond his typical U.S. conspiracy
innuendoes and bluntly linked the U.S. with opposition-led
autonomy movements: "What we are living through is not just a
provocation of some civic leaders and prefects (governors),
but rather a foreign intervention. I want you to know my
brothers and sisters that the U.S. Embassy is here to
organize a conspiracy against this process of change.
Personally, I am not afraid. I have been through many
fights, as they say with the gringos, in the Chapare (the
coca-growing area where Morales became a coca union leader)."
Perhaps cognizant of the need to rally his base,
particularly in advance of autonomy measures in opposition
states planned for December 15, Morales thanked the people of
El Alto and La Paz Department for coming to march when "I've
called on you." Morales also showed up in El Alto during the
height of Sucre's violent November 24 demonstrations.

El Alto Standing Down for Christmas, Sort Of
--------------


4. (C) El Alto Mayor Fanor Nava told PolOff December 5 that
the city of more than 800,000 is returning to calm after it
mobilized to "defend the constitutional process" during late
November clashes with the opposition in Sucre. He expected
no mass demonstrations between now and Carnival in early
February. Nava said Altenos perceived the constitution issue
to be closed with the passage "in general" of a MAS-drafted
constitution. He said Altenos were preparing to celebrate
Evo Morales' "Christmas present" constitution December 15,
the day after the formal deadline. (Note: A MAS-heavy
Constituent Assembly passed a constitution in a surprise
session December 9 per Reftel A. End Note.)


5. (C) However, when PolOff asked what would happen if
opposition states failed to recognize the constitution or if
the Senate or Courts tried to invalidate it, Nava said
Altenos could "mobilize immediately" to challenge "obstacles"
to the new constitution. "Don't underestimate the appearance
of calm here, we can mobilize very rapidly." He said Altenos
are not supporting the "vital" new constitution out of
support for President Evo Morales, but because it symbolizes
the struggle of the marginalized and has real economic
consequence to the poor, for example land distribution and
greater public "rights" to natural resources. A statement
representing the views of El Alto and La Paz social and
indigenous groups released after the November 24 passage of
the draft constitution called for groups to "defend the new
Constitution, which is the maximum aspiration of change that
we have hoped for."


6. (C) Nava acknowledged the fact that opposition Assembly
members not participating costs the constitution "some
legitimacy," but added that moving the constitution forward
was paramount. "The Media Luna (opposition-controlled states
of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija) has always been
against the constitution. In the end we can't let them stop
us." Only if Morales was acting to prevent "massive
violence" would Altenos allow a "postponement" beyond
established deadlines for a constitution and subsequent
constitutional referendum, and then only grudgingly and with
dissenters.

Governor: Altenos Home for the Holidays
--------------


7. (C) Former El Alto mayor and current La Paz department
prefect (state governor) Jose Luis Paredes told PolOff
December 6 that any new El Alto mass mobilizations would be
"very unlikely" until 2008. Paredes claimed El Alto civic
groups lacked the time and money to put together anything on
the scale of the Sucre mobilization, let alone motivate
politically "tired" Altenos to participate. Paredes said
Altenos who participated in the November 23-24 Sucre
demonstrations, largely recruited from the unemployed and
motivated by pay and pressure from local leaders, did not
stand their ground against opposition protesters. He said
Alteno leaders were handsomely rewarded for the mobilization,
but most rank and file Altenos received a mere 30 Bolivianos
($4) a day. Various Sucre opposition leaders told us that
even the infamously violent Ponchos Rojos group trucked in
from La Paz Department "ran away" when confronted by
opposition protesters, which could impact the government's
future ability to send its "shock troops" in to opposition
departments.

El Alto Demands Higher Representation
--------------


8. (C) Alteno groups have been demanding almost daily since
the November 30 meeting of the city's Interinstitutional
Committee that Morales appoint Altenos to three government
ministries: water, education, and labor. The Committee
complained that Morales initially appointed Altenos to head
all three ministries, but now Altenos are completely shut out
of ministerial posts. Some groups in the Committee did not
want to bother making demands and instead simply wanted to
cut off support to the government, arguing El Alto is only
useful to the government when it needs them to support
government policies and fight the opposition. Nava said
Altenos were furious Morales appointed ex-Vice Water Minister
Walter Valda, from the rival department of Chuquisaca,
instead of immediately appointing Patana, or at least another
Alteno. (Note: Morales finally fired Alteno Water Minister
Abel Mamani November 27 after photos surfaced of Mamani in
compromising positions with a half naked woman, not his wife.
End Note.)


9. (C) Nava denied vehemently that El Alto's demands were
motivated by personal political jockeying of El Alto leaders
or were an empty gesture to force the government into a
compromise. "There is no compromise on this issue; people
are fed up." He clarified Altenos were asking for "at least"
three ministries. Labor leader Edgar Patana is rumored to be
the favorite to replace fellow Alteno Abel Mamani as Water
Minister. Meanwhile, Altenos seem divided on exactly who
should represent El Alto in ministerial positions, as the
vice-president of the highly-influencial El Alto civic group
FEJUVE proposed a different Alteno for Water Minister.
FEJUVE President Nazario Ramirez told PolOff in October he
was the odds-on favorite for Water Minister, with Patana
favored for Labor, a position more suited to his background.
He said Morales was planning to change out "most" of his
ministers by January 22, with Water, Health, Agriculture, and
Labor being at the top of short list. According to Ramirez,
Evo believes changing the leadership is good for the movement
and that he wants to replace technocrats with political
true-believers.

"Friendless" El Alto Resents Being Taken for Granted
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Nava explained that El Alto "does not have any
friends." Nava explained Evo had an unwritten agreement with
El Alto for support after he became President and Morales
"has not made good for El Alto." Despite providing support
for Morales, he asserted opposition-controlled states receive
more assistance from the government. Nava warned this
support was not unconditional or indefinite. Nava said
disillusionment with the government is well underway in El
Alto and Altenos have already marched against government
ministries. Nava himself led thousands of Altenos October 15
to the Ministry of Education to protest the ministry's
refusal to release promised school construction funds. Nava
commented that "people are not just blaming Evo's ministers
and advisors anymore, they are starting to blame him." He
said discontent with Morales was a difficult admission for
people who want to believe in the President as a symbol,
which is the only reason Morales' El Alto poll ratings are
not lower. (Note: Nevertheless they dropped from 90 to 80
percent in November. End Note.)

Paredes: Evo's La Paz Bastions More Like Wildcards
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Paredes seconded growing discontent with the
government in El Alto, but rejected the idea that El Alto was
ever loyal to Evo per se. "El Alto is loyal to one thing:
Change. As long as Morales represents change he will have El
Alto's support." Paredes argued that Morales has and will
continue to fall short on substantive change, which is why he
needs to buy time with some symbolic change in the form of a
new Constitution. Paredes warned that El Alto has been a
double-edged sword for every ruler that thought they had its
support, including himself. He reflected that politicians on
the right such as Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (Goni) and Hugo
Banzer have won pluralities in El Alto. "Altenos are
practical and have short memories."


12. (C) El Alto labor leader Patana told PolOff that despite
its fiery anti-capitalism, sometimes anti-U.S. rhetoric, the
El Alto Regional Workers Center (COR) is also a pragmatic
organization, which is loyal to the interests of El Alto
above any ideology or politician. The love for Evo is real,
but symbolic. Altenos take their marching orders from local
leaders, according to Patana, and these leaders are
increasingly frustrated by slow pace of progress, government
corruption, and being taking for granted by national
politicians: "we (not Evo) decide if we march or not."

Cracks in the Campo
--------------


13. (C) Paredes explained that support for Morales, while
still considerable, was "dividing" in the La Paz Department
countryside after two years with "their champion" in power
and nothing to show for it. He asserted the federal
government has spent "nothing" on La Paz or El Alto, and
echoed Nava's complaint that "most federal programs are going
to the interior." Paredes said this was folly, as Morales'
spending in opposition strongholds has not gained him any
popularity at the expense of base support in the altiplano.
Paredes suspected that Morales was hoping La Paz farmers
would give him credit by association for department (state)
projects, although Paredes spends significant time explaining
these projects are not federally administered on La Paz
television.


14. (C) Paredes projected Morales' decision to push through
legislation November 27 that guts the La Paz state budget by
52 percent will further alienate him to La Paz residents. He
said prior to the passage of the controversial law, which
would redistribute funds from departments, Morales told him
he would make up most of the cuts to La Paz Department by
supporting state projects with federal funding. But soon
afterwards the Finance Ministry publicly announced it would
not make up any of the lost revenue to any department with
other federal funds. Paredes said Morales mislead him and
does not trust he will be following through on his promise.
(Note: Morales and Paredes were once colleagues in the
Bolivian Congress. End Note.) When project funds start
drying up, Paredes plans to direct peoples' complaints to the
Presidential Palace.


15. (C) Congressmen Guillermo Beckar Cortes (La Paz) told us
that many people on the altiplano campaigned and contributed
to Evo Morales' campaign and "feel abandoned now." Morales
promised these people representation and "some he even
personally promised jobs," but has alienated many indigenous
and peasant farmers by "using people from prior
administrations." They have given Morales the benefit of the
doubt, according to Beckar, but "their patience is running
out."

Middle-Class Defections Well Underway
--------------


16. (C) Although his base is starting to doubt him, Beckar
said Morales is in far more advanced stages of decline with
former supporters in the middle class. Beckar, himself a
congressman from a middle-class district in La Paz, has left
the party and is now an independent. Beckar noted, however,
that the opposition is not picking up many of these
defectors. Paredes said a La Paz City Council's December 11
proposal for a referendum on departmental autonomy was a "MAS
trick" designed to appeal to these disaffected middle-class
Pacenos. He added the department-wide referendum was beyond
the City Council's jurisdiction and "pure symbolism."
Paredes said because the terms of "autonomy" would be defined
within the constraints of the controversial new draft
constitution, it would offer no significant challenge to the
centralism demanded by the ruling MAS party. (Note:
Oppositon-controlled states are planning to declare autonomy
in defiance of the controversial new constitution. End Note.)

Rural La Paz Blaming "Chavez for Evo's Mistakes"
-------------- ---


17. (C) Paredes claimed rural La Paz residents are tired of
Morales' perceived indifference to his indigenous and peasant
base, particularly their lack of representation in federal
government at the expense of ideologues and technocrats
Although increasingly critical of Evo himself, Paredes said
rural communities are increasingly complaining about the of
"corrupting influence " and bad advice from ideologically
extreme advisors from Venezuela. "People are blaming Chavez
for Evo's mistakes."

Perception vs. Reality in Alteno Mythology
--------------


18. (C) PolOff asked Nava to explain anti-U.S. sentiment in
El Alto despite our significant investment in El Alto
development. He said the United States was at a considerable
public relations disadvantage in El Alto because we speak in
facts, but Altenos speak in "symbolism." He said the reality
that the Bolivian government has not submitted an extradition
request for Goni does not stop Altenos from believing we are
holding up the process. Although the facts are presented
fairly well in the newspapers, many Altenos cannot read or do
not trust the "opposition" media. Nava said legal arguments
and complex political discourse are intricacies largely lost
on Altenos. In Alteno mythology Goni represents evil and Evo
is good. Overcoming that mythology, which also equates the
U.S. as "imperialist" and exploitive requires rewiring the
world view of people. Nava explained that despite the
development assistance El Alto receives from the U.S.,
Altenos can't "see it" because it is distributed in small
projects and training throughout the city. He suggested
large infrastructure projects would make a stronger impact.
He also suggested celebrating U.S. assistance, including
extension of trade preferences, in a "big show. If you don't
have a big show, Altenos will not give you any credit."

ATPDEA Threatens Unconditional Evo Love
--------------


19. (C) Nava claimed one issue in El Alto in which facts
trump anti-U.S. mythology is trade preferences (ATPDEA).
Factory owners have done a good job explaining the importance
of U.S. preferences to their employees with a simple message:
no ATPDEA, no jobs. If ATPDEA is not extended in February,
Nava predicted Altenos would initially blame Morales
directly, rushing to protests in La Paz and concretely
parting ways with their erstwhile idol. However, he
suggested Morales' team would quickly and effectively deflect
blame to the U.S. Ultimately, Nava said the government and
U.S. will share Altenos wrath, which "will be very
considerable." He said Altenos scarcely know about the
Millennium Challenge Fund, but would blame the U.S. entirely
if the Bolivian application is rejected. The difference, he
explained, was between "something that provides them a living
and something that only affects them hypothetically."

Comment:
--------------


20. (C) Evo's latest appearance in El Alto signals that he is
aware of his vulnerability and that he will make sure to
maintain that support. Using the U.S. Embassy as a
rhetorical target is, while not new, reaching new heights.


21. (C) Comment Continued: Claims of local El Alto leaders
like Patana that they do not take orders from Evo is at least
partially bravado; the truth is Evo still has significant
power in El Alto. Although Morales' stock may be declining
within his own base, his descent began from an almost
absolute level of indigenous/peasant support in 2005. A
recurring El Alto theme cited by both Nava and Paredes is
that perception is more important than reality. In the rough
and tumble world of El Alto, Altenos identify themselves as
survivors of unfair treatment from everything and everyone
outside city limits. That perception of outside persecution
increasingly appears to include the current national
government and even their champion, Evo Morales. Residents
of La Paz and particularly El Alto seem inclined to channel
their frustrations with the government at Evo's advisors.
But, they seem to slowly be seeing cracks in their hero's
armor. Passing the constitution will only appease Evo's base
for finite period of time before they renew demands for
substantive improvements to their lives, or, at a minimum,
representation in the national government. End Comment.
GOLDBERG