EVO BACKS HUGO THREAT TO TURN BOLIVIA INTO VIETNAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002954

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL VN
SUBJECT: EVO BACKS HUGO THREAT TO TURN BOLIVIA INTO VIETNAM

REF: A. LA PAZ 2830


B. LA PAZ 2949

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In an interview released November 4,
Bolivian President Evo Morales supported Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez's threat to turn Bolivia into another Vietnam for
forces that might attempt a coup against Morales. Media
pundits and opposition leaders vehemently criticized the
statements as an assault on Bolivia sovereignty. Alleged
Venezuelan involvement in the Bolivian takeover of Santa
Cruz's Viru Viru Airport further ignited criticism of the
Bolivian-Venezuelan relationship. Venezuelan "imperialism"
has stayed in the headlines since, fed by heated exchanges
between opposition and government officials, an alleged
attack on the Venezuelan consulate in Santa Cruz, and a
scandal involving $11 million in missing Venezuelan
micro-credit loans. Foreign Ministry sources contend the
handling of the Viru Viru takeover is universally considered
(behind government doors) to have been a significant error
that is costing the government public support. Another
Foreign Ministry insider added that Evo and his inner circle
are genuinely afraid of being removed from power, and are not
just using the issue as a rhetorical tool to rally support,
distract from domestic problems, or curry favor with Chavez.
End Summary.


2. (U) Bolivian President Evo Morales defended Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez's October 14 remarks about defending
Evo from coups or assassination attempts. In an interview
with Chilean daily La Tercera released November 4, Morales
echoed Chavez's comments about turning Bolivia into a second
Vietnam should the U.S. attempt to unseat Morales and
expanded the analogy: "If the empire meddles in Latin
America, Latin America will become a second Vietnam."
Morales also dismissed Bolivians who took offense to Chavez's
threat as "oligarchs, conservatives, and pro-imperialists."
He asserted "observers" have been "knocking at the door" of
the Bolivian military since 2006 without success, apparently
implying foreign powers have been plotting Morales' downfall.
He said the military is unresponsive to such overtures
because commanders have changed mentality and are against
dictatorship. Opposition Deputy Fernando Messmer
(Podemos-lower house) responded November 5 to Morales'
statement with "indignation and shame" for "destroying the
country" by "following the same line as Chavez."

Chavez Chic Loses Luster; Opposition Rallies Around
Sovereignty
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3. (C) Morales enters the fray following more than two weeks
of silence regarding Chavez's controversial statements, while
opposition and government leaders traded insults and spin in
the press. Evo's comments are sure to increase media and
opposition criticism regarding Venezuela's presence in
Bolivia, which still has not died down since the alleged
involvement of Venezuelan troops in the October 18 takeover
of Santa Cruz's international airport. Chronology follows:

--October 14: Apocalypse Not

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to "turn Bolivia
into a new Vietnam" should the Bolivian oligarchy or anyone
else try to kill or oust his ally President Evo Morales. In
a broadcast from Cuba honoring Che Guevara, Chavez added the
Venezuelan people would not "stand by with their arms folded"
if Morales is attacked, rather "what you will see is not
going to be the Vietnam of ideas ...it will be, God forbid,
the Vietnam of arms, the Vietnam of war." Chavez further
accused the U.S. of sabotaging efforts by the Bolivian
Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution, thereby
providing an excuse for coup. Opposition and media pundits
took strong offense to Chavez's specific "meddling" and
attacked the idea of any foreign government using Bolivia as
an battleground on sovereignty grounds.

--October 18: Viru Viru Involvement Backfires

Bolivian military and national police took over Santa Cruz's
Viru Viru International Airport October 18 (ref a),causing a
massive backlash of locals to reestablish civilian control.
Although the incident ended peacefully October 19, fallout
from the supposed involvement of Venezuelan uniformed
military in the takeover remains a volatile and debated
issue, with some members of the opposition accusing the
Venezuelan military of orchestrating and participating in the
takeover while the government maintains a small group
Venezuelan troops were at the airport to escort Bolivian
scholarship winners to study in Venezuela. Santa Cruz Civic
Committee leader Branko Marinkovic accused Chavez of
"fulfilling his threat" about turning Bolivian into Vietnam.
The issue motivated protesters and inspired a slew of
editorials damning Venezuelan "interference."

--October 21/22: Prefects Rally Against Imperialism
(Venezuelan)

Cochabamba Prefect (Governor) Manfred Reyes published a
full-page screed in prominent newspapers against Morales,
calling on him to "tell your commander Hugo Chavez that
Bolivia still has some dignity left and to respect Bolivian
sovereignty. Reyes characterized the Viru Viru standoff as
resistance to a "brutal repression" engineered by the
"Venezuelan military" with Morales' complicity. Reyes said
any "intruder that dares to think of Bolivia as another
Vietnam, should know that Bolivians are not willing to accept
that international humiliation." Another half-page October
22 advertisement signed jointly by five of nine Bolivian
prefects (Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Tarija, Beni, and Pando)
called for the removal of "all foreign military forces that
are intervening in the country's internal matters." Although
the statement uses generic references to foreign troops, it
is clearly aimed at "interference of the Venezuelan
Government in the militarization of the departments and
repression against civilians in Santa Cruz and other place of
the country." The next day Minister of Defense Walker San
Miguel asserted the request was political and unfounded, as
there are no foreign military troops that fit the statement's
description.

--October 21: Monkey Racism

Presidency Minister (Chief of Staff) Jorge Quintana called
Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas "racist and xenophobic" after
the Prefect charactered Chavez as a "big monkey, little
dictator, coup monger, and coward." Quintana said the
remarks implied Morales was the "little monkey."

--October 22: Oligarchs Serving Molotov Cocktails?

Unidentified assailants apparently threw a quarter stick of
dynamite and a Molotov cocktail, respectively, at the
Venezuelan Consulate and a residence housing Cuban doctors
during the early morning hours. There were only minor
damages and no injuries. Both Bolivian and Venezuelan
government officials condemned the attack, which they blamed
the "oligarchy." Bolivian Presidential Spokesman Alex
Contreras condemned "this type of cowardly violent action,
which is designed to create a climate of tension and panic."
(Comment: There was no/no such outrage concerning the October
17 demonstration at the our embassy, where similar dynamite
derivatives were tossed over the embassy wall and the crowd
attempted to break through the embassy gate. End Comment.)
Government Minister Alfredo Rada claimed the attack was
inspired by Prefect Costas' "xenophobic" remarks. Opposition
leaders, including Podemos leader Jorge Quiroga, denounced
the attack as a self-inflicted smokescreen to implement
Chavez's "Vietnamization" policy.

--October 22: Venezuelan Micro-credit Scandal

Unrelated to the fallout from Viru Viru, an article in
leading daily La Razon investigated the apparent
disappearance of $11 million in Venezuelan micro-credit funds
for Bolivia. Although the loan funds were approved,
Venezuela apparently decided to revert the loan. According
to the National Confederation of Micro and Small Businesses
of Bolivia (CONAMYPE),227 recipients only received a portion
of the credit, but they were forced to sign contracts for and
their names appear on official lists as receiving the entire
amount.

--October 23: Defense Minister Concedes Chavez Should Simmer
Down

Referring to his October 15 remarks, Defense Minister Walker
San Miguel admitted the Bolivian Government had asked Chavez
to tone down his public comments considering current
political and regional Bolivian sensitivities, particularly
in regard to "healthy" Bolivian disdain for "foreign
interference and respect for national sovereignty." San
Miguel also rejected the presence of Venezuelan troops in
Bolivia and any role they might have in the internal affairs
of Bolivia.

Gauging the Damage
--------------


4. (U) Almost two weeks after the Viru, Viru incident, fiery
editorials and political charges continue. Opposition
Senator Walter Guiteras accused the Bolivian Government
November 1 of subservience to Chavez, who is using Bolivia to
confront the U.S. "This country has shown it will not be
disposed to tolerate grand tyrants ... or people who meddle
in Bolivian affairs." He accused Chavez of trying to "buy
off our conscious," implying Morales was already bought off.


5. (C) A reliable foreign ministry contact in the office of
the Vice Foreign Minister told us that Morales' ramblings of
coup and assassination plots are not just rhetoric to rally
the masses, distract from domestic problems, or curry favor
with Chavez (although they also serve this purpose),but are
based on genuine fears. He said Evo's inner circle is fed a
constant diet of conspiracy theories from Chavez that "keep
them up at night." This contact also said Morales' inner
circle directed the Viru Viru takeover without prompting or
influence from Venezuela, and any Venezuelan presence was
tertiary and inconsequential. He said the government on "all
levels" understands this was a "huge mistake" that handed the
opposition an easy victory and an issue it can exploit and
organize around for the foreseeable future. "Going in (to
Viru Viru) and leaving the next day looks bad, there's no
getting around that and everyone realizes it." Another
Foreign Ministry contact told PolOff that careerists in the
MFA considered the Chavez statements a "horrible mistake"
that everyone ignored and hoped would go away. The
Venezuelan presence at Viru Viru played perfectly into the
opposition's hands and will have a lasting negative impact on
the government's public support. "Even Bolivians in
(government bastion) El Alto care about sovereignty issues;
we Bolivians are very sensitive about this."

Comment
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6. (C) It is unclear what Evo hopes to accomplish by
supporting Chavez's inflammatory Vietnam comments. Coming
simultaneously with accusations about U.S. coup mongering and
connections between the Ambassador and Colombian paramilitary
(ref b),Post is bracing for the next outrageous accusation.
We remain concerned that this latest and increasingly
strident volley of hyperbole may be setting the stage for
concrete anti-democratic or anti-U.S. actions on the part of
the Morales government. Chavez's Bolivia as Vietnam remarks,
followed by the appearance of Venezuelan troops at Viru Viru,
gave opposition leaders plenty of ammunition to blast
President Morales by association and rally supporters against
Venezuelan "imperialism."


7. (C) Many viewed the government's sending the military
into Viru Viru airport, the heartland of the opposition, as a
trial balloon to see if, a) the military would follow Evo's
orders and b) the opposition would be cowed by the show of
force. While the military proved loyal, the opposition
certainly was not intimidated. In fact, the quick military
withdrawal the following day in the face of massive civilian
demonstrations may reflect the conventional wisdom that the
military is not willing to use force to impose Morales' will.
Even though the airport takeover backfired badly, and the
government is taking a beating in the press over its close
ties to Venezuela, Evo's latest rhetorical bravado reflects
his determination to have his way.
GOLDBERG