TENSIONS HIGH AHEAD OF AUGUST 6 INDEPENDENCE DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002129

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: TENSIONS HIGH AHEAD OF AUGUST 6 INDEPENDENCE DAY

REF: LA PAZ 2020

Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Tensions are high ahead of Bolivian Independence Day
on August 6 and Armed Forces Day on August 7. Seven of nine
departmental civic committees issued a declaration on August
1 calling for the resignation of five ministers, a two-thirds
majority vote for the new constitution, and departmental
autonomy. Congress is in heated negotiations to extend the
Constituent Assembly (CA) until December 14 before the August
6 deadline, and the GOB is pushing ahead with its plans to
hold a military-indigenous parade in Santa Cruz on August 7.
Despite public calls for calm from Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben
Costas and Armed Forces commanders, the possibility for
violence in Santa Cruz exists. End summary.

--------------
CIVIC COMMITTEES ISSUE COMMUNIQUE
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting held in Tarija on August 1, the civic
committees of all of the country's departments except La Paz
and Potosi signed a document asking for the resignation of
the hydrocarbons, economic development, finance, and rural
development ministers, as well as the deputy land minister.
In the document the committees demand that the MAS party
comply with the special law through which the Constituent
Assembly was convened and Article 232 of the Constitution,
both of which stipulate that all articles of the new
constitutional text must be passed by a two-thirds majority
vote. Additionally they demand the implementation of the
departmental autonomy system in accordance with the July 2,
2006 referendum results, respect for the country's
departmental division, respect for private property, and
respect for the current departmental royalties' allocation
system. The committees decided to suspend all demonstrations
(cabildos) until after independence day. They also issued a
formal invitation to President Evo Morales to attend a
meeting schedule for August 8 in Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz
Civic Committee Advisor Jimmy Ortiz told Emboff the main
point of the document is to lay down a unified marker stating
that the committees will not accept a new constitution that
has not been approved by a national referendum.

--------------
CONGRESS CLOSE TO A CA DEAL
--------------


3. (U) As of August 2, congress has not formally approved
the extension of the CA beyond August 6, despite agreements
between the MAS and PODEMOS within the CA to extend it until
December 14. However, an agreement seems close at hand. The
biggest sticking point has been PODEMOS' request for two
separate referendums; one on the dissenting articles, and a
second referendum on the total document (as envisioned in the
existing convoking legislation). The MAS has said it wants a
single referendum, or both referendums conducted on the same
day. Vice President Garcia Linera continues to broker the
congressional negotiations.

-------------- ---
ARMED FORCES AND INDIGENOUS PARADE IN SANTA CRUZ
-------------- ---


4. (C) Army Commander Freddy Bersatti announced that only
the national flag will be allowed in the combined military
and indigenous parade in Santa Cruz on August 7 (Armed Forces
Day). Minister of Government Alfredo Rada later contradicted
the commander, saying that all symbols would be allowed.
Many residents of Santa Cruz consider the parade a
provocation, and some observers are predicting violence.
Reportedly over 30 indigenous groups (including the radical
poncho rojos) will march with the military. The National
Private Entrepreneurs Federation (composed of eastern and
western business chambers) issued a manifesto on July 31
warning that "any blood shed during the August 7 military
parade with indigenous participation will be the national
government's responsibility." Bolivian armed forces sources
have told Post that although the Air Force will provide extra
security, there is a chance for violence but that it should
not be widespread because the parade will be contained within
the El Trompillo military airport grounds. The Santa Cruz
Civic Committee is scheduled to meet the evening of August 2
to define its stance regarding the parade.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) With the civic committees postponing cabildos until
after August 6 and congress nearing an agreement to extend
the CA, the remaining hot spot is Santa Cruz and the
military-indigenous parade scheduled for August 7. Of
particular note is the participation of the Oruro and
Chuquisaca civic committees in the August 1 Tarija meeting.
Chuquisaca is increasingly aligning itself with the eastern
departments (media luna) due to their support for moving the
capital (Reftel). NAS will temporarily move its assets out
of El Trompillo airport ahead of August 7. Despite public
calls for calm from Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas and Armed
Forces commanders the possibility for violence in Santa Cruz
exists. End comment.
GOLDBERG