PUNCHES AND PROTESTS IN CONGRESS AND SUCRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002333

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: PUNCHES AND PROTESTS IN CONGRESS AND SUCRE


Classified By: Acting EcoPol chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 b,d

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Summary
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1. (C) Fisticuffs in Congress forced the opposition and
ruling party Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) delegates to
retreat to separate buildings on August 22. The MAS
delegates were later reconvened in the Vice Presidential
offices and voted by "majority of those present" (that is,
the majority of the MAS congress members only) to send the
Senate an impeachment case against four of Bolivia's five
Constitutional Tribunal judges, who were thereby
automatically suspended. The suspension leaves Bolivia with
no working Constitutional Tribunal, as the one remaining
judge cannot reach a quorum; therefore Bolivia now has no
constitutional oversight body. Nor does Bolivia currently
have a functioning Constituent Assembly, as protests in Sucre
have led to the indefinite closure of the Constituent
Assembly. La Paz civic groups, including FEJUVE El Alto
(which in the past has shut down El Alto and was responsible
for organizing much of the 1-million-person-plus protest
against moving the capital from La Paz) are traveling to
Sucre on August 23 to "defend the Constituent Assembly."

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Violence in Congress
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2. (C) Violence broke out in the lower house of Congress,
where on August 22 opposition and MAS members of congress
exchanged blows. After the session disbanded, MAS
representatives of the lower house adjourned to the Vice
Presidential offices where they voted (61 out of 68, with no
opposition members present) to send an impeachment case
against four of Bolivia's five Constitutional Tribunal
magistrates to the Senate. This formal declaration means
that the four judges are immediately and indefinitely
suspended: Emboff spoke with one magistrate who confirmed the
suspension as of the afternoon of August 22.


3. (C) Although Vice President Garcia Linera has already
convoked a session of congress to elect replacement judges,
it is unlikely that the MAS will have the required two thirds
vote of the combined lower and upper houses needed to elect
new judges. The suspension of the magistrates, with no
substitutes currently available, effectively leaves Bolivia
without a legal body providing constitutional interpretation
and oversight. The suspension comes at a particularly
critical time, when many of the issues that were being
debated in the Constituent Assembly (before the Assembly
itself was suspended) are open to constitutional
interpretation. It also leaves President Evo Morales's
executive branch with more unfettered powers.


4. (C) In a meeting the evening of August 22, Senate
President Jose Villavicencio, a member of the opposition
party National Unity, told Emboffs that it will take up to
five days for the senate to receive the case and that once it
does he will ensure a speedy trial (a week or so by his
estimates) and the 'correct' verdict (innocent). Although
the Senate would need a two-thirds majority of those present
to convict or acquit the judges, if a two-thirds majority
cannot be reached the judges are found innocent and
reinstated to the Constitutional Tribunal. The judges are
also innocent and reinstated if the Senate decides there is
not enough evidence or finds that there was no crime to begin
with. However, Senator Villavicencio also told Emboffs that
the MAS has threatened to bring two other cases against the
magistrates, if the first impeachment case does not succeed
in removing them from office.

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Violence in Sucre
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5. (C) In Bolivia's constitutional capital Sucre, protesters
clashed with police on August 22, leaving at least ten
wounded. The protests were aimed at delaying a meeting of
the Constituent Assembly: at stake for Sucre is the possible
relocation of the full capital from La Paz to Sucre
(currently only the judicial branch is headquartered in
Sucre.) Sucre wants this issue to be considered by the
Constituent Assembly, which is tasked with drafting Bolivia's
new constitution. However, on August 15th the ruling
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party delegates in the
Constituent Assembly and some opposition representatives from
La Paz voted by simple majority to remove this issue from
consideration in the Constituent Assembly. Since decisions
in the Constituent Assembly require a two-thirds majority,
and since many observers detected the heavy hand of Evo
Morales's executive branch interfering in the
supposedly-independent Assembly, Sucre residents declared the
vote illegal and began a series of protests and strikes which
have brought the city to a standstill. On August 22 there
were also rumors that MAS assembly members intended to
approve (again by simple majority) the draft constitution
they had submitted to Congress, which, among other changes,
would allow for indefinite reelection of the President.


6. (C) There is potential for increased violence, especially
since Emboffs have learned that El Alto civic groups are
traveling to Sucre on August 23, in order to "protect the
Constituent Assembly." Press reports indicate that
Constituent Assembly members representing La Paz were
harassed as they left the Assembly August 22 after the
sessions were suspended. Reportedly singled out for insults
and physical aggression was Humberto Tapia, the
representative of the La Paz Red Ponchos (a militant
indigenous group.) A MAS assembly member from Santa Cruz
resigned from the Assembly on August 23, citing frustration
with the way the Assembly was progressing (or not
progressing). Contacts in Sucre inform us that Santa Cruz
residents are among the protesters in Sucre. The combination
of protesting Sucre and Santa Cruz citizens and civic-group
"defenders" from La Paz could prove to be explosive. In a
meeting with Emboffs on August 22, Santa Cruz Business
Federation (CAINCO) President Gabriel Dabdoub said that he is
fearful Sucre is on the brink of serious violence and that
"with one or two deaths there will be no more game rules to
follow."

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Battle Lines and Battle Plans
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7. (C) Although there is no widespread violence throughout
Bolivia, tensions are on the rise. Many observers feel that
President Morales' race-based rhetoric is dividing the
country. The east-west split between the richer, whiter east
and the poorer, more-indigenous west grows wider every time
Evo flexes La Paz muscles against the media luna (the eastern
departments of Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz, Tarija and,
increasingly, Chuquisaca, which did not vote for autonomy in
the 2006 referendum but has been shoved into the embrace of
the media luna by the MAS's strong-arm techniques over the
question of the capital's location.) Unfortunately, Evo's
policies serve to underline differences within Bolivia rather
than highlight similarities (note: Evo still enjoys high
approval ratings on average, but there is a noticeable split
between east and west and city and rural: the west and the
countryside remain Evo's base of power. End note.)

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Comment
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7. (C) In his meeting with Emboffs, Senate President Jose
Villavicencio opined that Evo's weakest point is the economy
and inflation in particular; Evo's price-cap policies suggest
that he is aware of this weakness. Meanwhile, opposition
leaders inform Emboffs that their goal is to keep President
Evo Morales "unbalanced but not unhinged"...a fine line to
walk. As his popularity takes hits and formerly supportive
groups such as the cooperative miners begin to draw away from
the MAS, Evo may begin to feel himself backed into a
corner--and he is the type to come out swinging. End comment.

GOLDBERG