MAS STEAMROLLS CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY COMMISSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001619

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MAS STEAMROLLS CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY COMMISSIONS

REF: LA PAZ 436

Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Krishna Urs
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) appears to have
adopted a new strategy to steamroll their proposals through
the Constituent Assembly's (CA) twenty-one commissions,
violating the voting rules agreed upon on February 14, 2007
(reftel). The strategy is aimed at preventing PODEMOS, the
main opposition party, from getting its proposals out of
commission and into the plenary. PODEMOS appears willing to
confront this MAS strategy in the CA and in the streets.
However, most analysts believe the MAS wants a prompt
conclusion to the CA so that new elections can be called as
soon as possible (the MAS wants elections in early to mid
2008). Recognizing that PODEMOS could use their new strategy
as a tactic to stall progress in the CA, the MAS may abandon
it simply to ensure that their election aspirations are not
compromised. End Summary.

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The Rules of the Game
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2. (U) According to the CA's voting rules, commissions are
supposed to issue their formal reports by absolute majority
(fifty percent plus one),but commissions may also publish
minority reports. The plenary can then debate both the
majority and minority reports. To prevent PODEMOS, the main
opposition party, from issuing a minority report, the MAS is
splitting its delegates in some commissions; some MAS
delegates vote for the MAS, primary proposal while others
vote for an alternate non-PODEMOS proposal. With this new
strategy, no proposal receives an absolute majority as
required under the CA's voting rules.

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The New MAS Strategy
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3. (U) On June 7, in the first and perhaps most important
commission called "Vision for the Country," the MAS supported
two proposals, its own and that of a small minority party.
The party affiliations in the commission breakdown as follows:

Political Number of
Party Delegates
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MAS 8
PODEMOS 3
CN 2
AS 1
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Total 15

(Note: The AS and CN are small parties with only six and five
delegates respectively in the entire CA. End Note).

The "majority" MAS proposal won with six votes. PODEMOS'
three delegates supported their own plan. The AS party put
forward a plan that garnered the support of the two CN
delegates giving the plan a total of three votes, equal to
PODEMOS. The two MAS delegates who did not vote for the
MAS, primary proposal then cast their vote for the AS plan.
By splitting its votes the MAS was able to prevent the
commission from publishing the PODEMOS minority report. The
MAS has used this strategy in other commissions as well.

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The Opposition's Counter-Strategy
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4. (C) On June 11, poloff spoke to a PODEMOS delegate to the
"Vision for the Country" commission who explained the
opposition's strategy. PODEMOS has filed a formal complaint
within the commission and with the CA's Directive arguing
that the MAS has violated the CA's voting rules (reftel).
(Note: The Directive is comprised of eleven delegates, seven
of which are MAS. End Note). According to the delegate, the
directive may meet late June 11 or June 12 in the morning.
Given the crucial nature of the Vision commission, PODEMOS
has decided to halt all work until it receives a "favorable"
ruling. If neither the commission nor the directive rule in
PODEMOS, favor, PODEMOS is prepared to resort to "regional
action," meaning they would activate their base in the four
eastern departments where the MAS faces its stiffest
opposition. PODEMOS is also prepared to counter the MAS by
adding language into its proposals within commissions that
the MAS cannot split its vote.

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Comment
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5. (SBU) The MAS has clearly violated both the letter and the
spirit of the February 14 voting rules agreement, an
agreement that took seven months to achieve. However, the
accord actually does not address the scenario of commissions
where no absolute majority is achieved. Nonetheless, there
are reasons for the MAS to back down and allow the
commissions to revote. If the MAS does not back down, the CA
will be delayed further by opposition protests coming from
within and without. Most analysts believe the MAS wants a
prompt conclusion to the CA so that new elections can be
called as soon as possible (the MAS wants elections in early
to mid 2008). Recognizing that PODEMOS could use their new
strategy as a tactic to stall the CA, the MAS may abandon
their strategy simply to ensure that their election
aspirations are not compromised. End Comment.
URS