AMBASSADOR MEETS PREFECT, JOURNALISTS, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001396

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/AND
TREASURY FOR SGOOCH
MCC FOR AKIRSCHENBAUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON EAGR BL
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS PREFECT, JOURNALISTS, AND
LAUNCHES USDA PROGRAM


Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) On May 17, Santa Cruz Prefect Costas told the
Ambassador that he predicts a poor outcome for the
Constituent Assembly (CA),and suggested that the
opposition's strategy would be to seek redress before the
Constitutional Tribunal if the MAS violated the terms of the
Assembly's convening legislation. Costas argued that the MAS
would push the CA to complete its work by August, even if the
MAS had to strike a deal on the constitution's content, in
order to call elections while President Morales remains
popular. Noting that in the absence of courts he himself
could eventually face jail time, Costas indicated that
Morales could consolidate power by attacking and limiting the
power of other branches and levels of government, including
by making threats and false allegations against the prefects.
He lamented that the Bolivian opposition lacks leaders,
vision, and unity, and argued that delaying elections was the
opposition's only hope of defeating the MAS. In a lunch on
May 17, Santa Cruz media representatives expressed concern
that extending ATPDEA benefits would reward the Morales
administration's bad behavior and complained that Santa Cruz
receives insufficient attention from the USG. Later the same
day, the Ambassador participated in the media-covered launch
of the USDA-supported National Fruit Fly Control Program.
End summary.

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MAS Wants Elections, Opposition Wants Time
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2. (C) In a May 17 meeting, Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas
told the Ambassador that he predicts the Constituent Assembly
(CA) will have a poor outcome. He said that Article 70
approved by the MAS constituents violates the CA convening
legislation's voting rules, and that because any citizen
could present a claim before the Constitutional Tribunal, the
GOB sees the Tribunal as a threat. He added there are rumors
that the MAS lacks as few as six votes to achieve the amount
necessary to enact its agenda. He argued that the only
recourses for the opposition are to defend the autonomy
referendum and the convening legislation's requirement of a
two-thirds vote by seeking redress before the Constitutional
Tribunal.


3. (C) Costas argued that the MAS would push the CA to
complete its work on time (by August) even if MAS
constituents had to strike a deal on the content of the
constitution, so that the MAS could call elections while it
continues to rate high in the polls. He argued that the
results of the CA are less important to the Morales
administration than elections, explaining that the Venezuelan
constitution lacked radical elements, but Chavez had
consolidated power anyway. He indicated that Morales could
consolidate power by attacking and limiting the power of
other branches and levels of government, including by making
threats and false allegations against the prefects to have
them jailed. He lamented that the Bolivian opposition lacks
leaders, vision, and unity, whereas President Morales and
Vice President Garcia Linera are true believers in their
cause who are not seeking fortune through public service and
know where they want to go. He added that the opposition's
only hope of defeating the MAS in elections is to delay the
process long enough to show that the MAS government could not
produce results.

LA PAZ 00001396 002 OF 002



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Santa Cruz Media Representatives
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4. (C) On May 17, five Santa Cruz media representatives
expressed concern that extension of Andean Trade Promotion
and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) benefits to Bolivia would
reward the GOB's questionable political behavior (influenced
by Venezuelan President Chavez) and poor performance on coca
eradication. In response to the Ambassador's question, three
of the five said they believed, on balance, that the U.S.
should extend the benefits. The journalists added that coca
growers in the Chapare are an important source of financing
for the MAS political movement. They complained that the
opposition in Santa Cruz does not receive sufficient support
from the U.S. government, while the Venezuelan government is
doling out checks to mayors throughout the country (and
particularly in the opposition-led eastern regions) to
support the MAS' re-election campaign. However, they noted
that the Catholic church is a natural ally, with whom they
could seek to check the MAS' agenda. The Ambassador replied
that the Embassy supports many programs in Santa Cruz,
including with the prefecture. However, our relations are
with the central government, not with regions.


5. (C) The journalists emphasized that they want other
countries to think of the Santa Cruz opposition not as
separatists, but as defenders of democracy. They noted that
they had seen proof of fraudulent identification cards issued
with Venezuelan financing, and were worried about voting
fraud in the likely 2008 presidential elections, which they
predicted Evo Morales would win. However, they expressed
hope that a bad constitution may not be approved by public
referendum, as polls in April and May had shown a declining
trend of support for the MAS-led constitutional agenda.

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Ambassador Launches USDA-Sponsored Program
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6. (U) Subsequently, the Ambassador launched the
USDA-sponsored National Fruit Fly Control Program, along with
Tarija Prefect Mario Cossio, a representative from the Santa
Cruz prefecture, regional U.S. Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service (APHIS) Director Karen Sliter, and
Bolivia's animal and plant health service (SENASAG) National
Director Marcos Jordan. The program, which received USD 1.7
million of financing through PL-480 Title I and is being
technically supported by the APHIS office in Santa Cruz, will
be implemented by SENASAG over three years to reduce fruit
fly populations, improve fruit yields, and facilitate
Bolivian exports. The event, which show-cased U.S.
cooperation with the Bolivian agriculture ministry and small
producers, received significant press coverage and was
attended by around 150 people.
GOLDBERG