Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LAHORE715
2007-11-26 14:37:00
SECRET
Consulate Lahore
Cable title:  

PML-N WILL NOT BOYCOTT ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR AMGT PK 
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FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3530
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4115
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0012
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0062
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0215
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0563
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RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 4487
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000715 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR AMGT PK
SUBJECT: PML-N WILL NOT BOYCOTT ELECTIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: Michael T. Jordan, Acting Principal Officer,
AMCONSUL Lahore, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000715

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR AMGT PK
SUBJECT: PML-N WILL NOT BOYCOTT ELECTIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: Michael T. Jordan, Acting Principal Officer,
AMCONSUL Lahore, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S) SUMMARY: According to a close confidant of Nawaz Sharif,
the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) does not/not intend to
boycott elections but will continue publicly and privately to
threaten to do so in order to extract concessions from the
government by insisting on the selection of a new, impartial
chief Election Commissioner and the postponement of elections
scheduled for January 8 to March 2008. In addition, Nawaz
refuses to reconcile with the senior PML-Q leadership, hopes to
see himself as the next Prime Minister, his brother Shahbaz as
Punjab Chief Minister, and plans to constitutionally remove
President Pervez Musharraf from office in cooperation with the
PPP if the two parties combined have a two/thirds majority of
seats in the next National Assembly. Euphoric over Nawaz's
return, PML-N officials clearly are exaggerating their electoral
prospects, but it is telling that Musharraf's own party leader
already is courting Nawaz. End summary.


2. (S) The day after Nawaz's return to Lahore, Poloff met with
former PML-N Punjab Member of the Provincial Assembly Rana
Mashhood Ahmed Khan to discuss recent political developments.
Khan said "off the record" that the PML-N will not carry out
with its threat to boycott elections scheduled for January 8 but
will continue to threaten to do so in order to extract
concessions from the government. At the top of the list is the
appointment of a new and impartial chief election commissioner
and the postponement of elections until March 2008. Nawaz
intends to use the additional two months to criss-cross the
country in order to build up PML-N's organization strength and
Nawaz's popularity after eight years of exile. Khan also said

that Nawaz believes the Saudi royal family intends to continue
to pressure Musharraf to ensure that the PML-N faces a level
electoral playing field.


3. (S) Nawaz also told his party leadership that he will not
reconcile with certain key Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leaders,
especially former Prime Minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain,
former Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, former
Federal Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed and former Federal
Minister Religious Affairs Minister Ijaz ul-Haq. According to
Khan, Shujaat telephoned senior PML-N leader Chaudhary Nisaar
Ali Khan last night and requested a meeting with Nawaz but the
latter refused to entertain it. Khan said that Musharraf's PML
party is disintegrating and to reinforce his point claimed that
already 21 PML members of the just dissolved National Assembly
are in negotiations with Nawaz to jump ship.


4. (S) Khan also predicted optimistically that if the PML-N wins
the national and Punjab provincial elections, Nawaz would become
Prime Minister and Shahbaz would again become Punjab Chief
Minister. If Nawaz's prior convictions prevent him from holding
the position, Shahbaz would then take the PM position. In any
case, Nawaz seems to believe that his presidential pardon
removes any legal impediments to his holding elected office and
that Saudi pressure would ensure a decision favorable to him.
Nawaz filed papers today to run for a National Assembly seat,
his wife Kulsoom Nawaz will run for another National Assembly
seat, Shahbaz will run for the National Assembly as well as for
a Punjab Provincial Assembly seat, and his wife Hamza Shahbaz
filed papers to run for a National Assembly seat. Khan also
said if the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and PML-N combined
garner a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, Nawaz
intends to collaborate with Benazir Bhutto to constitutionally
remove Musharraf from the office of President.


5. (S) Bio Note: Khan, an IV alumnus, and his family are close
and trusted confidants of Nawaz Sharif. He was born on August
26, 1966 in Lahore and is an attorney by profession. The night
before Nawaz returned to Lahore police forces detained him in
the possible opening stages of a crackdown. From the jail he
was able to call Nawaz in Saudi Arabia and told him of his
plight. Nawaz told him to hold tight and that he would inform
the Saudi royal family. Several minutes later he claimed that
he was released, and he credited Saudi intervention not only for
his own release but for the avoidance of a massive government
crackdown similar to what occurred the days preceding Nawaz's
first attempt to return on September 10. Khan eventually joined
up with Nawaz at the airport and accompanied him to the Data
Gunj Buksh Shrine. He claimed that Nawaz was very emotional and
could not help but cry upon his arrival in Lahore.


6. (U) In a related development, Nawaz Sharif held a press

LAHORE 00000715 002 OF 002


conference after filing his election papers and denied that
there was any American pressure or role in his return to
Pakistan. He said he would cooperate with other opposition
parties on electoral strategy, would not permit Pakistan to
become another Iraq, and refused to join hands with the PML.
Nawaz claimed that Musharraf failed to end terrorism in
Pakistan, said that the religious parties were not extremists,
and publicly warned that elections would be boycotted if the
demands of the APDM were not met and accused the ruling party of
already rigging the election.


7. (C) There were only limited reports of political violence in
Lahore and nothing spiraled out of control. However, the son of
former Chief Minister Pervez Elahi, Moonis Elahi, was the target
of a small mob of lawyers who pelted him with rocks and sticks
as he departed the election office after filing his nomination
papers. One source claimed that police nearby did nothing to
intervene-an astonishing development if true since police
inaction in this instance would have been unimaginable only
several days ago. Television cameras caught the event on tape.
Reports indicate Moonis escaped serious injury.


8. (S) Comment: PML-N leaders clearly are euphoric over Nawaz's
return, and their predictions of electoral victory are both
exaggerated and premature. Other than providing monetary
assistance, we doubt the Saudis will engage any further on
Nawaz's behalf in Pakistan. Most interesting, however, is the
fact that Musharraf's party chief, Chaudhry Shujaat, is already
courting Nawaz.


9. (U) Embassy Islamabad cleared on this cable.
JORDAN